Aqueduct Mile races

[GeorgeC5614]

I am trying to work today's card at Aqueduct, and I have a question about routes. The races at a mile on the inner dirt track are two turn races, while the same distance on the main track is only one turn. The inner track turns are also much sharper than the main track. Since they just switched back to the main track most of the recent races in the past performance were run on the inner dirt track. Is there anything I need to look differently to compare races run on the inner track to races run on the main track? What indicators would I look for to determine if a horse might run better on the main track than it did on the inner track?

[Segwin]

Originally Posted by GeorgeC5614

I am trying to work today's card at Aqueduct, and I have a question about routes. The races at a mile on the inner dirt track are two turn races, while the same distance on the main track is only one turn. The inner track turns are also much sharper than the main track. Since they just switched back to the main track most of the recent races in the past performance were run on the inner dirt track. Is there anything I need to look differently to compare races run on the inner track to races run on the main track? What indicators would I look for to determine if a horse might run better on the main track than it did on the inner track?

This thread Horses Don't Run In A Straight Line may help.

[Lt1]

Look at the horses record in the lifetime box and you will see how it does on the main track.

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by GeorgeC5614

I am trying to work today's card at Aqueduct, and I have a question about routes. The races at a mile on the inner dirt track are two turn races, while the same distance on the main track is only one turn. The inner track turns are also much sharper than the main track. Since they just switched back to the main track most of the recent races in the past performance were run on the inner dirt track. Is there anything I need to look differently to compare races run on the inner track to races run on the main track? What indicators would I look for to determine if a horse might run better on the main track than it did on the inner track?

George,

RDSS makes use of Inter-Track Variants (ITV) supplied by TrackMaster which along with the DTV adjustments (often) serve to compare pacelines from different tracks to each other. It is often mentioned here (though before your time so far ), that today's race projected by RDSS, including the velocities and resulting compounded factors and line scores - is NOT run at today's track, but rather at a 'hypothetical' normalized track, which we affectionately call 'Sartin Downs'. You will find that even pacelines run at today's track, today's exact distance, will be adjusted.

I mention this to illustrate that, IMO, one must take with a grain of salt exactly what impact on a horse - and on the race outcome - a switch between tracks will have (and moving from AQU Inner to AQU Outer is just as much a track switch as to PRX ...). By far the greater influence on the race outcome will be the Matchup between horses, between the effect of their Running Styles, the demands of energy exertion based on how they prefer to run - and, as always - ON PRICE. I say PRICE, because the rank of a factor may be less significant if you will be paid poorly when you win, and will be more significant - or, will have more tolerance for being wrong - if you are paid well when you win.

Indeed, some horses may just not like wider turns, or may get into more trouble on 2 turns for the same distance based on both their inherent Running Style and the post position they happen to draw. But often RDSS just does not see it that way! It DOES know about 1 versus 2 turn routes, but it deals with those differences by the ITV, then lets you get down to examining which Early horses and which favourites have defects relative to their high rankings and low odds, and which horses are ranked 'good-enough' and with 'good-enough' odds.

We can analyse the following 2 races further if anyone wishes, but here are 2 routes from AQU today (April 2), both paying well, where pacelines from the AQU Inner course were suggested by the 'BLT/C' PSS (Best of Last Three Comparable - Paceline Selection Strategy).

The keys to getting the horses ranked as shown were a) use the PSS then review the resulting line selections, b) decide if Early horses might be compromised, thus favouring Late energy-disbursing horses and Late Running Styles (or, Other Than-Early = OTE). I agree in the case of both winners presented, you would have to relax your Contender analysis to include horses which showed other than 'good' lines last race. But I submit there were reasons to do so - given the PRICE.

In summary - it is possible to 'over-think' the conventional wisdom of how a horse performs on different tracks. I suggest think rather (or at least, in addition): 'how will the horses perform against each other today' running the distance they're going, with your estimation of their current form and recently demonstrated ability (or inability), given their likely Running Style.







For further discussion, as required ...

[GeorgeC5614]

I had actually worked both of those races yesterday.

In race 5 I used different lines for the 3 and the 6 but using the same lines as the screen shots didn't make much difference. I actually had the 6 in the Secondary contenders because he had only one route race in the PP, and that was on an off track over 9 months ago. So I only had 3 contenders, the 1, 2 and 3. After looking at the race in hindsight I think I may need to change my betting mindset. In this race after looking at the PoH and PoR screens for the contenders I came to the conclusion that the 1 horse would be able to hold off the 2 since the 1 had better scores in all three fractions for a race similar to today's pace. My mindset has always been to only bet on the horse I thought would win the race. Since I thought the 1 was going to win and pay less than 2-1 I passed on this race. I knew the 2 was going to be close at the finish, and with the price he was getting I should have went with him. Even if he finished second I would have still made money on a $5 WPS wager.

In race 6 my screen looked like yours. When I was looking at this race I felt the 8, and to a lesser degree the 4 and 7, were going to be pushing the 5 much more than they did in the actual race. With that in mind I thought the 5 would have used much more energy early and give the 9 the opportunity to catch him at the end. I also thought the 9 would be going off about 9-2. I guess the betting public thought the same way I did and bet him down to 3-2. I did place a $5 WPS wager on the 9, and got back $8.50 for a loss of -$6.50 on that race.

Yesterday was actually a good day for me. I am just now getting back into horse playing after many years away. I had an account with an online poker site that still allowed US players that had $28.66 left in it. The site now also has a Racebook so I had downloaded three cards yesterday, Tampa, Aqueduct, and Hawthorne. I found 6 races I wanted to bet on the 4th at Tampa, the 6th, 7th, 8th and 9th at Aqueduct, and the 8th at Hawthorne. I had 2 wins, 2 thirds, 1 miss, and 1 scratched at the gate. The site pays a rebate of 3% on straight bets, and 8% on exotics. I did bet $15 total on exotics none of which paid. I made $88 in straight bets of which $15 was returned due to the late scratch. After the rebate of $3.21 the account balance is now $198.31. I cannot send in the subscription right now, but I will around the 15th

[mowens33]

George, this could be helpful?

[GeorgeC5614]

Thanks for that chart it was an interesting read. For some reason I would have thought the inner dirt routes would have been opposite from the results. The shorter routes, being closer to turn one, would benefit the rail and inside more. While the longer routes with more time for the outside posts to get past the other and over to the rail would benefit the middle and outside posts.

[mowens33]

George, passing this on to give you a better understanding of this chart and one other that may be of interest.

[mowens33]

Here you go