Sartin

[mufasa]

Tim:

Thanks for both of your responses. I have heard and more importantly read that improving early speed is sometimes a hint of good things to come. Cary Fotias had many good things to say about improving early speed in his book “Blinkers Off.” I have always seriously considered such improving speed as a form or conditioning factor, but not necessarily as a pace line selection consideration.

Your use of the improving recent E/EL rating to select pace lines is different, interesting, and as you say effective. I have to keep this in mind when looking at pace line selection. The only problem that I have is that I have picked some nice bombs from rare time to rare time using pace lines for contenders that go way back, certainly way past the last 3-4 lines. Since it is rare then really what am I giving up if I hold myself to the most recent racing by all contenders?

Thanks again,

Robert

[Turbulator]

Would it be possible for someone to put up the PPs for all of the horses in this race using the same software program? Or even RDSS if it has the same readouts needed to make the OPs comparisons.

I have seen this analysis made dozens of times now and I still don't get it. Yes, I know, I'm slow--but I'm stubborn. Maybe by looking an entire race and pointing out exactly what I'm supposed to be looking at the light bulb will go on.

Thanks

Steve

[Tim Y]

In comparison to the field it becomes more obvious. Chosen by improving E/EP not e/l here. the FAR left column listed in the first capture. You outlined TPP and e/l neither of which show the improving early speed.

KISS, don't complicate something that needs no complication.
10th race - Philadelphia Park - September 08, 2008
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
4 Lit Bema 22.00 8.60 3.00
9 Blushin' Fax 4.40 3.00
3 Emmerton Lane 2.60

$2 Exacta 4-9 105.60
$2 Superfecta 4-9-3-1 626.20

[Turbulator]

I need some help with this graphic.

[mufasa]

Tim:

I see that after having picked the best pace lines on the basis of improving E/EL for each contender you then reduce the competition down to the best 5 horses and match them up with the Spec 160 Matchup screen. What did you use to get down to the best 5 contenders? Did you use to assist you other aspects of Energy like TPP or the Energy rating, or how about BLBL?

Thanks,
Robert

[Tim Y]

Originally Posted by mufasa

Tim:

I see that after having picked the best pace lines on the basis of improving E/EL for each contender you then reduce the competition down to the best 5 horses and match them up with the Spec 160 Matchup screen. What did you use to get down to the best 5 contenders? Did you use to assist you other aspects of Energy like TPP or the Energy rating, or how about BLBL?

Never thought about it. I NEVER use bl/bl NEVER......Most fields have far more than 5 contenders. TOtal energy can be often be used in routes, but never in sprints......TPP is good for routes....Never do it the exactly the same way twice

There is a great book you should read, TWO actually. BLINK by Malcolm Gladwell who states that once you understand the "essence" of something you can have far LESS information when understanding something

and SECOND a book that Howard Sartin touted COMPLEXITY by Walrop which is the basis for how I use all the programs. It is about self organizing systems in chaos. When I evaluate a race, I throw in several lines for each horse and then let the program TELL ME who might be leading at the second call (much like the fulcrum)

I then go back to see if that line, which I then compare to all the rest, was an aberration or a repeatable line. If I have let's say 6 contenders ABCDEF

I them go back and compare lines A1,A4,A7 to BCDEF and then go through EACH one, the same way (i.e ACDEF, to B2, B3, B6) to get an idea how multiple lines compare to one another which cancels out sample error.

[mufasa]

Tim thanks for your responses on this subject.

Robert

[Bill V.]

Thanks Richie

I can't believe you posted about Joe beard
You beat me to it .

Joe "Beard" Is a man who makes most of his income from
wagering He is very good at harness racing. So he always was near by the table... To get some good info about what he calls "the flats" The cool thing about Joe is that he just wants to know the top 3 on BLBL VDC and the "beard screen" as we came to call the Incremental match up graph
He would take our numbers and make the bet. He is a very generous man
when he hits

"The Val gets horses nobody else gets "
I guess you all can see why I like Joe


One of my favorite days at Monmouth Park
was a day Rich Joe and I drove down from the Meadowlands
on a beautiful summer Saturday to meet up with my Dad
for a afternoon of live races

[Turbulator]

Is this right?

[socantra]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

The cool thing about Joe is that he just wants to know the top 3 on BLBL VDC and the "beard screen" as we came to call the Incremental match up graph
He would take our numbers and make the bet. He is a very generous man
when he hits

"The Val gets horses nobody else gets "
I guess you all can see why I like Joe

He's certainly right about the Val getting horses that nobody else gets. It may not be for everyone, but for me its the closest to Magic that I've ever used.

Dick