Problem Races Discussion

[Lt1]

Late kick that horse finished 2nd in his last. This was a weak mdn race which I passed.

[Bill V.]

High LateKick

I am looking forward to seeing a screen shot of your pace line choices for Sar race 3

In the Sar race 9 It looks like you used the last line on all the horses except
the winner who as Tim points out last ran 227 days ago

I have a theory about these "what happened races" but It might be just an illusion,

[Latekick]

I may have confused the race numbers Tim, ill check when i get home.

[Latekick]

And Bill would you happen to have the EVD card for tonight?
I was wondering if i could go over something and get your opinion on one of the evd races tonight

[Latekick]

GUYS, very sorry for the confusion, in the 3rd race i had the $22 winner and it actually made my day.
The race ethat i had the problem with was the FOURTH race today at Saratoga.
The winner didn't receive a line from me because he had showed nothing hi past two and i thought there were better options in the race. SO ITS RACE FOUR, let me know how you did because this was problem race for me

[Lt1]

Hi Grant I played this race and got the win. On #2 I used line 5 with this reasoning L1 7F not a comparable to todays 5.5f, L2 yielding turf today firm, L3 same as line 1, L4, trouble race, L5 beats 1/2 the field and as far back as I wanted to go. On bl/bl he was 5th tiered but according to my model 5.5f on the Mellon turf favors lp horses and the 2 was #2 lp. and #1 fx. Also there was a trainer angle that I noticed which was going back to the jockey the last won on it see line 9 Rosario and going off at 10-1 made it 1 of my 2 win bets.
Tim

[Bill V.]

Hi Late

I would have missed this race 4 .
Tim gets the winner using line 5 and some other factors,
I saw line 5 but since line 1 and line 3 are adjusted to 5.5 and line 5 is at todays distance, but rates worse than line 3 with the same speed rating
I just figured 5.5 just was not a good distance for the horse

anyway using line 5 or 3 does not get me the winner

But I am okay with it. :0

┌─┬───────────┬───┬───┬────────┐  ┌───┬───┬───┬───┬──┬──┬──┐  ┌──────┐  ┌────┐
│#│PN NAME LdT│SPR│BAL│   TOT-R│  │EPR│LPR│CPR│ TT│FW│HE│FX│  │V/DC-T│  │SUPP│
├─┼───────────┼───┼───┼────────┤  ├───┼───┼───┼───┼──┼──┼──┤  ├──────┤  ├────┤
│1│ 1 SUNRI3  │ 81│  7│171.30-2│  │  3│  4│  2│  4│ 3│ 4│ 3│  │     3│  │   2│
├─┼───────────┼───┼───┼────────┤  ├───┼───┼───┼───┼──┼──┼──┤  ├──────┤  ├────┤
│2│ 3 LOOK 1  │ 77│  6│170.10-4│  │  4│  2│  5│  5│ 5│ 2│ 2│  │     3│  │   4│
├─┼───────────┼───┼───┼────────┤  ├───┼───┼───┼───┼──┼──┼──┤  ├──────┤  ├────┤
│3│ 4 CHELS3  │ 78│  6│170.55-3│  │  5│  1│  4│  2│ 4│ 1│ 4│  │     2│  │   3│
├─┼───────────┼───┼───┼────────┤  ├───┼───┼───┼───┼──┼──┼──┤  ├──────┤  ├────┤
│4│ 5 MAGSA3  │ 80│  7│170.02-5│  │  1│  5│  3│  1│ 1│ 5│ 5│  │     2│  │   5│
├─┼───────────┼───┼───┼────────┤  ├───┼───┼───┼───┼──┼──┼──┤  ├──────┤  ├────┤
│5│ 7 CLAIM3  │ 83│  4│171.99-1│  │  2│  3│  1│  3│ 2│ 3│ 1│  │     1│  │   1│
└─┴───────────┴───┴───┴────────┘  └───┴───┴───┴───┴──┴──┴──┘  └──────┘  └────┘

