projecting pace - Pace and Cap

mikesal57 · 12-16-2009, 08:27 AM

To me projecting the pace is the most important factor in handicapping
It can eliminate almost as much as 75% of the field in some cases

Going back on past post in the Hat Check forum, I've come to this and similar posts by The Hat and Richie were they project the pace of race.
Just like in his books , this race has me baffled on why and how he chooses the pace and from what lines in the PP's he uses. Its not from the same track as today..its not from the same distance as today ..and its not from the same horses as todays...its not from the last line..times are from different horses

Just think about this...even using software..you have a 10 horse field...u have 9 horses that have current pacelines that can be used based on your criterias, best of last 3 -in the money finishes-etc, we all know that entering that many horses will cause problems...wouldnt it be nice to dwindle these down to that goal of 3-4-5 horses?

Can u explain why?

thxs

mike

race #6 from Belmont

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1567

mikesal57 · 12-16-2009, 09:11 AM

also note:

This race is in Sept at Belmont

the first 2 calls are from the #7 which was run at Calder in May(4 months earlier)

Listen -this is a typical race run in New York or any other big track were horses come from all over the country with various races from distance switches, track surfaces , layoffs etc..

This is a matches nightmare race( I believe) , if somehow I can get some sort of a handle on this...everything else would be easier...hopefully

mike

justin13892002 · 12-16-2009, 10:13 AM

Mike,

I believe it is because it was the fastest pace the 7 has been able to "set" in his pp's??

Maybe?

lol

mikesal57 · 12-16-2009, 12:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justin13892002

Mike,

I believe it is because it was the fastest pace the 7 has been able to "set" in his pp's??

Maybe?

lol

but why the 7...why pick a route from May and today is a sprint

justin13892002 · 12-16-2009, 12:13 PM

Mike,

By the way it looks, the 7 NEEDS the lead, and will do whatever to get it. You can't select a TURF line for the pace. It only leaves a few Dirt Lines to choose from. The 7 "SET" the Fastest pace out of all his lines in that dirt mile at Calder. I believe that race went 4 furlongs in 45, and the other races in the PP's, the horse set a 46 or 47 pace??

mikesal57 · 12-16-2009, 03:12 PM

maybe I shouldn't say this but I will...

its been over a year since I went the course of learning the match-up
and now I don't think I'm any better than say 4-6-8 months ago..
I just read book 2 and its just added more wood to the fire..
Part 1 in the book you have matching the "key" race to other horses.The key race being the horse that ran closest to the fastest paced race...
Part 2 you have the "projected pace" chapter using early horses..
The Hat Check forum you have posts teaching using positions only...
This post has beaten lengths in the picture..
You have using recent races for pacelines...
You have the section on matching "Power Lines" which can be anywhere in the PP's for pacelines..

Maybe I'm frustrated or upset that this 2 months off would get me somehow ahead..but I'm not!!
they say there are "no rules" what I see is "no uniformity"

Sorry if I offended anyone..I just had to vent

is there any one out there that are 100% matchers ??

mike

tom · 12-16-2009, 03:37 PM

Hardly a 100% matcher, but a thing I do I picked up from Pizzola and Bert Mayne at a seminar in Albany one cold winter!

Look at the first and second calls for every horse and circle every 1.
2 by hd is not a 1. Not time limits, no distance, no surface concerns. Just 1's.
Then, go back and circle the times for each circled 1.
Now, list the 1c and 2c times, in order in the margin of the PPs ( we used the DRF back in the day!)

Example - 22.0, 22.1, 22.1 22.2,22.2, 22.4, 24.1
Example - 45.1, 45.1, 45.1, 45.2, 45.3, 46.2, 46.4

I'm now looking at POR lines of about 22.1 45.2 give or take a fifth. I do the +,O,X form cycle on those lines to get a feel for the race, before I go any of my programs.

I tried doing this with BRIS pace figures - and got nowhere. Raw was better.

mikesal57 · 12-16-2009, 04:19 PM

Tom

Great start...from the post I started ...I got a idea of something like that to try..you confirmed it..

Now we have a pace of 22.1 45.2

next ..

look at horse #1.. line -1 do u eliminate the horse if the FRACTIONS ONLY are slower than our pace projection or do u go down the line and see if there is a line where the horse ran in the money at that pace and list him as a contender...How far should/can u go down?

do this for each horse till u got your contenders

I'm trying to avoid software , how would u match whats left

mike

shoeless · 12-16-2009, 05:03 PM

Mike, If you havent done so already on one of the seminar tapes that was done in Las Vegas Gary Owens gives a good presentation of this.I believe Tom was at another seminar that Gary was at so he could probably explain it.

SIDE NOTE:PLEASE DONT GIVE BILL A HARD TIME ABOUT ME POSTING THIS AS HE HAS ALREADY ASKED ME NOT TO POST BUT IM JUST TRYING TO BE HELPFUL HERE.

mikesal57 · 12-16-2009, 05:13 PM

Jeff...I see no harm in this...I will check it out..thanks
i think my post was more damaging...

