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04-05-2010, 08:31 PM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: NYC and San Diego
Posts: 627
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Bread & Butter Race
These are the ones that don't take a long time to handicap but they present great betting opportunities and help keep you in the black. I think it took me about 5 mins. to cap this.
This is a G3 6.5f poly sprint for older horses. The avg. winner of this race puts up a BRIS speed fig of 101. In looking at the field, I eliminate the #3 and #8 as not being fast enough on the poly to compete here. The #3 just ran a 99 but in a turf mile, a completely different animal. The 5 horses left have all come close to running the par speed fig. The #5 won a G2 race @ 7f as a 3yo and the #7 has shown in 2 G1 races, one as a 4yo and one as a 5yo, again at 7f. I consider 7f to be a pretty specialized distance. Pacelines used: Last race on the #'s 2,4,7, the 6f tandem. 3 back on the #6. For the #5, I decided to use his last, as going back to that 98 as a 2 yo was a bit too far for me. This horse must have some soundness issues as he hasn't run much as a 2 through 4 yo. Equalize distances with no adjustments needed as total energies are within range. 6.5 f @ SAX is winning off the SP screen so I look at that first. I see Mona on the wire, with Hallelujah & Free trailing. The EXDC shows Hallelujah just nosing out Mona & Free. I wasn't 100% comfortable that Hallelujah might not hold on and that Mona would get up in time. I was getting 10-1 on Mona and 8-1 on hallelujah, with Free @ 7/2. I decided to bet Mona and Hallelujah to win and put them both on top of Free in the exacta. I then reversed the exacta with Free on top. As you'll notice, I added the #6 on top in the exacta. I will confess a paranoia of sorts with both Mike Mitchell and Jeff Mullins on this circuit. I did not like the favorite Alpha, esp. at 5/2, at all. Hallelujah had the lead through the stretch, gave it up, and Mona got up by a hd to pay $22.20 for every $2. Free held place over the favorite and the 2-7 exacta paid $54.10 for every buck. Here's my NJBETS record for the race. I xxxx the amounts as I'd rather not post them in public forums for obvious reasons: Date Type Description (Win/Lose) Location Debit Credit 04/04/2010 Bet Race 8 SANTA ANIT $xxxx Exacta 2,4/ 7 NET $xxxx $xxxx 04/04/2010 Bet Race 8 SANTA ANIT $xxxx Exacta 6,7/ 2,4 NET $xxxx 04/04/2010 Bet Race 8 SANTA ANIT $xxxx Win 2,4 NET $xxxx $xxxx There wasn't much uncertainty in the paceline selections here and this is a race where a nice profit could be had with only 5 contenders and literally 5 mins. of capping. These occur more often than you think. Hope this is useful. Good capping to all. . |
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