RDSS strategies

[mrhug]

Thanks for all the great input from everyone. Sorry for the late response, but I just got back from a few days at Charles Town and Penn National. What I discovered was that a lot of the low priced favorites won and that is one of the reasons I PMed Ted. I am getting the winner about 70% of the time in my top three BL or segments. The main thing I was wondering was do I just use the top 3 in BL and can I take these 3 horses and and compare their readouts (corollaries) in RDSS to decide which 2 horses to bet on. Ted gave me a lot to study on in his reply, because my other question was the best way to bet, pass or handle the situation when you have low priced favorites on most of the races at a track.

[mrhug]

For this race, I was not sure what to do so I bet $4 on #8 to win and $2 on #2 to win.

[alydar_ David]

You could always play another track, or several for that matter.

And sometimes it's just chalk everywhere.

Last night I was at Gulfstream playing MNR, CT, DED, HOL and RP. I found one race which offered value -- RP 9th -- bet it, and lost.

I'm going again tonight for the promotional drawings from 10:00 P.M. until midnight. $1000 cash to someone every half hour. I won that a month ago. The only requirement is being there; no skill whatsoever. As long as I'm there I may as well bet the races. That is, if I can find anything worth betting.

What I can't stand is when you see a chalk double with odds on horses like the late double at MNR last night. Whatever happened to MNR and bombs?

That's one nice thing about conditional wagering. You can do your work, then bet it and forget it.

[mrhug]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

I posted it down in Old Sartin

Field to Bets

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpos...93&postcount=1

Bill

Bill
This is great. It gives me a strategy to start working with.
Thanks

[mrhug]

Bill and Ted
Could one of you show me how you would go through Penn National race 2 on 11-11. The race wound up with a lot of good odds, but I really struggled to pick pace lines for some of the horses. It may not be correct, but I like to pick pace lines as close to the same length, surface and the normal Adj SR for each horse. The Adj SR for some of these horses were all over the place.

[Ted Craven]

Melvin,

Just before spending more time on this, are you sure you meant this race? I didn't notice all that many good odds ... I would not have gotten this race, or bet it, most likely. 3-1 and 4-1 on my top 2 horses plus a 5/2 favourite so far out of my contender rankings seems like some kind of signal that there's too much odds competition for top position - or that I've missed something.

I can go through each horse and note paceline selection, though the above was simply best of last 3 Perceptor Total, similar distance structure, and most horses had lines at this track, this distance, or within a half-furlong. That's why I'm not sure I'm looking at the right race ...

[mrhug]

Thanks Ted. My pace lines were almost identical. I guess I just need to keep reading. Bill's strategy he uses will help me a lot to have something to start with. I am still struggling with which races to pass on as you see from this race.
Melvin

[Bill V.]

Hi Mrhug

I think you will find that some races just don't adjust well
I think this race is fine There is no big favorite or a horse that I would have to
hide ( at least looking at final odds) although im sure that near post time there could have been.

All I can tell you is I did the race just now.
I can't use Teds lines only because Ted and I pick lines differently
and I use Val 4 mode which means I can't use a line with over 7.5
Beaten lengths and Ted used a few

with my lines and beaten lengths I get the winner in my top 3
of my top 5 Total energy and Primary line score

But I probably would have bet the other two of these top 3
using my strategy

It would have been a loss

This is just one of those races were the adjustments RDSS makes
will miss I checked and ran the race in KGEN /Energy and entered the raw
pacelines
I get the same top 3 as RDSS but the winner is in the top 2

So if you missed this one I would not worry too much.As Ted says often the difference is just how a number is rounded up or down

Bill

[mrhug]

Thanks Bill
I did miss this race. The winner was not in my top 4. Thanks for working the first race with your strategies. I am going to start using them when running races through RDSS. I may have a question or 2 for you later as I work the races.
Thanks again
Melvin

[Dorianmode]

Mel,
Mr. Froggy's advice cannot be over-emphasized. I actually do as he says, but I keep my races in an Excel spreadsheet, as they can be sorted, and re-sorted any way I like, (by track, distance, ages, bla, bla, bla). But to be able to analyse what you are doing is very important, and will point you in the right direction.

The first thing I noticed is that you have WAY too many horses in your readout to make sense of it. The first thing you should do, in my humble opinion, if to figure out how to select your contenders, so that almost ALL the time, the winner is in your top 5 contenders. Then eliminate the rest, and go from there. There is a lot of good stuff about contender selection in the Follow Ups. I actually prefer to use 4, and then eliminate 1, so I am actually only looking at 3 horses for my final selection. This is exactly where Froggy's advice will point you in the right direction. And frankly there is a very simple way to do this right under your nose, but I will let your study reveal that to you. It's actually on that page you printed out above.

Next I think you should try what Ted was saying about hiding the favorite. They loose 2/3 of the time. If that is so, then THAT provides a lot of races to find value in other horses. In the race above, if you were to "dutch' the 2-1 combo, it would have provided about a 50% return on your wager, (which may or may not be acceptable to you, depending on your win percentage), it would be fine for me, AND there is NO particular reason to favor the favorite over the other two horses in this particular race, since it, (the favorite), did not "fit" my criteria for a winning horse, with a REAL advantage, in a route race. In fact, with the readout that you get with only three horses left, (8-2-1), I would have preferred the 2 and the 1, in this case, but record keeping will tell you what wins here, in these kinds of races, and it will simply "fall" out of your records. With the final three horses in the program, look at the races you used for entering the horses, and the pace lines for each. The first thing you see, is that the 1 stays in. So it comes down to, do you use the 2 or the 8 ? I picked the 2 because it fit my profile here. There are other things to consider in this situation, (ie does the favorite actually have an advantage, and will it likely win?). Here I think not. If I thought it WAS going to win, then there is another process I would use to "validate" the advantage it had, and either pass the race, (there are SO many other good races on any given day, there is no reason to mess with uncertainty, and more than winning, I HATE loosing), or if it's advantage WAS validated, I would do a one-horse bet. I know that's "heresy", but there are patterns of data, where you CAN validate the favorites "advantage" over the field, and make a positive ROI. Good luck. You CAN beat this game. Now if only the Vikings could figure out how to do their's. Oh well.

Oh, I forgot to say, I would get two other things if I were starting out here. 1. A book on statistics. I hated that subject until I saw it can make you lots of $$. 2. Go find one of the many good books on horse racing statistics, (such as CX Wong's "Precision, Statistical and Mathematical Methods in Horse Racing"). There are many other good web sites on racing stats, and books on Game Theory, with good stat info, also UNLV has great seminars on the math of gaming. I think you can do them on the web, but, it's fun to actually go too, if you have time.