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Old 08-14-2018, 11:24 AM   #1
Bill V.
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Interested to see Which line

Hello friends

Which line?

This is a horse running in the 7th and feature race today at Finger Lakes
My question, Which pace line to use? Line 1 is a "0" race
He ran 14 days ago. This is the 4th race in his form cycle.
The comment says "sluggish start, mild rail bid"
His readouts from line 1 show that line 1 is comparable to all his
other "+" races.

He uses his energy well, He is forwardly placed but uses his energy
just slightly to the early side of the early/late graph so runs good third fractions.

My question, since as far as I can tell, nothing has changed since the last race in his form cycle, except now he is going back to 6 furlongs.
Can I excuse line 1 and use line 2
My answer is, even though it is not a + race I can't get a read on where this horse is in form.
Here is what I do in these cases, I will use line 2 but if the horse ranks third
or worse on the final RX or BLBL readouts I will avoid betting him
because he probably needs a rest as he is going off form based on line 1

I ask this because I see this pattern often in races before a horse goes on layoffs
It's the old "pirco" saying " don't use a line that put the horse in the barn"

Good Skill

Bill

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Old 08-14-2018, 03:17 PM   #2
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I don't see any reason not to use the last line. I don't think it really matters. He took a step up in class and ran very evenly. It looks to me like 6f will help him.
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Old 08-14-2018, 03:49 PM   #3
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Horses

Thank you, Charlie

I see the "evenly" run race for line 2 and the rise in class.

I can see patterns on KGEN visually - This can also be seen in numbers
in RDSS on the POH/POR screen

Based on the last 4 lines It shows line 1 as starting slow and rushing up
then running out of gas and having a lower than normal FF

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Old 08-14-2018, 05:47 PM   #4
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It appears the slow start caused him to run much slower in the first fraction. You can infer this from the stronger HID and the weaker FX. Since he will probably face a slower pace today those numbers should return to normal for him.
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Old 08-14-2018, 09:18 PM   #5
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Bill, I have a problem with this horse. I have blacked out all the “claiming” races it has been in so the only thing left are the “allowance” races it has been in. I did that because today’s race is an “allowance” race. As you can see, three of its’ allowance races were “NW2L” condition. The remaining allowance race doesn’t show a condition. Today’s race is an “allowance” race. Ok. On this basis and this basis only, I would not forgive the last line. It is a “0” race in an allowance race, therefore, I would not give it a line. Now comes my dilemma.

As I already mentioned, today’s race is an “allowance” race, but today’s race has a “NW1X” condition. I’m sure you will remember that in this condition I like horses that have WINS, not the standard “1 for somethings” that have only beat maidens. So, on this basis I would forgive the last line and use line 2.
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Old 08-14-2018, 09:26 PM   #6
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Can you help me?

This is an awesome thread! I feel that there should be more threads where we can help one another with deciding what the "right" line is for a horse.

Case in point, I was trying to decide how to approach a certain horse at Mountaineer. It is a nondescript Maiden Special for 3YOs at 6 furlongs. The #6 Open Out shows a good race going a mile at the Mountain last out, then two back at today's distance at Suffolk (In a Maiden Claimer), it didn't show much. Three back is where the Perceptor took me, in today's class and distance over a "Good" Mountain strip. However, it's adjusted fractional and final times are extremely fast, and faster than what I anticipate today's race to play out.

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For me, this horse would not receive a line, as the last running line was a route, and the line two back is a "0" race with no qualifying moves in a race class that is lower than today's.
, However, it's APV/Class and CSR all indicate that this one can't be ignored. That said, I'd almost be inclined to use its start 5 back, the 3rd ranked perceptor total at Tampa going 7F, which shows a pace that is more realistic of what to expect.

Can you help me?

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Old 08-14-2018, 09:58 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeebs View Post
This is an awesome thread! I feel that there should be more threads where we can help one another with deciding what the "right" line is for a horse.

Case in point, I was trying to decide how to approach a certain horse at Mountaineer. It is a nondescript Maiden Special for 3YOs at 6 furlongs. The #6 Open Out shows a good race going a mile at the Mountain last out, then two back at today's distance at Suffolk (In a Maiden Claimer), it didn't show much. Three back is where the Perceptor took me, in today's class and distance over a "Good" Mountain strip. However, it's adjusted fractional and final times are extremely fast, and faster than what I anticipate today's race to play out.

Attachment 46925

Attachment 46926

The last running line was a route, and the line two back is a "0" race with no qualifying moves in a race class that is lower than today's. However, it's APV/Class and CSR all indicate that this one can't be ignored. That said, I'd almost be inclined to use its start 5 back, the 3rd ranked perceptor total at Tampa going 7F, which shows a pace that is more realistic of what to expect.

Can you help me?
Post editted by Ted ...

It is true I wouldn't use the last line as it is a route race.
However, as far as line 2 is concerned, one of the guidelines is to forgive a horses first race over a track at the current meet. This meets that requirement.
Therefore, line 3, 76 days ago at today's track, distance and class becomes the line to use.


Post editted by Ted ...
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Old 08-14-2018, 10:21 PM   #8
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Line 3, Line 5... in the end, it didn't matter. #6 still stood out and was an easy winner drawing clear late. $5.20 isn't much to sneeze about, and I get it if others passed for lack of value, or the pratfalls that this race presented (two FTS).

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Old 08-15-2018, 08:26 AM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeebs View Post
Line 3, Line 5... in the end, it didn't matter. #6 still stood out and was an easy winner drawing clear late. $5.20 isn't much to sneeze about, and I get it if others passed for lack of value, or the pratfalls that this race presented (two FTS).
Hello Tim

I just saw your post/question. I would use line 3 also but not line 5
I don't like going back that far for a line. especially a maiden

2 and 3-year-olds develop differently, This shows up during the
Kentucky Derby prep races. How many times have a horse who won a Derby prep race end up never doing much else down the road?
They say it because they just had developed faster than the other 2-3
year old but then the others caught up. It's best to use recency and form in maiden races.

Another thing today's race is restricted to 3-year-olds only
The Suff race is for 3 and up. Also, It looks like they shipped up
there for the bigger purse The purse in the MC was $25,000
It looks like MNR MS have a purse of $14000

I would excuse the Suff line because it was the first try at a new track
which is right out of the paceline manual.

GS
Bill
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Old 08-15-2018, 08:34 AM   #10
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Finger Lakes Race 7

The 7th race with horse 1 Dreams from my opening post, turned out to be an interesting result,

Here are the full PP's if you want to work it on your own

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