12-16-2009, 09:11 AM	#2
mikesal57 Grade 1 Join Date: May 2008 Location: Staten Island, NY Posts: 3,952	also note: This race is in Sept at Belmont the first 2 calls are from the #7 which was run at Calder in May(4 months earlier) Listen -this is a typical race run in New York or any other big track were horses come from all over the country with various races from distance switches, track surfaces , layoffs etc.. This is a matches nightmare race( I believe) , if somehow I can get some sort of a handle on this...everything else would be easier...hopefully mike __________________ Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack

12-16-2009, 04:19 PM	#8
mikesal57 Grade 1 Join Date: May 2008 Location: Staten Island, NY Posts: 3,952	Tom Great start...from the post I started ...I got a idea of something like that to try..you confirmed it.. Now we have a pace of 22.1 45.2 next .. look at horse #1.. line -1 do u eliminate the horse if the FRACTIONS ONLY are slower than our pace projection or do u go down the line and see if there is a line where the horse ran in the money at that pace and list him as a contender...How far should/can u go down? do this for each horse till u got your contenders I'm trying to avoid software , how would u match whats left mike __________________ Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack Last edited by mikesal57; 12-16-2009 at 04:32 PM.

12-16-2009, 05:03 PM	#9
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,151	Mike, If you havent done so already on one of the seminar tapes that was done in Las Vegas Gary Owens gives a good presentation of this.I believe Tom was at another seminar that Gary was at so he could probably explain it. SIDE NOTE:PLEASE DONT GIVE BILL A HARD TIME ABOUT ME POSTING THIS AS HE HAS ALREADY ASKED ME NOT TO POST BUT IM JUST TRYING TO BE HELPFUL HERE. Last edited by Bill V.; 12-16-2009 at 09:11 PM. Reason: clear

12-16-2009, 05:13 PM	#10
mikesal57 Grade 1 Join Date: May 2008 Location: Staten Island, NY Posts: 3,952	Jeff...I see no harm in this...I will check it out..thanks i think my post was more damaging... __________________ Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack

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12-16-2009, 08:27 AM	#1
mikesal57 Grade 1 Join Date: May 2008 Location: Staten Island, NY Posts: 3,952	projecting pace To me projecting the pace is the most important factor in handicapping It can eliminate almost as much as 75% of the field in some cases Going back on past post in the Hat Check forum, I've come to this and similar posts by The Hat and Richie were they project the pace of race. Just like in his books , this race has me baffled on why and how he chooses the pace and from what lines in the PP's he uses. Its not from the same track as today..its not from the same distance as today ..and its not from the same horses as todays...its not from the last line..times are from different horses Just think about this...even using software..you have a 10 horse field...u have 9 horses that have current pacelines that can be used based on your criterias, best of last 3 -in the money finishes-etc, we all know that entering that many horses will cause problems...wouldnt it be nice to dwindle these down to that goal of 3-4-5 horses? Can u explain why? thxs mike race #6 from Belmont http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1567 __________________ Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack Last edited by mikesal57; 12-16-2009 at 08:39 AM.

12-16-2009, 10:13 AM	#3
justin13892002 Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 154	Mike, I believe it is because it was the fastest pace the 7 has been able to "set" in his pp's?? Maybe? lol

12-16-2009, 12:13 PM	#5
justin13892002 Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 154	Mike, By the way it looks, the 7 NEEDS the lead, and will do whatever to get it. You can't select a TURF line for the pace. It only leaves a few Dirt Lines to choose from. The 7 "SET" the Fastest pace out of all his lines in that dirt mile at Calder. I believe that race went 4 furlongs in 45, and the other races in the PP's, the horse set a 46 or 47 pace??

12-16-2009, 03:12 PM	#6
mikesal57 Grade 1 Join Date: May 2008 Location: Staten Island, NY Posts: 3,952	maybe I shouldn't say this but I will... its been over a year since I went the course of learning the match-up and now I don't think I'm any better than say 4-6-8 months ago.. I just read book 2 and its just added more wood to the fire.. Part 1 in the book you have matching the "key" race to other horses.The key race being the horse that ran closest to the fastest paced race... Part 2 you have the "projected pace" chapter using early horses.. The Hat Check forum you have posts teaching using positions only... This post has beaten lengths in the picture.. You have using recent races for pacelines... You have the section on matching "Power Lines" which can be anywhere in the PP's for pacelines.. Maybe I'm frustrated or upset that this 2 months off would get me somehow ahead..but I'm not!! they say there are "no rules" what I see is "no uniformity" Sorry if I offended anyone..I just had to vent is there any one out there that are 100% matchers ?? mike __________________ Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack

12-16-2009, 03:37 PM	#7
tom Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 644	Hardly a 100% matcher, but a thing I do I picked up from Pizzola and Bert Mayne at a seminar in Albany one cold winter! Look at the first and second calls for every horse and circle every 1. 2 by hd is not a 1. Not time limits, no distance, no surface concerns. Just 1's. Then, go back and circle the times for each circled 1. Now, list the 1c and 2c times, in order in the margin of the PPs ( we used the DRF back in the day!) Example - 22.0, 22.1, 22.1 22.2,22.2, 22.4, 24.1 Example - 45.1, 45.1, 45.1, 45.2, 45.3, 46.2, 46.4 I'm now looking at POR lines of about 22.1 45.2 give or take a fifth. I do the +,O,X form cycle on those lines to get a feel for the race, before I go any of my programs. I tried doing this with BRIS pace figures - and got nowhere. Raw was better.