Pace lines

             SAR0806 4 5.5 T CL 3+F $50,000 CP=$25,000 2:39PM               2/8
JOCK/TRAIN       R   W   P   S   W%        R  W  P  S  EARNINGS   W%      EPS  R
ROSARIO, JOEL   99  18  18   5   18 LIFE  31  4  4  2   249,335   13    8,043  3
ADSIT, ABIGAIL  26   3   2   2   12 CURR   7  0  1  1    17,990    0    2,570  7
(c) 50 /ASMUSSEN $25,000            PAST   8  1  0  1    42,040   13    5,255  7
ML=10/1                             T-SP  26  3  4  2   203,996   12    7,846  4
  2 AVE'S HALO               AGE=6  OFF-T  7  1  0  0
 COMMENT:
                      EQUALIZED, NORMALIZED AND ADJUSTED
L DAYSTRK RCODISTSd 1STC  2NDC  FINC   BL1   BL2   BLS   BLF  SR  ESP     L PI
1   25BEL 5FM 7.0T  22.8  45.5 102.6  2.60  4.10  5.10  9.30  77          1
2   50BEL 7YL 6.0T  23.8  46.6 104.4  4.00  3.00  3.80  5.10  72          2
3[  78BEL 4FM 7.0T  23.8  46.4 103.1  1.50  1.50  4.00  6.50  77          3  1 ]
4  130FG 11FM 5.5T  22.0  45.8 104.6  2.70  3.60  5.10  8.60  67          4
5[ 153FG  7FM 5.5T  22.2  46.1 103.2  4.60  4.10  3.60  5.80  77          5  2 ]
6  173FG  7FM 5.5T  22.6  46.0 104.1  3.50  3.50  1.70  2.10  77          6
7  216FG  7GD 5.5T  21.7  46.5 103.9  6.20  4.50  2.50  4.50  75          7
8  260AQU 8FT 6.5D  22.0  44.0 103.0  9.00  9.50 13.70 14.60  69          8
9  316BEL 1FM 6.0t  22.8  43.7 102.8  7.00  4.50  2.00  0.00  85          9
A  350SAR 9SY 5.5D  21.9  44.9 103.2  3.60  3.00  5.60  8.30  75          A
                                    DETAILS
L TYPE           PU/CP JOCKEY         PP FN FD    ODDSF COMMENT
1 OC-3+FSNW2    40,000 JARA, FERNANDO  4  6  7   25.80  CHASED 2P, TIRED
2 CL-3+F        25,000 ORTIZJR, IRAD   4  8  8    4.30  LOOSE POCKET EARLY,TRD
3[CL-3+F        25,000 CRUZ, ANGEL     4  2  7    4.80  PROMPT 2P,ASK BY 5/16
4 AL-4+FNW1     42,000 ALBARADO, ROBB 12 11 13    4.50* JOSTLED 3/8,3-4W,TIRED
5[AL-4+FNW1     38,000 MENA, MIGUEL    4  4  8   13.70  INSIDE TURN,NO RALLY   ]
6 AL-4+FNW1     38,000 ERAMIA, RICHAR  1  5  8    3.70  BMPD BRK,2-3W TURN
7 AL-4+FNW1     38,000 ALBARADO, ROBB  8  3 10    2.90  2-3W TURN,4WIDE 1/4
8 AL-3+FNW1     67,000 ORTIZJR, IRAD   1 11 13   24.00  INS EARLY, 8W 1/8
9 CL-3+F        25,000 ROSARIO, JOEL   5  6  6    0.60* 2P, UP NEAR WIRE
A OC-3+FSNW2    40,000 ROCCO, JOSEPH   6  4  6    4.30  OVERLAND TURN, TIRED
                                   WORK OUTS
 5D(FT)SAR:102.7B  5F(FT)BEL:103.0B  5F(FT)BEL:103.0B  5F(FT)BEL:103.6B
 4F(FT)BEL: 51.9B  4D(FT)BEL: 50.9B  5F(FT)BEL:102.3B  5F(FT)BEL:102.0B
                                   FREQUENCY
WORK OUTS    7   34   54   61   68   80   87   94  101  108  115  136
RACES       25   50   78  130  153  173  216  260  316  350  370  407
                                 INSTRUCTIONS

[Latekick]

Tim, Congrats on the 10/1 winner and being able to dig that deep to get him. If you gave me this race 10 times no matter what line i used on the winner i would not have used this horse based off of its BLBL and VDC rating, i just saw so many other good horses that DESERVED my money above this one, not that it was a bad horse, just that i felt there were bette options on top of it. But obviously i was wrong, but that happens. So congrats Tim, your model led you to a 10/1 winner and thats always a good thing.

Bill, I'm with you. Im having trouble resizing my screenshots because the site is saying they are to big to post so i still cannot post my screenshots but my final readouts are very similar to yours and i also don't have the winner in any situation

[Lt1]

Thanks Grant. On the surface a 5th tiered horse isn't very appealing but because of the model and picking up on a trainer angle and the odds being right it was worth a shot. And remember the race at Sar where the 6 won and I was telling you about how Marion Jones and Vic Palermo at the Vegas seminar both stated that if you make a horse a contender you have to use a line that gives him a chance to win. Marion also stated if you won't bet the horse don't put it in the computer. Some very good advice.

[Latekick]

Thanks Tim, good to always get people opinions on races that i run into trouble with.
Had a good day today with no real problem races worth posting. Big day of racing tomorrow hope to get some time to talk over a few races with you guys