EVD 5th -- Wednesday, Jan. 18 - Pace and Cap

alydar_ David · 01-18-2006, 04:07 AM

EVD 5th -- Wednesday, Jan. 18

Evangeline Downs is an interesting track with lots of big fields, chaos races and godzilla payoffs.

This looks like an excellent card.

The fifth is a classic chaos race with several close contenders, varied running styles and recency puzzlers.

I used some custom made software, Sartin based, to plow through the race.

Here's the gist of it.

#6 Greeley's Best is the only horse that can run to 1C par. He also has the best overall pace rating and is tied for Total Energy. His morning line of 5-1 might be a little high, but then again this is a chaos race. So, maybe not.

#8 Cheery Hour is the fastest horse in the race and appears to be in okay form. 6-1 seems acceptable.

#9 Hi Plains Thunder is the probable favorite. And even though running to par won't be a problem, something rubs me the wrong way about this horse. I guess you have to use him for exotics.

#3 Rectify is the class of the race and will probably run well if the track is moist. The Total Energy is nothing to write home about though.

And saving the best for last...#10 Frome is my top choice to win at 8-1.
By the numbers this horse is competetive, although not a standout. The back class and trainer moves make this my pick in a very competetive race.

I'll take #6 and #10 to win.

For the exotics I'll play spin the bottle and also toss #11 into the mix.

Be interesting to see what others come up with in this fourteen horse affair.

Binder · 01-18-2006, 05:29 AM

David what a wild one
Ok here is the trouble This is horse 10
forget about what happens if I use line 2or 3
I used line 1 even with the 8.0 BL - a Val 3 No-No

but at least this line puts it close to the others

Binder · 01-18-2006, 05:31 AM

Here is my BL/BL
V/dc is close
10 - 1
5 - 2
9 - 3
11 - 3
6 - 4
so only the 11 improves
the late early

10> +9.3
5> +7.8
9> +16.5
6> +12.3
11> CE -1.6

If I can get 4/1 + on the #10 I will win bet it with the 9
If not I will hide the 10 and then take the
9 and 5 and a 10 9 11 ex box

Fast4522 · 01-18-2006, 09:50 AM

Here are Fred's power readouts for race 5

Fast4522 · 01-18-2006, 09:53 AM

And here are Fred's PCL read outs

Binder · 01-18-2006, 05:42 PM

Fast I think we agree this time
good skill
I see the 10 9 and 6 all up top

I notice the UNN form ratings
reminds me of Wm. Scotts form ratings
from "How Will Your Horse Run Today"
My favorite non Sartin handicapping book of all time

Exactas · 01-18-2006, 06:30 PM

I was just on the website and there is no way to gets scratches with 80 min. to post. I do not reduce to 5 runners until I know who is in and out. I also like to keep pace lines to 3. Now 10 & 14 are scratched

Exactas · 01-18-2006, 07:38 PM

And the B screen

Exactas · 01-18-2006, 09:52 PM

Maybe next time

Fast4522 · 01-18-2006, 10:01 PM

Chalk the winner up this time to Fast Fred picking the 8 on top in power and picking the trifecta in the top 4 selections.

01-18-2006, 05:29 AM	#2
Binder Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Northern NJ Posts: 674	Here comes trouble David what a wild one Ok here is the trouble This is horse 10 forget about what happens if I use line 2or 3 I used line 1 even with the 8.0 BL - a Val 3 No-No but at least this line puts it close to the others Attached Images

01-18-2006, 09:50 AM	#4
Fast4522 Former member Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Gun Country Posts: 363	EVD 1/18 race 5 Fast Fred Power readouts Here are Fred's power readouts for race 5 Attached Images

01-18-2006, 09:53 AM	#5
Fast4522 Former member Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Gun Country Posts: 363	And here are Fred's PCL read outs Attached Images

01-18-2006, 06:30 PM	#7
Exactas AlwNW1X Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Ca. Posts: 14	I was just on the website and there is no way to gets scratches with 80 min. to post. I do not reduce to 5 runners until I know who is in and out. I also like to keep pace lines to 3. Now 10 & 14 are scratched Attached Images Last edited by Exactas; 01-18-2006 at 07:36 PM.

01-18-2006, 04:07 AM	#1
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	EVD 5th -- Wednesday, Jan. 18 EVD 5th -- Wednesday, Jan. 18 Evangeline Downs is an interesting track with lots of big fields, chaos races and godzilla payoffs. This looks like an excellent card. The fifth is a classic chaos race with several close contenders, varied running styles and recency puzzlers. I used some custom made software, Sartin based, to plow through the race. Here's the gist of it. #6 Greeley's Best is the only horse that can run to 1C par. He also has the best overall pace rating and is tied for Total Energy. His morning line of 5-1 might be a little high, but then again this is a chaos race. So, maybe not. #8 Cheery Hour is the fastest horse in the race and appears to be in okay form. 6-1 seems acceptable. #9 Hi Plains Thunder is the probable favorite. And even though running to par won't be a problem, something rubs me the wrong way about this horse. I guess you have to use him for exotics. #3 Rectify is the class of the race and will probably run well if the track is moist. The Total Energy is nothing to write home about though. And saving the best for last...#10 Frome is my top choice to win at 8-1. By the numbers this horse is competetive, although not a standout. The back class and trainer moves make this my pick in a very competetive race. I'll take #6 and #10 to win. For the exotics I'll play spin the bottle and also toss #11 into the mix. Be interesting to see what others come up with in this fourteen horse affair.

01-18-2006, 05:31 AM	#3
Binder Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Northern NJ Posts: 674	Trouble Here is my BL/BL V/dc is close 10 - 1 5 - 2 9 - 3 11 - 3 6 - 4 so only the 11 improves the late early 10> +9.3 5> +7.8 9> +16.5 6> +12.3 11> CE -1.6 If I can get 4/1 + on the #10 I will win bet it with the 9 If not I will hide the 10 and then take the 9 and 5 and a 10 9 11 ex box Attached Images Last edited by Binder; 01-18-2006 at 05:42 AM.

01-18-2006, 05:42 PM	#6
Binder Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Northern NJ Posts: 674	Thanks David and Fast Fast I think we agree this time good skill I see the 10 9 and 6 all up top I notice the UNN form ratings reminds me of Wm. Scotts form ratings from "How Will Your Horse Run Today" My favorite non Sartin handicapping book of all time

01-18-2006, 07:38 PM	#8
Exactas AlwNW1X Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Ca. Posts: 14	And the B screen Attached Images

01-18-2006, 09:52 PM	#9
Exactas AlwNW1X Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Ca. Posts: 14	Maybe next time Attached Images

01-18-2006, 10:01 PM	#10
Fast4522 Former member Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Gun Country Posts: 363	Chalk the winner up this time to Fast Fred picking the 8 on top in power and picking the trifecta in the top 4 selections.