Queens Plate 2016

[Hoof 11]

Originally Posted by Tim Y

If you look at those lines OUT of kilter with the others: All on Red's second and Ami's Gizmo (ON the older Polytrack, NOT the very loose and unpacked Tapeta) 3rd line back as a two year old. Two year olds run very differently at three (usually at a later % median). IN the case of Ami's, the last three 6 furlong pace times have gotten SLOWER.


The ONE thing that people should learn in the Match Up. You have to have as common a YARDSTICK as possible to compare one horse's effort to the next, you cannot use a two year old's line or a line from a completely different surface and pretend they are equivalent NO matter how accurate an inter-track variant is.

Another thing about Woodbine is the turf course and the "going stick." It's MAXIMUM reading is 12.0 and the last few weeks it has registered 11.8 to 12.0 and the front end has done better than usual (the longest turf stretch in North America usually gives the late movers a great chance to move up). Make sure you know what it is before doing any handicapping on that surface.

You just finished saying that you shouldn’t use the horses line from the faster Poly surface as a two year old, yet you are comparing the horses last three 6F pace times? The 3rd line being a fast poly line as a 2 year old, against the 1st and 2nd line from the slow Tapeta. Then you proceed to tell me that the horse is getting “slower”? Isn’t it a contradiction if you compare line 3 with lines 1 and 2?

Amis Gizmo is a “climber”, he doesn’t come off the shelf with its best effort. You are comparing the horses last line in 2015 (his best effort to date) with its first two races in 2016. I don’t agree with your thought process, i project him to run better on Plate day.

As well, weren’t you the one that stated last year that the “Going Stick” was a complete joke and shouldn’t be taken seriously? Right after you called me ignorant?

[Tim Y]

QUOTE: As well, weren’t you the one that stated last year that the “Going Stick” was a complete joke and shouldn’t be taken seriously? Right after you called me ignorant?

No one used the word ignorant nor was it ever implied. Differences of opinion are what makes some of us win and others do not. In reality IGNORANT only means unenlightened by the facts of a situation, as I am ignorant of Bolivian television.

When the thing is MAXED out at its highest rating. I would not care how it is functioning, THAT is a significant reading. If you go to the going stick website they state that 12 is the highest the thing goes.

I have observed it in use: that is the joke. As Jim Bannon explained it: HOW can something be relied upon that is just randomly stuck in the ground with NO consistent force like the penetrometer is in England? That latter device uses a standard weight, dropped from a standard distance...there is no continuity with this thing.

A climber to me is a horse that is telling us that the material in its face is a problem.....Example if you watch Inglorious Alabama, we all said it at the same time: "She is climbing out of the gate." Thought that was standard race track parlance.

[Tim Y]

Looking at this (the Plate) from two angles

1) Top pace lines (traditional) puts the 4 contenders 4 6 10 12

2) More subtle, the Damon Runyon angle: (When the true speed of the entire field is within a single unit of feet per second (here in the low 54 range), one differentiates the contenders based upon better deceleration). With that, look at 4 (54.6 with 101 decel) 6 (two lines 54.7 with 95, and 54.6 with 100.9) then 12 (54.4 with 100.4 decel) May have to include Gamble's Ghost and/or Esposito, UNDER, in any exotic.

At this distance, it usually takes an incoming pace line deceleration in the 97 range to be successful.

These match fairly closely to morning line so there may be a wager, or not. Let the market opportunities predicate an investment.

[Ted Craven]

So far, I'm liking the 10-13-6. Although I have to say I'm more than a little skeptical of the #10 Amis Gizmo - his 3-line back 2 YO SR is possibly not the best way to represent this horse this year. Though, if I use any other route line, he still stays in my top 3 and I've never been intimidated by 'top-rank-itis'. Whether there's a good Win bet from this group, on top of some the rest from the Primary group (at least in Exacta play) is for the public to inform me of closer to post time.



Good luck all, and enjoy!

Ted

[Hoof 11]

Queen’s Plate

Interesting that Contreras has ridden both Amis Gizmo and Gamble’s Ghost in all of their starts, and stays with Gizmo here. Both trained by Carroll, and both seem pretty close in talent, but i feel that Gizmo will build off of his Plate Trial win, he looked so good after the race. The colt has no problem coming from off the pace where i expect Contreras to rate him.

Leavem In Malibu, this lightly-raced son of Malibu Moon has looked good in his last two outings and has won driving on both occasions. There’s plenty of pace in the race and would seem to have the perfect running style, stalking from just off the pace. Comes into the Plate having not raced in five weeks, but his works leading in have been superb. Rapidly improving horse with explosiveness tackles Stakes company for the first time and looms to be a dangerous contender. Well bred for the distance and has several winning siblings, including a full brother in the late Danzig Moon.

