Oaks/ Derby weekend Stakes races with Multiple "E" runners

[Bill V.]

Tandems
Key
8-7 Breeders cup day 2010 9.0 CD
49.1 113.8 138 150
5-9 13Nov10 CD 8.5 24.2 48.4 113 145

FPLR
Horse 4 All Due Respect
24.5 46.5 109.9 136 2 2 2 1

Early -Need To lead Group
Horse 9 Absinthe Minded 8.5 23.6 47.4 111.8 143.6 1 1 1 1
This will also be my projected Pace of race
23.6 47.4 111.8 143.6

Early Can Pass Horses Group w/powerlines
H1 Quiet Giant 8.3 23.2 47.7 111.6 141
H2 Miss Luann

E-EP Group
H4 All Due Respect 8.0 24.5 46.5 109.9 136 2 2 2 1
H5 Stage Magic CD 8.5 24.2 48.4 113 145 2 2 1 1
H8 Unrivaled Belle SAR 47 110.5 134.9 148.1 2 2 2 2

Sus Group
H3 Seeking The Title PRM 23.5 46.8 110.8 141.8 4 4 3 1
H6 Ravi's Song INd 23.8 47.6 111.9 143.2 6 3 2 1
H7 Blind Luck OP 23.8 47,5 111.6 142 7 7 5 2

Matching lines
Out go horses 1 2 5 and 9

Race will go other than early
Matching Horses
3 4 7 and 8
win bets horse 7 and 3


GSM
Bill V.
Carlsbad Ca.

[PeteC]

Originally Posted by PeteC

Good morning all. Big racing weekend, hope everyone here does well.

Earlies 1,2 and 9.

OTE runners who can win or finish very close from 4th or further against a mid-47 or faster half…6,7 and 8.

Matching power lines for those horses #8 runs closest to the pace factoring time and position.

Well, the 2 is now scratched....

Now looking at the OTE runners I'm also including #4, who has run well against a fast pace too. Initially I saw that this one has not done well from further back than 2nd at the 1st call. However, I noticed now that it has won from 4th and 3rd at the break.

#4 23.0 46.1 109.4 134.1 2-3 2-1 1-1 1-2.5
#8 23.2 46.3 110.4 142.2 1-1 1-5 1-6

These are my final two and they look closely matched.

[Capcondo]

I have the #9 as the early horse and the 1,4, and 8 as E/P.

Using the 9's second back as the paceline I get a 23.6 47.5 1:11.6.

The 1 shows a 23.2 in a race 7 back at Delaware so given the early speed, I'm going to modify the paceline to 23.2 47.5 1:11.6.

Looking at the 8 I see:

47 1:10.5
23.2 45.6 1:08.4 (granted never repeated)
23.5 46.6 1:10.8
Also a win in the breeder's cup from the 5 position at the 1st call.

I'm on the 8 with what I fear is no price.

Tim

[emilio840]

CD

I like #8 in this race and my 2nd choice would be #4

emilio

[Bill V.]

We all kind of ended up on the 7 or 8 and thats how it went .
Hope the Derby and The Del. race turn out with a better price.
I'm sure the Derby will

[Dave Schwartz]

Here are the results of the last 8 Ky Derby races from the stand point of when the winner first took the lead or challenged for it:

Pos Summary  1st Call  2nd Call   Stretch   Finish
 1st Lead         0         2         5         1
      Pct         0%       25%       63%       13%

   <1 Len         0         4         3         1
      Pct         0%       50%       38%       13%

In other words, 6 of the 8 winners took the lead at the stretch call or later, but 7 of them were within a length at the stretch call or earlier.

             1st Call  2nd Call   Stretch
Pos High         19        12         6
Len High      19.50     10.00      2.75

Pos Avg        9.88      4.25      1.63
Len Avg        8.59      2.70      0.34

Beaten lengths at the calls tell a clear story. Basically, 1st call does not matter, with the average winner being almost 10th, by over 8.5 lengths.

However, by the 2nd call, the horse must have moved to within 5th place and inside of 3 lengths.

The progress must continue to to within 2nd place and inside of a length at the stretch call.




Charts of the winners with horses that fit the "average model" calls.

[PeteC]

Wow, lot's of early pressure to say the least! The 3 and 11 are the fastest earlies to me but the 1,2,4,6 and 8 all like to be on the lead or very close positionally.

I like the 9 horse to come from out of it. Lines 4 and 10 show power moves and close finishes against 21.4 first calls which is close to what I expect here. Let's see if he can mow 'em down late!

[Bill V.]

Never saw a race like this
To be very honest, At this stage off my matching training, This one probably will do more harm than good to my matching ability

I will have to pass this one
I will watch and take notes but I am just fooling myself walking into this one
Gun to my head
9 and 11

Bill V.

[emilio840]

del

Here I like the #11. I know there is lots of speed here. I think that this race will run early. And the 11 seems to have plenty of energy.

emilio

[PeteC]

On to the Derby...

For this one I will look for OTE runners who can finish close against 46.1 pace set by #14.

My OTE contenders are 1,3,8 and 19.