Saturday- Fair Grounds Turf Stakes - "E" Proj Pace

[RichieP]

Here is the 9th from FG this Saturday. A stakes going on the grass at 8.5f

Lets project from the #5's last race:
49.1 - 114.0

Have at it

[RichieP]

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[raceman5]

Like the 6-8 off the tandem race.

Bob

[chuckg]

There are three horses that ran against a faster raw pace on the turf than our pacesetter. 1 , 3 , and 9. But, all at other tracks.

The 2 ran against slower at the same track. - Out

4 5 6 7 and 8 all come out of the same tandem.

I'm going to follow this advice from the 5 step method:

"1. Look at the Tandem horse's, if the winner's time for the Tandem was five fifths (1 full second) slower than today's pace at both the second call and finish then eliminate all of the horses in that Tandem."

Looks like the 3 will be able to set good 2.5 second faster pace all the way to the stretch. So, I'm going to throw out the whole tandem.

Left are 1,3 and 9 out of which 9 is the best closer.

So, then, 9 would be my pick.

[PeteC]

Okay, let’s use the pace from the tandem race. #5 was on the lead in 49.1 114.0….

#3 is the other early horse in the race. I don’t see either one of these winning so I’m looking for an OTE winner...

#1 has won against faster paces from 3rd position…Contender
#2 Line 2 was against a little slower pace than today and it finished a non-threatening 3rd…OUT
#4 was well beaten in the tandem…OUT
#6 is the tandem winner who closed from the clouds. Has run closer to the pace before though and has also won against a faster pace at GP…Contender
#7 was also beaten in the tandem…OUT
#8 lost to #6 by a neck in the tandem…Contender
#9 has some close finishes but not close enough for me…OUT

I will eliminate the 8 at this point. The 6 won by a neck but was 3 wide and 6 wide and usually runs closer to the pace than last time. If the 1 runs back to lines 3,4 or 5 I think it will beat them both.

I’ll take the 1 and the 6…

[lone speed]

Ok, let's give a try in this turf race....sometimes when you see the same horses competing against each other, you usually find out later, that it is the new face or the new contender that comes out ahead....

Alot of these horses are coming out of the same tandem race or are coming out of slow early pace fractions...So out of the tandem races,it seems that one-two finishers, Cherokee Queen and Pleasantly Blessed come out the best..

The number (1) Skipping Town is coming off a freshener,therefore the last last is not a true line for this horse. I will always remember what Tom Brohamer said regarding the treatment of each possible contenders. Tom said that we have to be fair to each contenders and give the best possible line for each contender to compete without any preconceived bias against any contenders and let the program determine the best paceline for each contenders..I know there are those who followed a stringent guideline for choosing "the correct pacelines", but I like to think that it depends on the circumstances of each contenders; is this contender/horse coming off a layoff; is this contender/horse a negative class dropper where the trainer is giving up on the horse to compete at his usual level or are we looking at a developing horse who will jump up today and exceed the abilities that he had previously shown his prior pacelines...

Regarding Skipping Town, the 4th line back or the 5th line back seem like the similiar condition for this horse who had race on dirt following a freshener of 3 months off.

The only other horse who has me interested in this race is Poof Too. The last paceline for this horse, he seem to have made a early move into the early pace and kinda flattened out. In his 2nd paceline, he made a bold belated move, off some slow early fractions. This one fits the profile of a developing horse who can excel in today's matchup. Instead of pasting his fractions together from his last two races, I will choose the 4th pace line back and adjust for age development....(I am aware what Sartin preached about being adjustment happy, but I am more than willing to stand by myself and follow the young developing horse theory.)

My two contenders are Cherokee Queen and Poof Too.

Good Skills to all.

[emilio840]

Hi to all.

I'll take the #1 here. The 1 can win from 3rd position. And it ran a good race on the 4th line down.

emilio

[partsnut]

The (6) Cherokee Queen has the best recent and back class. Additionally
this horse displays the the top speed figure and has the strongest 2nd & 3rd fraction.
The (3) Juanta has the best pace figure and is showing some good works.
This horse shows a great win percentage on the turf. the trainer is very successful at switching surfaces and this should be a factor today.

[chris]

Am not convinced that using a yielding turf course is the best starting point for a match-up; though my preference has been to first handicap the handicappers, not the match-up, and "Project" with whom they'll invest their dreams. The public often favors the last race winner, who in this scenario is a multiple stakes winner and probably warrants favoritism; will she put two wins together, never has, though she may today?

Used a straight RDSS (Val 4) approach and hiding the last race winner, came up with two horses, with a decided preference for one - #7 She's Adorable. This is a horse who turned in a credible performance on a yielding course, and her past performances show competitive races on a firm Fairgrounds turf course, and most important, I believe this mare will be offered at odds of 8-1 or higher. If not I can pass.

There are a number of other worthies in this race, and many were the focus of the preceeding comments; they all had merit and were the result of some serious handicapping. Though in the end we will either become our own "Experts" and invest with our own choices, or we'll be overly influenced by others and allow them to map our handicapping futures. Misguided or not, I prefer to risk being my own expert.

Regards, and good luck to all,

chris

[Capcondo]

This is a tough race because the S type horses may be too far behin the front runners. But, it still looks like it is going to run sustained at 8.5 furlongs. I used the tandem as the projected pace but think it will go faster. I am looking for a horse with a fast 3rd fraction since the will have much ground to make up.

The 1,3, and 5 are the pacesetters and are out.

The rest:

2: Ran against slow paces and is out.
4: Slow
6: Tandem with 5 in last. 3rd fraction is 23.7. Last two very late. Contender.
7: Out of tandem in 7th position. Will run too late.
8: Out of tandem. Will be ahead of the 6. 3rd fractions of 29.8, 22.0, and 30.5. Contender.
9: 7th position at first call. Too late.

Contenders are the 6 and 8. My choice is the 8.

Tim