PHA Jan 23 Race 9 - Pace and Cap

cprescigno · 01-23-2006, 08:49 PM

Anyone catch that $102 winner in the ninth at Philly today?
Track was listed as Muddy weather Showery.

Charlie

Binder · 01-24-2006, 01:38 AM

Hey Charlie
I was unable to look at Philly till tonite
This might look good for the winner but
In the next screen shot I will show the the winner # 5 ,I
would probably miss this one because of the last 4 poor efforts

Binder · 01-24-2006, 01:42 AM

Here is the past performance screen for the 50/1 winner

2 problems
1. I wouldn't go down to line 5. This seems to be Morgans level
AlwNw2
Here are the conditions

PHA0123 9 8.3 D AL 4+ $22,000 3:50PM
(PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS
AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO
RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR
STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE
RACES. Weight, 122 lbs. Non-winners of a
race at one mile or over since December
23 Allowed 3 lbs. Such a race since
November 23 Allowed 5 lbs. (Maiden,
Claiming, and Starter races not
considered).

2. Lines from the Medowlands are too fast and I have nothing in the last 4 races to justify this 88 SR

cprescigno · 01-24-2006, 04:30 AM

Looking at your BL screen caused me to download the race card and take a look through Spec. I actually ran it through both Spec and Val. Very different results from one to the other.
Using Spec I can see the 10 in my top 5 contenders and also the 7 but using the DECL numbers Spec favors the 5-10. I use the Decl numbers a lot to reinforce my decision.
Not sure I would have gone with the 5. Can't say now for sure knowing that I know he won the race and I elected to stay out today due to the weather.
I think under normal circumstances I would go with line 5. It's one of two choices, either go with that line or leave him out. I don't like to leave them out and prefer the program to sort it out for me. I did leave out the 1 horse.
Here is the pacelines I used. I went with the weaker line on the 10 I think. Val selected the stronger line.

cprescigno · 01-24-2006, 04:32 AM

Here's the BL/BL Screen using Spec.

cprescigno · 01-24-2006, 04:36 AM

And here is the Summary screen. Like I said, I use the DECL raw numbers frequently to support a decision. Here it points to the 5-10. I don't how to pick the 7 but he comes in top 5 contenders.

cprescigno · 01-24-2006, 04:40 AM

OK I did all of that and it's too late to make a bet but the differences between Spec and Val are interesting. Does that mean when it's muddy and raining we use Spec?
My current goal is to hit a $100 winner.
I'll make you a deal. You are the master at Philly. The next time there is going to be a $100 winner at Philly you let me know and we'll work out the race and come up with the winner, and maybe sweeten it with an exacta.
It's too much to ask for that 9K trifecta but we'll go for that one too!

Charlie

admin · 01-24-2006, 05:37 AM

funny when I first read your coments
my thought was oh no here we go again
I even made this screen shot and I was about to say "Hello"
the question is about line 5 for horse 5 as both programs have it rated # 1

Now I see your looking at nice Exacta and a $9000 trifecta which is good ..
Actually thats what Doc did when I worked with him
in his office He kept working the race till he got the trifecta
in his top 5. I guess its great practice
I added my 3 screen for me my lines the 10 and 7 are hides
So Spec did a great job in this race

cprescigno · 01-24-2006, 05:46 AM

Yes, here we go again.
Thsi one was bothering me some so I worked it a bit further.
Using Match Up guidelines the 5 was definitely worth going back 5 lines.
Match Up rules favored the 1A-5-10.
2nd Call was actually slightly faster in yesterday's race than the 5 horse had posted before and he had the best 2nd call time in the pacelines.
Actually that was an error. Both the 1A and 5 posted better 2nd Call times than they did in yesterday's race. the 10 was about 4 ticks over.
The fractions were
46.53, 1:12.15 and 1:43.69

Charlie

alydar_ David · 01-24-2006, 01:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cprescigno

...
Match Up rules favored the 1A-5-10...

Charlie

What Match Up rules are those, Charlie?

I'm not sure what you mean; can you elaborate?

Thanks.

