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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems |
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05-02-2012, 04:07 AM | #41 |
BetMix User
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 2,433
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The method I am using is not a Sartin method so please forgive my intrusion.
I frequently use Sartin software but I also use other methods that I feel would be more conducive to the situation at hand. When I'm looking for value and looking for a single winner in real time, this method fits the occasion and surpasses most software applications. I have narrowed down the field to three possible contenders.. Hansen..............(6) Bodemeister........(6) Creative Cause....(5) I will wait until a few minutes before post time and subtract the number in parenthesis from each of the listed horses odds ranking and look for the horse that has a 2+ point advantage. This will be my value play. Ex. If Hansen is the favorite (#1 in the odds ranking) his total would be (1-6 = -5) The method I am using is something that I have been using for years and is proprietary and for my use only. I use it for win betting only. I have found this method to be quite effective for value play in real time. Let's see how it turns out. Last edited by partsnut; 05-02-2012 at 04:19 AM. |
05-04-2012, 06:55 AM | #42 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 259
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Well here we are 1 day before the Derby and it is even more messy now than earlier in the week so I will go on record as saying the best horse or luckiest horse will win. I've talked with a clocker who is well respected that I've known for some time and he has said if he was to say which horse has impressed him the most this week it has been Daddy Nose Best. Has looked very professional all week and well seasoned, quite possibly peaking at the right time. Creative Cause has a minor foot injury that happened on the trip to Kentucky. He has missed some time on the track and his work was terrible so if he scratches it would not be a surprize. With half of the field of 20 and all with a chance, really the race to me offers no value. To those that just have to get in some action best of luck.
__________________
"Success consists of simply getting back up one more time than you fall" |
05-04-2012, 10:25 AM | #43 |
Grade 1 Aspiree
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 678
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My Take On The Race
Using RDSS 2.0 the results are shown below.
Ernie |
05-04-2012, 10:40 AM | #44 |
Grade 1 Aspiree
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 678
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My Take On The Race
With reference to my picks I used the last line for all contenders which falls under the standard Sartin concept ...go with the last line unless there is a reason not to. I also used the New Pace screen and looked at the Quirin Speed Points (QSP) and Composite Speed Ratings (CSR).
Three contenders have a QSP rating of 7 ....Gemologist, Bodemeister and Hansen. The top down CSR contenders are: Gemologist - 200, Alpha and Hansen - 199, Bodemeister - 198 and Dullahan - 197. Union rags is weaker with 194. Personally I like Bodemeister, Alpha and Gemologist. Good Luck with your picks Ernie |
05-05-2012, 12:19 AM | #45 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 695
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In the spirit of remembering Doc Sartin and to reiterate some of his work on the winning profiles of past Derby winners, I like to repost a link to a post by Stormbringer...
link from rdss post http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6794 Doc mentioned that Ferdinand was the only Derby winner to have a qualifying line from a mile prep race. Imho,,,I think Sea Hero should be in the same sentence. Ted Craven mentioned that times might be changing in terms of getting the Derby winners in the top two Hidden/Sustained...It might be that trainers today, are running less prep races than before....then again, many longstanding rules have been broken recently: no geldings(Funny Cide).....last race 5 weeks before Derby (Barbaro),,,,,less than 5 previous lifetime starts...(Big Brown).... Like Doc Sartin said, the Derby distance is an unique race where sustained energy dominates...our quest is to find the best sustained lines...Doc had lay out some fundamental guidelines...but I think it may be best, if we seek the power lines wherever it might be, outside of Sartin's parameters.... Good Skills to everyone.... |
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