Parx -Saturday 11/12 - TM 103 Race Class

[For The Lead]

Interesting.
Thanks.

[shoeless]

David,

Nice job of mapping out how you use Syn 4.Actually Pino and I were using
Syn 2 at CT and just boxing top 3 SCBL,we hit a couple of big ones 300-400 dollars.Then it dried up so we stopped doing it.

Pino,Richie and I also followed E.Sidewater(really nice guy was a teacher)
directions in FU 17 and we were hitting pretty well till that dried up.

I guess looking back we should have stuck with it.

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by alydar_David

Here's how I'd interpret my posted SYN4 readouts based on FTL's pacelines.

First, I'd look at the fractional velocities.

Attachment 24848

Under F1 you can see they are close early. Indeed #4 and #6 are tied. They're all over each other at F2. SC is also contentious. FT I pretty much ignore. Some people can handicap from these velocities readings alone. I'm not one of them. I look to get a gestalt -- an overall view -- of the race.

Then I'd look at the projected 2nd Call Beaten Lengths.

Attachment 24849

This gives me a general idea of where they'll be at the second call. Looks like a pace duel here. But I don't handicap alone from this screen. Some people, Pino I think, used to box four horses in the exacta from this readout alone (although I might be wrong about that). In any event I use it to give me an idea of how the race sets up. Also, if I see someone way behind at the second call I'd have to think twice about betting him.

From the Pace Ratings screen I look to see who has the top TPR.

Attachment 24850

Here it's #6 with 186. At this point I'd eliminate anyone more than five points away from win contention. 186-5=181. So, you'd need at least 181 to be a contender here. They all qualify. If you keep records of your track you can note the EPR/LPR difference. This is the same as BAL on later programs. It's a numerical representation of the graphic sticks you see in Val, etcetera.

From the Rankings screen I look for further eliminations.

Attachment 24851

Any horse that does not have a "1" or a "2" in at least one category is a throwout. Here #7 is the only horse that doesn't have a "1" or "2". At this point I'd scratch (hide) him.

If it's a dirt sprint I'd then look at the Medium Energy percentages. Any horse with a 70% or higher has to knock my socks off in other areas or out he goes. This is a route race so that's not applicable.

At this point I'd check my track model to see which categories are producing winners. Since I don't have a track model for this I'll go back to the Pace Ratings screen and see if I have any bets.

SYN4 generates Fair Odds. You can select how much of an overlay you're willing to accept before the horse becomes bettable. I choose 50% and follow Barry Meadow's betting suggestions. (See Barry Meadows' Money Secrets At The Racetrack)

Attachment 24850

Looking at Fair Odds of 6-1 or less I find only one overlay. #4 has overlay odds (odds I can bet at) of 5.8 to 1. In other words I can bet this horse if it's paying at least 5.8 to 1 to win. According to the result chart Richie posted the horse went off at 12.90 to 1. That's enough to make it a good bet.

So, if I were betting this race that's who I would of bet.

I should mention that other folks might have bet the winner based on these readouts. The above is only my way of looking at all this stuff.

And of course if my track model indicated horses with a "1" or "2" in LP, 1+3, 2FR and LE were winning then I'd be all over this horse. I'd also be able to see if his Medium Energy falls within the winning parameters for this track, distance, class, sex, age (depending on how detailed you want, or can make the model).

I never used Syn2 or Syn4, so I wasn’t sure what it was, however, now that you have explained it, I do know something about it. In fact, I had a guy write me a program years ago do this.

First, all lines were taken directly from the Racing Form, sorry, no “on line” stuff in those days. All “3 year best times” were also taken from the Racing Form. When inputting lines, there was a place to enter a variant, which was also taken from the Racing Form. Built into the program was an “average daily variant”, which was “17”. At the time, there was information available that said, if you averaged the daily variant for all tracks, for every race, for an entire year, the average was “17”, so that was the base line used. So I guess this is what you might refer to as “the setup” in either Syn2 or Syn4.

As far as “how to use it” goes, I agree that any horse within the 5 points of the top horse was considered a contender, however, it doesn’t always work out that way. Sometimes there is one horse that sits at the top and is more than 5 points higher than the rest of the field. In that case, the “5 point rule” would be applied to the next highest horse and all the horses that fall in that area were considered contenders along with the top horse. In addition, there are times when an early horse ranked 1 or 2 does not fall into the parameters noted above in the “5 point rule”. Because of its’ 1 or 2 ranking, that horse would also be considered a contender. The same applied to the third fraction horses. If a horse ranked 1 or 2 for third fraction did not fall into the “5 point rule” noted above, it was still considered a contender.

The program would print out all of the various velocity ratings and rankings along with either %early or %med, whichever you chose. It also had a model built in, where you could store information on the winning horse by track distance, surface, age, sex and race type. It was really a very nice program for the time.

Since none of these style programs “point” you towards a projected winner, record keeping naturally played a LARGE part in future decision making when choosing horses to bet.

[alydar_ David]

[FTL's comments are in blue.]

...So I guess this is what you might refer to as “the setup” in either Syn2 or Syn4.