---

PS- I did bet that race yesterday at PHA, as well five other races. Lost them all. Had the winner of the first today (my third choice), but missed the double and am throwing in the towel there. LOL

2nd race - Philadelphia Park - January 24, 2006
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
12 Cozy Fannie 89.40 34.00 20.80
4 Queen's Folly 10.60 6.40
10 Justaspringfling 23.40

$2 Daily Double 1-12 536.00
$2 Exacta 12-4 1,016.00
$2 Trifecta 12-4-10 38,378.80

01-23-2006, 08:49 PM	#1
cprescigno Spec Rookie Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: NYC Posts: 258	PHA Jan 23 Race 9 Anyone catch that $102 winner in the ninth at Philly today? Track was listed as Muddy weather Showery. Charlie

01-24-2006, 01:38 AM	#2
Binder Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Northern NJ Posts: 674	Missed this Hey Charlie I was unable to look at Philly till tonite This might look good for the winner but In the next screen shot I will show the the winner # 5 ,I would probably miss this one because of the last 4 poor efforts Attached Images

01-24-2006, 01:42 AM	#3
Binder Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Northern NJ Posts: 674	Winner Here is the past performance screen for the 50/1 winner 2 problems 1. I wouldn't go down to line 5. This seems to be Morgans level AlwNw2 Here are the conditions PHA0123 9 8.3 D AL 4+ $22,000 3:50PM (PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. Weight, 122 lbs. Non-winners of a race at one mile or over since December 23 Allowed 3 lbs. Such a race since November 23 Allowed 5 lbs. (Maiden, Claiming, and Starter races not considered). 2. Lines from the Medowlands are too fast and I have nothing in the last 4 races to justify this 88 SR Attached Images Last edited by Binder; 01-24-2006 at 01:54 AM.

01-24-2006, 04:30 AM	#4
cprescigno Spec Rookie Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: NYC Posts: 258	Looking at your BL screen caused me to download the race card and take a look through Spec. I actually ran it through both Spec and Val. Very different results from one to the other. Using Spec I can see the 10 in my top 5 contenders and also the 7 but using the DECL numbers Spec favors the 5-10. I use the Decl numbers a lot to reinforce my decision. Not sure I would have gone with the 5. Can't say now for sure knowing that I know he won the race and I elected to stay out today due to the weather. I think under normal circumstances I would go with line 5. It's one of two choices, either go with that line or leave him out. I don't like to leave them out and prefer the program to sort it out for me. I did leave out the 1 horse. Here is the pacelines I used. I went with the weaker line on the 10 I think. Val selected the stronger line. Attached Images

01-24-2006, 04:32 AM	#5
cprescigno Spec Rookie Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: NYC Posts: 258	Here's the BL/BL Screen using Spec. Attached Images

01-24-2006, 04:36 AM	#6
cprescigno Spec Rookie Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: NYC Posts: 258	And here is the Summary screen. Like I said, I use the DECL raw numbers frequently to support a decision. Here it points to the 5-10. I don't how to pick the 7 but he comes in top 5 contenders. Attached Images

01-24-2006, 04:40 AM	#7
cprescigno Spec Rookie Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: NYC Posts: 258	OK I did all of that and it's too late to make a bet but the differences between Spec and Val are interesting. Does that mean when it's muddy and raining we use Spec? My current goal is to hit a $100 winner. I'll make you a deal. You are the master at Philly. The next time there is going to be a $100 winner at Philly you let me know and we'll work out the race and come up with the winner, and maybe sweeten it with an exacta. It's too much to ask for that 9K trifecta but we'll go for that one too! Charlie

01-24-2006, 05:37 AM	#8
admin Administrator Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,643	mixed up funny when I first read your coments my thought was oh no here we go again I even made this screen shot and I was about to say "Hello" the question is about line 5 for horse 5 as both programs have it rated # 1 Now I see your looking at nice Exacta and a $9000 trifecta which is good .. Actually thats what Doc did when I worked with him in his office He kept working the race till he got the trifecta in his top 5. I guess its great practice I added my 3 screen for me my lines the 10 and 7 are hides So Spec did a great job in this race Attached Images Last edited by admin; 01-24-2006 at 05:39 AM.

01-24-2006, 05:46 AM	#9
cprescigno Spec Rookie Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: NYC Posts: 258	Yes, here we go again. Thsi one was bothering me some so I worked it a bit further. Using Match Up guidelines the 5 was definitely worth going back 5 lines. Match Up rules favored the 1A-5-10. 2nd Call was actually slightly faster in yesterday's race than the 5 horse had posted before and he had the best 2nd call time in the pacelines. Actually that was an error. Both the 1A and 5 posted better 2nd Call times than they did in yesterday's race. the 10 was about 4 ticks over. The fractions were 46.53, 1:12.15 and 1:43.69 Charlie Last edited by cprescigno; 01-24-2006 at 06:16 AM.