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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems |
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02-12-2018, 09:18 PM | #11 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
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02-12-2018, 09:19 PM | #12 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
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And CONGRATS Bill!
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02-12-2018, 10:36 PM | #13 | ||
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Readouts and match up
Quote:
Quote:
Bob, Tim (Jeebs) has it exactly. The 7 was in the top 2 RX3 but all the early horses on the RX3 readout were in a tight group. The VDC percentages readout from the TPR screen shows how tight VDC was in this race. I took the best early, which I thought would be the 7. For other than early I went with the 3 over the 1. I based this on the fact that the 3 had better 3rd fraction type readouts than the 1 and was # 2 on powerline. and was top 2 on CR+ I use phase 1 so I looked at that screen, Here also I saw all the horses were within 5 points on TPR ( CPR) When I placed my bet the 1 was 3/5. The 3 was 5/1. So that choice was supported along with the 3 having better 3rd fraction readouts than the 1. |
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02-12-2018, 10:38 PM | #14 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Thanks
Thank you Mitch and Jeebs
Good question Bob Good Skill Bill |
02-13-2018, 06:32 AM | #15 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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I concur with your analysis Bill and made a post similar to your conclusion sometime back. Least deceleration won this race. In a FTL recent post I said members should look at the percentages of CR or CR+ for possible contenders along with a few other things in RDSS to get higher than 64% in the top 4 . Nice analysis and bet Bill, congratulations.
Mitch44 |
02-13-2018, 08:58 AM | #16 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,158
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Nice job Bill. Brings us back to Docs missive it's not the programs top 2 but your top 2 that should be bet. I move horses up and down in tier level ranks all the time based not only on odds but several other factors that I've found work very well for me. Sometimes I get burned but like in this case the price justified the risk.
Tim
__________________
Trust but verify |
02-13-2018, 09:18 AM | #17 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Largo Fl.
Posts: 2,295
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Thank
You Mr. bill
bob |
02-13-2018, 11:06 AM | #18 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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I also move horses up & down depending on my analysis , not only of several screens but also proved techniques learned over many years from experience, record keeping & experimentation.
LT1 and I both would have had the # 3 as a contender and given it a pace line. Mitch44 |
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