2009 Road to the Triple Crown - Pace and Cap

jms62 · 12-20-2008, 06:45 AM

Starts Tonight with the 750 K Cashcall

alydar_ David · 12-20-2008, 11:03 AM

Interesting. I came up with the same horses -- 7-5-1 -- using a completely different methodology. I think #5 Pioneer of the Nile has a slightly better chance to win, but the 8-1 morning line on #7 I Want Revenge makes that baby a better bet for me. Let's nail this race!

jms62 · 12-21-2008, 12:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alydar_David

Interesting. I came up with the same horses -- 7-5-1 -- using a completely different methodology. I think #5 Pioneer of the Nile has a slightly better chance to win, but the 8-1 morning line on #7 I Want Revenge makes that baby a better bet for me. Let's nail this race!

We nailed it but missed a nice score by the length of a nose..

alydar_ David · 12-22-2008, 12:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jms62

We nailed it but missed a nice score by the length of a nose..

We need a horse bred by Jimmy Durante.

;>)

Tim Y · 12-23-2008, 03:24 PM

Unless there is a "force of nature" in the wings at two
Unless those few mature properly
Unless none of them get hurt stretching out, AND
Unless there is not another force of nature yet hidden to us.

It is folly to try and make any sense of the three years going to the Derby until about the 2nd week of April.

Ted Craven · 12-23-2008, 05:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tim Y

It is folly to try and make any sense of the three years going to the Derby until about the 2nd week of April.

Fine, great, thanks very much, we'll write that down. Meanwhile, on the darkest night of the year, the beginning of Winter, they run a horse race which is the kickoff to the joy of horseracing's Spring and biggest day. It's just a single race which happens to be for 2 year olds. Jim (JMS) follows this series of races every year if you have been paying attention, so why not lay off the lecture over the Holidays and continue to just enjoy the racing.

Ted

Tim Y · 12-23-2008, 09:41 PM

Hell I did not want to stymie conversation, but it has always been a bit irrelevant to the field that gets into that gate about 5:42 the first Saturday in May...No different than projecting the BCS winners in September, and just about as accurate...whereas a discussion in mid November can be predictive and rational.

Hoist the Flag, Success Express, Tom Rolfe, Mr Frisky, Snow Chief, Holy Bull, Favorite Trick, the French 2 y/o Breeder's Cup Champion, Houston, Tasso, the list is endless, Buddha, Cahill Road, Avatar, Rumbo, Forty Niner, Risen Star....many of these save a few had more press than possiblity and it ashamed that the public got duped on horses like Pyro, Tacit, Sweetnorthersaint, Stormello, NoBiz Like Showbiz, Scat Daddy, Bellamy Road, or Bob n' John.

Many of these screamed that the distance is too far (of never even got there) that first Saturday in May by their segmental velocity numbers but few listen.

no lecture simple fact

tom · 12-23-2008, 11:02 PM

It's the road to the triple crown.....enjoy the ride.

jms62 · 12-24-2008, 07:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tim Y

Unless there is a "force of nature" in the wings at two
Unless those few mature properly
Unless none of them get hurt stretching out, AND
Unless there is not another force of nature yet hidden to us.

It is folly to try and make any sense of the three years going to the Derby until about the 2nd week of April.

Tim, as usual I'm not sure of the point you are trying to make. These races leading up to the Triple Crown are great betting races. If you think that the tools we use won't get us winners (and big prices at that) than by all means sit them out.. I however know otherwise.. For someone who always preachs about "no rules", you sure always seem to be applying them.

Ted Craven · 12-24-2008, 08:35 AM

I think the point Tim is trying to make is: "you just can't tell who's gonna win next year's Kentucky Derby until closer to the race." Call it "Tim's axiom #1". And related to that is: "a lotta horses who try, will fail to win the Kentucky Derby" (see example names above - axiom #2?) Then there's "you can lead a horse to water...", "but you can't step in the same river twice", "fool me twice shame on me", and other pearls...

Meanwhile, in the Selections Forum, I imagine we're more focused on who's going to win the current race (and making good money from that), than who's going to win a race 4 months from now.

Ted

12-24-2008, 08:35 AM	#10
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 8,854	I think the point Tim is trying to make is: "you just can't tell who's gonna win next year's Kentucky Derby until closer to the race." Call it "Tim's axiom #1". And related to that is: "a lotta horses who try, will fail to win the Kentucky Derby" (see example names above - axiom #2?) Then there's "you can lead a horse to water...", "but you can't step in the same river twice", "fool me twice shame on me", and other pearls... Meanwhile, in the Selections Forum, I imagine we're more focused on who's going to win the current race (and making good money from that), than who's going to win a race 4 months from now. Ted __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™

12-20-2008, 06:45 AM	#1
jms62 Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 798	2009 Road to the Triple Crown Starts Tonight with the 750 K Cashcall Attached Images

12-20-2008, 11:03 AM	#2
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	Interesting. I came up with the same horses -- 7-5-1 -- using a completely different methodology. I think #5 Pioneer of the Nile has a slightly better chance to win, but the 8-1 morning line on #7 I Want Revenge makes that baby a better bet for me. Let's nail this race!

12-23-2008, 03:24 PM	#5
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	Unless there is a "force of nature" in the wings at two Unless those few mature properly Unless none of them get hurt stretching out, AND Unless there is not another force of nature yet hidden to us. It is folly to try and make any sense of the three years going to the Derby until about the 2nd week of April. __________________ Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind."

12-23-2008, 09:41 PM	#7
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	Hell I did not want to stymie conversation, but it has always been a bit irrelevant to the field that gets into that gate about 5:42 the first Saturday in May...No different than projecting the BCS winners in September, and just about as accurate...whereas a discussion in mid November can be predictive and rational. Hoist the Flag, Success Express, Tom Rolfe, Mr Frisky, Snow Chief, Holy Bull, Favorite Trick, the French 2 y/o Breeder's Cup Champion, Houston, Tasso, the list is endless, Buddha, Cahill Road, Avatar, Rumbo, Forty Niner, Risen Star....many of these save a few had more press than possiblity and it ashamed that the public got duped on horses like Pyro, Tacit, Sweetnorthersaint, Stormello, NoBiz Like Showbiz, Scat Daddy, Bellamy Road, or Bob n' John. Many of these screamed that the distance is too far (of never even got there) that first Saturday in May by their segmental velocity numbers but few listen. no lecture simple fact __________________ Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind." Last edited by Tim Y; 12-23-2008 at 09:55 PM.

12-23-2008, 11:02 PM	#8
tom Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 644	It's the road to the triple crown.....enjoy the ride.