Woodbine 1st - Plate Day/ Happy Fathers Day to all

[Mr.Pagine]

ran a monster # last time out, and may bounce. I have the and

Happy Punting

[Ted Craven]

Probably the only race I'll get to work and watch today - the Queen's Plate race, so here is my RDSS BL/BL take:



Gotta run, but, Michael G (a long term non-racing client ): if you get this and are in the stands at Woodbine on Father's Day (and the 1st day of Summer), here's what I sent to your work email a few minutes ago:

"Probably any of the top 3 listed here stand a fairly equal chance, so betting strategy should probably be according to odds offered. I think the #4 Milwaukee Appeal will be the betting favourite, but it is probably no better than the #11 Tasty Temptation which may end up being offered at somewhat better odds. The #8 Rapid Release will be a longer shot and ran its earlier career (last year) in England so is a bit mysterious to most folks. All these horses are young and likely improving so may improve to be better than their previous performances alone may indicate.

Again, depending on odds, I might make a wager on #11 Tasty, perhaps on BOTH Tasty and Rapid if their odds are each over 4-1 (which will probably only occur if the crowd goes wild for the #4 Milwaukee).

Michael - so this is what I've been doing for the past 3 years!"

Sorry - I know the foregoing is rather elementary to most here, but just trying to help my friend have a good day at the track!

Good luck to all (hope I get back from Algonquin Park in time!)

Ted

[tfm]

Ted

I'm curious. Do you watch races and factor trips in your decision making process?

[Tim Y]

Rapid Release is going backwards: third back makes that one a contender but that is the HIGH point of a big slide. Opener is between

[Mr.Pagine]

I think I may take your advice Tim, and bet the exactor in this situation.

JL

happy Punting

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by tfm

Ted

I'm curious. Do you watch races and factor trips in your decision making process?

tfm,

I really don't use trips and race watching as serious analysis tools, no. I do watch a number of races, though, from horses' PPs, to see if a modest running line with none-the-less good energy ratings reveals something to give me confidence to persist to use that line. But I cannot say that I change my opinions much based on what I watch - I am too unschooled in those observations. Anyway, I am in general satisfied with results proceeding from numbers alone and fear that adding more tools will make me too clever by half (or less).

I do like watching horses race against each other - often I have the muted TV going while working, watching the afternoon/evening's racing. No one has ever schooled me in how to rigourously apply what I would see during trip analyses.

Ted