Belmont Marathon

[Bill Lyster]

Here is the best mile info for Belmont:

Based on this info the main challenge to AP should be Madefromlucky who last raced at Belmont at 9 furlongs and perhaps Frosted. Note that AP has 2-3-4th best mile times at or near lead and MFL presses with the best mile. Frosted could be a presser, but if so his closing kick should be compromised by Matchup principles.

I'd put AP and MFL on top of Frosted with the top 2 for show as well. Maybe add the late running Tale of Verve for 3rd as well.

I projected the matchup on the next post.

[Bill Lyster]

Using AP's Derby splits and differentials for 4 furlong and 6 furlong calls any horse that ran previously vs slower times will have to speed up if it is an E, EP or P positionally. I added the differentials, subtracted the total time from the closing fraction and projected a 9 furlong time for each horse. If a horse was Sustained, I used its final time at 9F because these horses are not pace dependent, IMHO. Of course if they try to stay closer to the projected pace their closing kicks will be slower, UNLESS, they are still improving which at this time of year is always something to consider/fear.

I would not expect to see the OP fractions repeated with so little up front contention. Materiality's best is slower than the Derby. This analysis gets MFL first and AP either 1st or 2nd with at least a 3 second gap to Frosted's best.

The far right column is the best mile pace of race used in the marathon. The closest to the lead considering pace of race are AP and MFL.

Don't be confused by Tale of Verve's 8th positioning in the Preakness. IT WAS LAST in its field, so the bottom five may be a long ways off early hoping for the front runners to crack.

Good luck to you all,

[pilot]

Thanks for posting Bill.

Wayne

[dogkatcher]

I read where Tale of Verve and Carpe Diem will NOT run in the Belmont and that a small field of 8 is most likely.

[Bill Lyster]

Latest article has TOV running per trainer, but Carpe Diem and one other are out. I have the 8 who I think are running, some have multiple lines shown in my analysis.

[dogkatcher]

Thanks Bill, good to hear TOV still in, I need better sources

[Bill Lyster]

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...-tale-of-verve

[KBROD]

Chef-de-race has their figs up for the race

[gavin12]

Bill, thank you for both of your thorough posts. The story re. another Triple Crown possibility will be decided on Saturday. It seems Baffert is able to squeeze more from his lemons than Pletcher has ever been able to! Had BB been on East Coast he would likely have 2-3 Triple Crowns on his mantle by now.

[Bill Lyster]

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster

Here is the best mile info for Belmont:

Based on this info the main challenge to AP should be Madefromlucky who last raced at Belmont at 9 furlongs and perhaps Frosted. Note that AP has 2-3-4th best mile times at or near lead and MFL presses with the best mile. Frosted could be a presser, but if so his closing kick should be compromised by Matchup principles.

I'd put AP and MFL on top of Frosted with the top 2 for show as well. Maybe add the late running Tale of Verve for 3rd as well.

I projected the matchup on the next post.

Note here that the only horses running Saturday that have run first or second in either a Grade 1 or Grade 2 are AP, Frosted, Tale of Verve and Madeforlucky. If Grade 1 horse win Grade 1 races, these are my exotic players. Oops I missed Materiality. Probably cannot win, but could hit the board.