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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race' |
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04-19-2016, 11:49 AM | #11 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Hey
Hey Mitch
If you want , I can post the full PP's for the race . Is original on top and phase 1 on bottom okay or do you want another screen too? Bill |
04-19-2016, 12:04 PM | #12 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Off
Hi Pook
This is from the pace line selection chapter in the original Pace Makes The Race, Tom Hamilton is writing, "If the condition of the track was other than fast, this may or may not affect the total pace rating , we can adjust for slow surfaces , but some horses just refuse to perform in the wet. In this particular case , I would look at the second line if the distance is similar and it was as good effort. The same can be said for an extremely fast or hard track with say a variant of 6" |
04-19-2016, 12:21 PM | #13 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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Bill V.; I'm good with what was there ( PP's) and would have had it and a good line. As Doc said on many horses a different line will still get the horse in the top two such as this case therefore you can't necessarily say one particular line is correct. One is better but both can be correct Bill.
If you can't get 3 screens perhaps you can get two. I seldom use the BL /BL one for one horse and two different lines. My preference would be for the other two also in your case. Check with Ted on the number of screens because I believe he made a post on how to set this up. Also my CP went from 3 to 1 one time for no reason and he helped me get it back through the settings. Using the multiple screens does help with line selections and when looking at E & L, I also have the TPR which I look at in certain situations in selecting lines and decisions etc. You can do a little more with that then say a BL BL etc. as far as interpretation so I usually consult it. While it was only Phase 1 it still remains a valuable tool and should be in everyone's toolbox. Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 04-19-2016 at 12:25 PM. |
04-22-2016, 09:07 PM | #14 | |
3-3-1 - 3-3-2
Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 394
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Quote:
After my analysis Bill statement hold true to form. However I do agree with others using Lpr 80+ to solely eliminate contenders may not be prudent. Total Race Ran: 40 - keep in mind races carded are 5 - 7 furlongs 100% of the races won the LPR was above 80+ Early - Wire to Wire winners: 11 - 27.5% Early Presser: 7 - 17.5% |
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04-22-2016, 09:50 PM | #15 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Small Test
I plan on doing a test
Something was mentioned to me in a PM I recently picked a line 5 back which was the acceptable line The problem is the line before the line I used had a LPR of 54 All the races before that line were turf sprints. The PM said If I was working the race the day of the paceline The only paceline would be the paceline with a 54 LPR We went back and forth and I think we agreed that the 54 LPR race was aberrant. But It got us thinking should we use a race for a pace line with a sub 80 LPR or are we just projecting that there are no signs the horse has the ability to run a 80 lpr TODAY I have been thinking of running a test of how many lines selected by Ted's BLT/preceptor show a LPR of less than 80 and that horse wins the upcoming race. Here is an example In this race from Sunland Park The BLT Preceptor best of last 3 picked line 3. That line shows a 79 LPR If this horse wins I will mark it as a such A win line with less than a 80 LPR I would like some help . If you use the BLT/Preceptor and you get a winning horse with a paceline LPR under 80 Please note it for me , Thank you Bill |
04-22-2016, 10:41 PM | #16 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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sunland
Here are the pace lines for the horses in Saturdays Sunland Card
These are horses whose pace lines were selected by the BLT preceptor so a LPR less than 80 Lets see how they run Results 1 win Horse 1 race 10 Sundland 4/23 UPDATED Race 4 5.5 Dirt CLs 7.5 N2-Y 3+F Horse 1 Line 2 127 days ago 78.6 LPR 6/1 Race 5 6.0 Dirt CL 7.5 N2-6m 3 + Horse 4 Line 1 28 days ago 76.8 LPR 6/1 Race 7 8.3 Dirt CL 3.5 N1-4M 3+ Horse 2 Line 3 157 days ago 79.1 LPR 7/2 Horse 4 Line 3 25 days ago 68.3 LPR 3/1 Race 8 6.5 Dirt CL 7.5 N1-6m 3+f Horse 3 Line 1 39 days ago 74.5 LPR 10/1 Race 9 8.0 Dirt CL 5 N2-M 3 + Horse 3 Line 2 35 days ago 78.3 LPR 5/2 Horse 5 Line 1 17 days ago 79.2 LPR 3/1 Horse 4 Line 3 32 days ago 64.5 LPR 8/1 Race 10 6.0 MS32 3+ Horse 6 Line 1 35 days ago 78.4 LPR 5/2 SCR Horse 1 Line 1 20 days ago 78.7 LPR 4/1 Wins @.80 $3.60 Horse 8 Line 3 109 days ago 72.2 LPR 10/1 Horse 7 Line 1 11 days ago 75.0 LPR 15/1 Scr Total horses 10 Total wins 1 Last edited by Bill V.; 04-23-2016 at 09:53 PM. |
04-22-2016, 10:45 PM | #17 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,163
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Hi Bill I did 8 at Aqu today all winners over 80. I'll help you out.
Tim |
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