Gamble’s Ghost got into trouble in the Oaks after getting stuck in traffic in the second turn and early into the stretch, but finished gamely. She looked to be the best of the field in the Oaks if not for her troubled trip. Multiple graded Stakes winner, only one of two graded winners in the field. She goes third time off a layoff, and Carroll has a 41% win percentage with this angle. She looks to be on an upswing if you go by her win rate as well as having the second best late rating.

Contenders – 4-10-13

Selections – 10 – 4

[Mitch44]

10th WO Queens Plate3 yr. old bred in Canada, P 1,000,000

PP Line # Comments
1 L 2 B on last & improved early speed, 3% trainer, must improve 20 lg. out Non-contender
2 L 1 Unknown Factor, won last two, logical up in class, minus 19 lg.’s , 30-1 odds but huge class jump, non-contender
3 L 2 Needed last & proved all weather ability, new trainer good % for all weather, figures to improve. 12 to 1, contender
4 L 2 Won last two, top ability Unknown?, logical step up, low odds 7-2 contender
5 L 1 Last was best w/ same total energy but at longer dis. & on all weather, on improve, extra dis. a help, better longer and on all weather, an Unknown Factor with attractive odds @ 15-1 and expected to go up. Minus - 16 lg.’s, probably best for 3rd or 4th for gimmicks. Non- contender for win.
6 L 3 2nd time L, many fast w/o & probably bled in one., trainer has wisely baked off fast w/o and likely to improve, contender.
7 L 1 Won last & on improve, minus 24 lg.’s , ambitiously placed, non-contender.
8 L 1 Unknown factor that has improved in last two with even pace, has learned to rate better , surface & distance OK, used L 1 7F because of improvement, still much to prove -20 lg.’s 30-1 that will probably go off at 99-1, could surprise with a S or 4th for gimmicks if your into them but not recommended for this this race, Non-contender.
9 L 2 Was on improve but last race suspicious, may be a NTL and if so won’t get it today, beaten by weaker in last & takes a big class jump today, non-contender
10 L 3 2nd L could improve, consistent, hasn’t been really tested yet, probably bled in only lost, has won 5 of 6, class of race and horse to beat. Odds 3-1 & will probably be favorite. Contender.
11 L 1 Took to all weather in last, can rate so distance should be ok, only -10 lg.’s, unknown factor, only 8-1 for risk, contender.
12 L 1 B on in last and best race yet, top ??, as good as this trainer is he was slow to realize need for L & B on, perhaps owners objected, appears to have put it all together in last and true ability is unknown, as a 2 yr. old has raced on all weather at WO, could take it all & 12-1 ML,, contender
13 L 3 Trouble in last ,can run better rating Line 3, best would have won last without trouble, Lasix last two, top??, dis. ok, contender.

Contenders: 3-4-6-10-11-12-13

This is basically a MSW for 1 ¼ mile that is fraught with many unknown factors and not a race for serious big money. Because of the many unknown factors the gimmick bets should be avoided such as Ex., Tri. , Sf etc. Reduce your normal wager and play to win and play connecting DD which are easier to succeed in for a profit. The horse to beat is #10

My final order is 12-3-10-6-13, I’ll play the 12 & 3 to win and use 12-3-10 for connecting DD with:

9th Race 3-5-11
11th Race 3-5-9

Good luck,
Mitch44

[lone speed]

First things first: I want to thank Tim Y. for (having the courage??) coming back to this board to post again. I have enjoyed some of your important posts on energy distributions and evaluations of Percent Median%. This is especially important in "developing 3 year-olds" as they stretch out to longer route distances. Let the past stay in the past....Looking forward to more posts, hopefully not too much "fireworks"......Welcome back!!

In this year's Queen's Plate at 10 furlongs, Ami's Gizmo is yet another foal out of the mare Gallloping Ami. What a mare!! I do not like the energy distribution of Ami's Gizmo at all. It has some strong pace fractions from previous races especially from its two-year old racing season but the energy distribution will be tested today by Esposito.

My true contenders of the Queen's Plate match-up are Leavem in Malibu, Scholar Athlete and Shakhimat. I have Shakhimat as my top ranked horse with the best energy distribution to compete at 10 furlongs today.

Good skills

[Bill Lyster]

Marathon input:

4-12-13-10 with six or seven early runners folding in the stretch. The 4 ran 4-4-2 by a hd in a 137.1 mile time best by 8/10ths; 12 ran 3-3-3, 13 ran 5-5-2 by 4 and the 10 pressed running 5-3-1.

My pick is 4 with keyed exactas both ways to the other three.

Good luck.

[rmath]

playing 10/3-6-13/ all for .20 total 6.60
Good luck to all.

rmath

[Ted Craven]

Win 10-13
Exacta 10-13 / 10-13-6-3-4