Philadelphia Park Data for Decision Making

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

Bill,

Respectfully, citing someone else's work in an answer to a proposition under discussion (Layoffs, FTS), as you did with the Follow Up excerpt of Doc's - is not the same thing as 'research', at least not the same as digging into a collection of data (either an electronic database or a collection of DRFs as they did in the old days) to prove, disprove or qualify a point. Not minimizing the 'research' you did to search through the FU issues to find a relevant opinion once held by Doc - which may or may not be currently valid, or as valid now as then - just that it strikes me FTL may have been referring to 'research' with some hard, current and of long duration numbers behind it (re hit rate, or average mutuels of FTS winners). He does seem to have provided that info for Layoff horses.

I accept that you trust and believe and are a messenger for what Doc has written on various subjects - but Doc himself (sometimes) changed his opinion on things he once wrote, changing with the times or sometimes with newly provided information. I also believe a lot of what Doc and others wrote, but usually only until I can prove or disprove it for myself. I once jokingly asked him if he would reimburse me for losing bets I made based on implementing my understanding of what he wrote in the Follow Up. He laughed and declined (i.e. it's up to me...)

And for whatever it's worth, it occurs to me that one difference between Layoff horses and FTS is that the population of the former would likely be much older than that of the latter, FTS probably tending to have a much higher percentage of 2 YO than the entire population of Layoff horses FTL cited. For FTS, all you have is workout patterns (and opinions about breeding and trainers, etc), while with Layoff horses who have run before, you have their previous ability and previous form cycle info, as well as their laid-off time frame to use as a factor when identifying them as Win contenders or not, today.

FWIW.

Ted

Sorry Just as you feel you are the new Doc and have the right to change
his work I feel his words are the basis of my success
I ask myself why research what has never been published.
Spend my time gathering data and proclaiming that you have the new answers is fine if that
is what you need . to make your living

I prefer to believe what I read in copyrighted journals from a man who
put his name and beliefs in solid written text

Bill

[Bill V.]

To Ted
To me I have read and heard on Copyrighted Sartin audio and videos
That Doc's guidelines were to work all races. Only after you have selected
pace lines and contenders should you decide whether to pass the race
or bet the race. One of the guidelines is not to bet races with more than
1 First Time Starter or more than one horse with no past performance lines
I never heard or read any guidelines about not betting horses
off layoffs

To me the difference between a FTS and a Layoff horse is that with a layoff horse you have a
pace line to rate the horse against the other horses in the race
and that rating is what you should base your decision to bet the horse or not

Oh I'm sorry I guess its taboo to quote the follow ups now
\Too bad that I have been censored now because now I am reduced to
He said but I'll change what he said because I am forced to be put into I'll post it because I'm important status he said that use your judgment
and base it on being in the top 3 VDC

Censored
Bill
what a shame
Money talks Bs walks

[noddub62]

what the H*** is going here?

Take a break!

Bud

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Sorry Just as you feel you are the new Doc and have the right to change
his work I feel his words are the basis of my success
I ask myself why research what has never been published.
Spend my time gathering data and proclaiming that you have the new answers is fine if that
is what you need . to make your living

I prefer to believe what I read in copyrighted journals from a man who
put his name and beliefs in solid written text

Bill

You are mistaken: I do not feel I am the new Doc. I too am a student who feels Doc's words are the basis of my success. Anyone is free to use, or not use, any parts of RDSS they choose, or free to continue using Val2 or Val3 or any other tools delivered in the pages of the Follow Up.

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Oh I'm sorry I guess its taboo to quote the follow ups now
\Too bad that I have been censored

You have not been censored. You or anyone can quote Follow Ups.

Look: Doc published lots of research in the Follow Up originally conducted by others, some of it even turning into whole software programs like Synergism (Purdy) or TPR (Hambleton). Plus plenty of articles practically every other issue. To think that no new research or new ideas would ever emerge from studying data or from refining methods of using Doc's tools after 2001 when Doc ceased his own work, is perhaps similar to the statement made by someone around 1900 that the US Patent Office should be closed because everything useful had surely already been invented.

Ingenuity (e.g. Doc's) begets inspiration and further ingenuity. I look forward to re-discovering jewels I once read in the Follow Ups, perhaps seeing them anew given more experience or new evidence, and thanks for contributing some of these.

Ted