Let's go back to the race, again using your pacelines. For setup I'm going to use the most common ground which is 8F, not 8.318 which the race was actually run. The pacelines for #2,#3 and #7 were all run at a mile. That is the most common distance. Ergo, the distance we use for SYN2 is one mile.

For the second call I'm using #4's last race of 111 4/5.

For the final time I'm using #2's last race of 139 1/5.

This is where the matchup comes into play. I'm not using pars. I'm using the contenders' lines only.

For track record I'm using the track record of 134 4/5.

The program automatically makes variant energy adjustments based on the above.



At this point this screen should be self-explanatory:




As far as “how to use it” goes, I agree that any horse within the 5 points of the top horse was considered a contender, however, it doesn’t always work out that way. Sometimes there is one horse that sits at the top and is more than 5 points higher than the rest of the field.

This is not common, but it does happen. When it does I will not hide or bet against this top horse. I'll either bet him to win and place, or look to see if there's value in the show pool if this is a big stakes race. Betting against these horses is a losing proposition in the long run. Note, this applies to RDSS too.

In that case, the “5 point rule” would be applied to the next highest horse and all the horses that fall in that area were considered contenders along with the top horse.

That's what was recommended in Pace Makes The Race. However, in my experience these horses are not true win contenders. They are in the race, but I won't back any of them to win.

In addition, there are times when an early horse ranked 1 or 2 does not fall into the parameters noted above in the “5 point rule”.

True.

Because of its’ 1 or 2 ranking, that horse would also be considered a contender.

Here we disagree. I'd say that horse may affect the outcome of the race, but he would not be a win contender.

The same applied to the third fraction horses. If a horse ranked 1 or 2 for third fraction did not fall into the “5 point rule” noted above, it was still considered a contender.

The program would print out all of the various velocity ratings and rankings along with either %early or %med, whichever you chose. It also had a model built in, where you could store information on the winning horse by track distance, surface, age, sex and race type. It was really a very nice program for the time.

Sounds nifty.

Since none of these style programs “point” you towards a projected winner, record keeping naturally played a LARGE part in future decision making when choosing horses to bet.

I strongly agree.

Getting back to the race at hand, I learned from Pino and Jeff that when you don't have a track model you look for horses that are ranked first or second in FW, TT and DR.



Three horses qualify: #6, #1 and #3.
If you go by the actual TT number it's #6 and #1 as the final contenders (but you're really splitting hairs prefering 53.47 over 53.46).

If I were betting this race with the odds on #6 and #1 both being above 3-1 I'd have made the wager 50%/50%. Here it would have worked out.

Using SYN2 I'd have won this race.

As you can see though there's a lot of handicapping done before the pacelines are entered when using SYN2. However if I had to bet $1000 on a race I'd definitely use SYN2 rather than SYN4 or SYN7 (the other SYN program I have).

[raceman5]

is that program still around to get? Do u enter the pacelines by hand?


Bob

[gl45]

AD,
well done. I like to remind the power of 50 in the 3rd. fraction.
#1= 51.93
#3= 51.63
#2= 51.42
and looking at the fractions for each horse, become evident who has the best late kick. Horse #1

[shoeless]

In Sidewater's test done at Philly Park he used the actual turn time not
the turn time formula.


When I talked to Sidewater he told me Doc originally wanted him to test
FW and DR.But from his records he noticed at Philly that TT was a big factor
so he added that as well.By doing so he got much better results.

[gl45]

Jeff,
maybe I dust off Syn2 use it with NP an RT and see what gives. Maybe is time to have fun again...what you say..CT and MNR. I'll keep the profiles.
give me few days to upgrade my old lap with faster whatever they call it.
I'll keep in touch when ready.
Say hi to J.
Ciao

[alydar_ David]

Originally Posted by raceman5

is that program still around to get? Do u enter the pacelines by hand?


Bob

I don't know if it's still around, Bob. It's a manual paceline entry program.

[SilentRun]

Here is my take on the race using RDSS my contenders are shown below.
The 5 was scratched leaving the 6,1, 2 and 3. From the top 3 I generally would bet 2 horses based on acceptable odds...in this case the 1 and 6.

However I have been using a tie breaking calculation that was presented in one of the New Pace workshop videos which basically averages the speed of the last race back to all the races based on a multiplier that varies resulting in a speed total for the horse. This calculation will be available in the next version of RDSS 2.0. I only went back to the last 3 lines because it is a pain to do it manually. It is just another tool I am using to see if I can improve my edge.

The speed differences between my top 3 contenders are:

#1 = 164, #2 = 162, #6 = 157 and # 3 = 155.

As you can see # 1 had the top speed which was the winner paying 13.60.
and as everyone knows the exacta was 1/2 and paid 32.20.
The 6 horse which was on top of the RDSS food chain did not even run ITM.
For me the #1 was a definite bet at 5/1.
Looking at the total speed numbers I concluded that the 6 could not keep up with the 1 and 2. So it worked out for this race. I only have been using this technique for about a dozen races but it
has been helping me to quantify the contenders. In fact it has worked very well in the 6,7 and 8th races at Woodbine today.

Ernie