Wed GP 2/25 Race 2 - Pace and Cap

Jeebs · 02-25-2015, 11:36 AM

Link to PPs --- http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...20&param3=2000

Projected Pace: 22.1/44.3/1:09.4

1) P
2) P
3) E 22.2
4) P
5) S
6) E 22.1
7) S
8) S/P
9) S

To run OTE

Matching Earlies 3 (Ln 1) & 6 (Ln 5), the 6 has a significant advantage, relegating the 3 to OTE in this matchup. The question becomes "who can match up against 6?"

1 (line 3) is at a positional disadvantage vs. 6. Looks like he is 2nd fiddle in this matchup.

2 (all lines) is too slow here. Out.

3 is now OTE and out.

4 pressed vs. much faster paces (lines 3 & 5) and figures to challenge the 6 by 2c and pass the 6 by the stretch call. Bingo! 6 is now OUT and 4 is now IN! The question becomes "who matches up against 4?"

5 is too slow and positionally disadvantaged. Out.

6 is out by virtue of the matchup against 4.

7 is too slow here. Out.

8 matches well at the 1c in line 4, but is out of it by 2c. Other races too slow. Out.

9 seems to be a slow route horse cutting back. Positionally at a disadvantage. Out.

4 and 1 dominate this matchup.

Jeebs · 02-25-2015, 12:48 PM

The 1 and 8 are now scratched. The 4 is still the one to beat, but the 6 might be able to get a piece of the pie in this particular matchup.

Preference is 4-6 now.

The Pook · 02-25-2015, 01:27 PM

I have it down to the #6 as the lone early. At his odds I will be on him for win and place.

Pook

Bill V. · 02-25-2015, 01:37 PM

I used te 6 just for pace only
i like 2 and 4 with 7 under

Jeebs · 02-25-2015, 01:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bill V.

I used te 6 just for pace only
i like 2 and 4 with 7 under

Bad break with the 7 dumping its rider at the gate, but good fortune getting your money back on the exacta key with the 7 as a non-starter.

The Pook · 02-25-2015, 01:50 PM

You tabbed that one Bill. The 6 has been off 192 days thats true. Didn't work this time.

Pook

Bill V. · 02-25-2015, 01:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jeebs

Bad break with the 7 dumping its rider at the gate, but good fortune getting your money back on the exacta key with the 7 as a non-starter.

Yes that was nice to get the win and my ex money back.
Nice race

Jeebs · 02-25-2015, 02:27 PM

Layoff or no layoff, the 6 still had to be factored in how the race was going to be run. Even if I somehow managed to project the race off the 3, I still feel that my matchup was destined to be beat, as I couldn't "see" the 2. It happens.

02-25-2015, 11:36 AM	#1
Jeebs Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 909	Wed GP 2/25 Race 2 Link to PPs --- http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...20&param3=2000 Projected Pace: 22.1/44.3/1:09.4 1) P 2) P 3) E 22.2 4) P 5) S 6) E 22.1 7) S 8) S/P 9) S To run OTE Matching Earlies 3 (Ln 1) & 6 (Ln 5), the 6 has a significant advantage, relegating the 3 to OTE in this matchup. The question becomes "who can match up against 6?" 1 (line 3) is at a positional disadvantage vs. 6. Looks like he is 2nd fiddle in this matchup. 2 (all lines) is too slow here. Out. 3 is now OTE and out. 4 pressed vs. much faster paces (lines 3 & 5) and figures to challenge the 6 by 2c and pass the 6 by the stretch call. Bingo! 6 is now OUT and 4 is now IN! The question becomes "who matches up against 4?" 5 is too slow and positionally disadvantaged. Out. 6 is out by virtue of the matchup against 4. 7 is too slow here. Out. 8 matches well at the 1c in line 4, but is out of it by 2c. Other races too slow. Out. 9 seems to be a slow route horse cutting back. Positionally at a disadvantage. Out. 4 and 1 dominate this matchup.

02-25-2015, 01:37 PM	#4
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	off 192 days I used te 6 just for pace only i like 2 and 4 with 7 under

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02-25-2015, 12:48 PM	#2
Jeebs Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 909	The 1 and 8 are now scratched. The 4 is still the one to beat, but the 6 might be able to get a piece of the pie in this particular matchup. Preference is 4-6 now.

02-25-2015, 01:27 PM	#3
The Pook Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2014 Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada Posts: 2,539	I have it down to the #6 as the lone early. At his odds I will be on him for win and place. Pook

02-25-2015, 01:50 PM	#6
The Pook Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2014 Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada Posts: 2,539	You tabbed that one Bill. The 6 has been off 192 days thats true. Didn't work this time. Pook

02-25-2015, 02:27 PM	#8
Jeebs Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 909	Layoff or no layoff, the 6 still had to be factored in how the race was going to be run. Even if I somehow managed to project the race off the 3, I still feel that my matchup was destined to be beat, as I couldn't "see" the 2. It happens.