Recap - HOU Race 10 - 2/25

[The Pook]

Originally Posted by Jeebs

Quoting KP: "I didn't pay attention to the class rankings. and neither did you. we both tossed a horse who was the "class of a field" we missed a very gettable $8.60 winner. If you look at the TPR numbers, the 3 and 7 are a 1 point separation and have a 7 point edge over the third ranked horse. they combined for a $26 exacta. take the line of the winner from 3 back, adjust it to Sam Houston, it gets a 102 FFR and runs a 22.8 last quarter. for a cheap 10k claimer! the next fastest closer is 24.5! how did I miss this horse?!?!?...but that was a score that's in excusable to miss, IMO. you won't catch me making that mistake again. use class, every race... it works."

My response to KP was (and feel free to disagree with my stance)... yes, the 7 is the class of the field, but considering the layoff, the length of time between comparable races and the drop (to $10k), I still wouldn't touch this horse at 3-1. I agree that we need to pay careful attention when a horse is clearly "class" and look for clues, but this was a case (IMO) where the odds didn't justify going back to that 3rd line down and making it a contender. There were plenty of horses to select lines for in this particular race and for me (again, didn't play this race, worked it to have a dialogue with KP and learn some things), the proper play would still have been not selecting a line for the 7 and wagercapping by hiding the 3/5 favorite and playing horses in the other BL/BL tiers. Thoughts?

Mr Jeebs,
I took a look at this race when you posted it and didn't have the 7 in my contender group. I agree with you. You can't try and make a case for every horse. Do what you do and get the winners you get. This is like the bit from the Matchup forum where it is advised not to torture yourself making winners come up to the top when you look back. Every horse has something going for it.
You noticed Bill had it in his contender list which is great for him. Didn't pay much for a horse with two donuts for its two last races. The public really pays attention to class.
Thanks for posting the race,
Pook

[kpmats10]

I do a post mortem of every race I lose because I think it's important to do self evaluation and see where you may have made a mistake and what you might've done to correct it.

This was a race I admit I half assed handicapped. In its last race, the #3 Kitchen Boss dominated on my readouts and won with ease, a prime bet candidate that in my opinion paid an overly generous $5.80. I really thought this field at first glance could be beaten by a similar effort. I played a pick 5 and singled the 3 and later did a pick 4 and backed up the with the 5 horse, who is 1 for too-many-chances on the turf.

My original contender selection didn't include the 7 horse, the eventual winner, because I looked at the last two pacelines and thought they were bad races. What I didn't pay attention to was the fact that this horse was dropping from open allowance company into a mid-level (for HOU anyway) claimer. The turf win was powerful.

Then I looked at the class rankings. The 7 owns a significant edge in APV and EPS overall and has the highest APV and second highest EPS for turf earnings. This horse should've been in play.

In the end, I missed an $8 winner, a gettable $8 winner and I cashed no tickets on this race and had to settle for 4 of 5 on the pick 5 for a $9 return instead of cashing a pick 5.

I've attached clean copies of my first analysis of the race, then my revised contenders, and you can see, this $26 exacta was easy enough to get if you put the proper contenders in.

Big lesson learned, dunce cap earned by me.

[Jeebs]

Thanks for the follow up, Keith. We all wear a dunce cap at times... comes with the territory of this game! Keep your eye on the ball and you will be fine.