PRX 5th - 3/28/17

[Bill V.]

Top 5 TPR ( line 1 only)
4,1A,8,6,5

Fulcrum POR EPR 95.5 (46.4)

The field .

Horse 1 Sus. No form No recent + pacelines

Horse 1A Fulcrum horse Presser, Line 1 is a + paceline
7th race in current form cycle

Horse 2. Scr

Horse 3. Scr.

Horse 4. Presser Line 1 is a + pace lines at today's distance surface and class.
Just won at this level and does not raise in class ? 3rd race in current form cycle

Horse 5. Early presser will have trouble against todays POR
Moves up in class off a CL5 N1-6m win Line 1 This is the 4th race in current form cycle

Horse 6 Sust Line 1 is a + paceline against today's POR. Today starts a new form cycle
after a 5 week rest

Horse 7, No form. Drop from CL 16 will not be enough

Horse 8. Presser Lines 1 and 3, Both are curren + pacelines Today starts a new form cycle
I would lean toward line 3 because that also was after a similar layoff

Horse 9. Presser Line 2 Line 1 is a + paceline off a sow DTV and POR
Line 2 is a + paceline , slight negative dropper . In race 2 it was caimed for 16000
today its runs for 12.5 2nd race in current form cycle


My readouts

The 8 1A and 4 are my contenders

The 8 is my first bet
The 4 probably over the 1A I will wait for odds

[Jeebs]

With the scratch of #2 as our 4th tier BL/BL contender, we have two options: 1) Keep our original final runners (4-1-8 in tiered order) or 2) re-examine the race and see if we can promote #5, #6 or #9 to the BL/BL. Let's take a look:

Based on our line for #5, its %Med Run Style is Sustained. Looking at its previous wins, its typical %Med runs closer to Sustained Presser. Unless the surface plays slower than normal, I would estimate (remember, I don't have a model) that #5's energy expenditure is at a disadvantage over the sloppy track. 0/2 record on off-tracks (1 race was on a "Good" surface). HOWEVER, being a "counter energy" runner based off this line in today's matchup, I would possibly consider for perhaps an Exacta play. Looks like a weak Win candidate. I'll stick with my initial verdict.

We confirmed earlier that #9 is 0/8 over an off-track. That alone should be enough to disqualify. Hide.

That leaves us with #6, who had the 2nd lowest TE of those we selected lines for. 0/5 over the off-track is also a cause for pause. I would consider possibly upgrading the horse for our tiers if perhaps this was its first attempt over the slop or had a previous winning history over said surface. The stats don't lie. Hide.

We will keep the 4-1A-8 as our BL/BL and tote watch.

[Jeebs]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Horse 8. Presser Lines 1 and 3, Both are curren + pacelines Today starts a new form cycle
I would lean toward line 3 because that also was after a similar layoff

Line 3 was from that -40 DTV race day on 1/10. The TE PoR and PoH and TPR are levels it never saw prior to or after that race. If you land with L3, it puts #8 in rarified air, putting a 5.5 point edge over #4 off that line. That is a + line I can't trust for ratings.

That said, we basically landed on the same trio - in a different order. It's all about the tote odds at this point. This could very well be a race where there is simply no play due to odds, or it could be a race where you use the top horse as a Win bet, providing you get better odds on Exactas than betting straight Win.

Good luck.

[Mitch44]

contenders are 9-1A-4-8-6- And order also.
Mitch44

[The Pook]

I will be into this race today. Had it down to the same contenders. However the 1A has been beaten by the 4 twice and I see no reason for a reverse. VDC is a top corollary for this distance and class.

Leaves 8 and 4
@ 5/2 or greater.

Pook

[Lt1]

Interesting little race. I ended up with 1a-4-8-9 as my contenders.
1a line2
4 line1
8 line1
9 line 3
4 &8 have won on off tracks while the 1a has not tried it. As Tim pointed out the 9 is 0-8 on the off track but has hit the ex in 3 of those. So far 1a & 4 are 2-1 the 9 5/2 and the 8 6-1.
Tim G

[Bill V.]

Thank you Jeebs

I just saw my mistake , My original notes I did take both line 1 and 3
I went to line 3 without looking close enough at the DTV

Horse 8. Presser Lines 1 and 3, Both are curren + pacelines Today starts a new form cycle
I would lean toward line 3 because that also was after a similar layoff

I just wok up after my nap, It was a long night, at LAX waited 6 hours on stand by for my load to Oakland , only to find out the canceled at 5Am

So I had to head back to Ontario Ca ,

Anyway Im up and I see the entry 1-1A and 4 are being bet

Here is my revised look with line 1 and 3
still my top 3 are 8 1a 4

[Lt1]

Ok 2 mins to post based on odds I'll go 8-9

[Bill V.]

"the 4 horse"

Im alive 4 1A 8

8 got off to step slow

[Mitch44]

COMPLETED: 8b090-3976f
PRX
#5 $1 Exacta 1, WT, 4, 9 none $2.00
$0.00 - $2.00

COMPLETED: 33244-3499a
PRX
#5 $2 Exacta 4, WT, 1, 9 none $4.00
$19.80 + $15.80

COMPLETED: a7c8f-114ab
PRX

#5 $3 Exacta 9, WT, 1, 4 none $6.00
$0.00 - $6.00


COMPLETED: 73d0b-a40bf
PRX

#5
$0.50 Trifecta 1, 4, 9, WT, 1, 4, 9, WT, 6, 8 none $6.00
$15.95 + $9.95

Total (accepted wagers): $18.00 $35.75 + $17.75
Pending Wagers: $0.00
Mitch44