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05-06-2016, 09:45 PM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Oct 2012
Posts: 377
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Omar's 2016 Ky Derby Analysis
Before I begin I would like to point out that the Tampa Bay Derby is shaping up to be a "KEY" race.Outwork and Brody's Cause came back to win Gr. Stakes while Economic Model,who ran 9th and last,came back on 5/4 to win an Allowance race at Belmont.Star Hill,who ran 3rd at Tampa,finished 5th behind B.C. in the bluegrass.So that leaves us with Destin,who won the Tampa derby.I'll get back to him in a bit.
First I eyeballed the pp's and guess what,just not a lot of speed in this race but there's certainly a bevy of closers! Next i like to see which horses can transfer their sprint speed to routes since that info is available and 2 things jump up at me:a)only a few horses ran in sprints and b)Exaggerator seems to be able transfer his speed to routes.True he shows 3 wins on an off track at different tracks but he shows he can win on a fast surface too.True he got beat by #13 3 times but he doesn't have to do the heavy lifting in this race and should benefit from it.So much for my fundamental analysis now for my technical analysis. I always focus on Sustained Pace(SP)in races of 1-1/4 and up.But i see 8 or 9 horses that are close together here. What i'll focus on then will be the pace shape of race and the horse's Deceleration#,in other words which horse will slow down the least(who can maintain their energy level the longest).Looking at my program,the horses who should be contesting the pace at F1(3/4)are #'s:20(57.49),17(57.14),15(56.23)13(56.06),16(55.72),18(55.59),14(55.48),5(55.56);at C2: #'s 20(57.25),11(56.93),5(56.60),2(54.84); at F2 we have #11(60.04),4(58.05),5(57.62),20(57.02),2&14(56.48),3(56.12);but to clarify all this i look at the deceleration # of these horses:# 9=-.49# 2=-.84,# 4=.99,# 11=-1.74,#6=-1.86, #14=-2.18,#3=-2.51 and #20=-5.32.disregard the minus sign and just look at the whole numbers. The horses who ran faster at F2 than at F1 are as follows:2,3,4,5,6,9,10,11,14,19 and 20 while the lowest deceleration #'s:4,2,9,11,6 and 14 in that order.Now to separate this mess i look towards the 3rd fraction and viola one horse sticks out-the 9(54.21).The next closest would be the 14(53.30),2(51.20),3(51.45),4(52.41),11(52.05),6(52.04). now go back to what i said about the tampa bay derby if the last place horse can come back and win on 5/4 then i have no doubts about the 9 giving a good account of himself here. i see 4 or 5 horses hitting the wire almost together but i have to give and the edge to the 9 on closing ability and freshness while the 11 gets it on versatility on his running style and pace class.i would also use the 2,3,4,5,6,14 and 19 in my exotics around the 9 & 11. In case your wondering who i am, i'm a friend of Bill V.,i use to hang out in his section at the Meadowlands. Happy hunting. |
05-06-2016, 10:52 PM | #2 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Hey
Hey Omar
Long time I miss those days with you and our gang up in the clubhouse , It was a special time in my life , I learned so much, not only about racing but I learned to value of friendship, That is a great work up . I will be rooting good for you and everybody who makes Pace And Cap "the table " |
05-06-2016, 11:52 PM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Oct 2012
Posts: 377
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Good to hear from you. I left out that i'm also putting # 8 in my exotics because he's an unknown as well as the 7-unknown on the dirt.Why don't you throw a few $$ on the 2,4 & 9.If one hits take 1/2 $$ and parlay on your next 2 bets. You have to explain to me how i can put my avatar under my name,can't figure it out.How's the city of Escondido because i'm still thinking about coming your way around sept. 2017.Take care and good luck.
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05-07-2016, 10:04 AM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 507
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Hello all...wishing everyone the best of handicapping and good luck on Derby day...Yesterday I hit the late pic 4 at CD for $1272....that card had a better pic 4 selection than the one on derby day...why did they put that Pat Day one turn mile in the pic 4????I hate using two turn pace lines for a one turn race...I've got the Oaks Derby double going and the Oaks Woodford Derby pic 3 going...had to use 7 horses in the Derby...tough race ...the 7 I used are 5Gun Runner 11Exaggerator 13Nyquist 14Mohaymen 15Outwork 17MorSpirit 20DanzingCandy.....I threw out 9Destin because he has never been over 8.5 furlongs...hope that doesn't backfire on me....Hope everyone wins lots of $$$$$$$$$$...Randy A.
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05-07-2016, 01:17 PM | #5 |
AlwNW2X
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 23
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Big question for me in this race is who survives a 46 and change
1:12 second call? I'm betting that Mike can get #20 to rate, then it becomes a match race 13+20. 11,14,17 round out the exotic's, maybe throw in the 2,3,5. Hope everyone has a great day!! Tom |
05-07-2016, 01:31 PM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Oct 2012
Posts: 377
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I'm alive with 11 horses in the dby-oaks dd:2,3,4,5,8,9,11,13,14,19.
back on march 12 i made 4 $4 future win bets:suddenbreakingnews(always tries),mor spirit,brody's cause,mo tom. in the last pool i made some future exacta bets with gun runner and nyquist to some horses??? you see once you have all info how your mind changes.how many people noticed the key race angle in the tampa bay derby? don't worry about 1/2 turn miles,rate the horse from a 7 1/2,7,6 1/2 race.these are stake horses,go back 10 races if you have to find a race.One more point, ignore all layoffs on the grass. Just because they haven't raced in 2 years rate the horse.They all come back running on the grass. dirt no, syn no, grass yes. go back and check 20 race results on the grass at random and see how many win off long layoffs. Later, Omar. |
05-07-2016, 02:31 PM | #7 |
AlwNW2X
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 23
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I think my point is that early quick pace exposes who the real stakes horses are. Who belongs??
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05-07-2016, 04:53 PM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Oct 2012
Posts: 377
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i don't think the 20 has the staying power + he's going to hurt the 13 not to mention outwork, mohaymen and even the 11 all pressing the pace to the mile call.BE ADVISED STAR HILL CAME BACK AND RAN 3RD IN THE 10TH AT CD TODAY. IF THERE EVER WAS A KEY RACE JUST LOOK TO THE TAMPA BAY DERBY WINNER-DESTIN # 9. AT THE VERY LEAST BET HIM WIN/PLACE!
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