Saratoga Factor Information thru 8/7

[Mitch44]

Busy day yesterday with 2 Dr. apt., haircut etc.
I've had a chance to look at your screen shot Bill.

This horse likes the lead, and is best suited to 6 F distances, has lost 3 races at 6.5 and 7F. Total Energy indicates his best dis. is 6F, also his SR are lower at longer distances. Additionally she lost 3 races at BEL., besides the longer distances at BEL, that track tends to be slower than AQU. Smart trainers and owners will ship horses to tracks that favor their running style and favor their best distances. Owner & trainer here operate on the cheap and rather than SAR I would ship her to a faster track like MTH or even SA. But that would be if they card 100,000 purse sprint races. I'm sure they do or G3. Plus at SAR like BEL she'll go against better horses than say at MTH, a weaker field for same money.

You can tell much more about this horse by its % M and computer generated Running Style. Probably an E with % Med of above 69% and perhaps a few at 70%. Also by her 3RD FR on FPS screen off her PP's. Looks to be a NTL.

Running style(ESP) computer generated, 3rd FR., Tot. Energy or TPR and Perceptor even can give you valuable information about a horse's preferred distances, surfaces etc.

Much of this also has to do with deceleration as to what a horses best distance is. The better the horse the longer it can carry its speed, this includes within distances such as 6F. Top 6F champions and BC winners have better 3rd FR or carry their speed after a very fast pace.

Many years back they carded a lot of 1/ 40 yards, 1/ 70 yard races etc. now there are few of them and more 1/16, more 6.5 and 7.5 races The point is a horse can win at a mile but not at 1/40 or 1/70. They get gutted at some point and run into a brick wall, may finish in the money but do not win. EVERY HORSE HAS A BEST DISTANCE. Be careful with 3 year old's, their stamina improves as the year progresses and their 3rd FR's get better along with their Tot Energy. As long as they remain sound.

This is why I prefer to stay with 1/2 F of todays distance if possible. Just like out of whack variants not always possible, but preferable. Like "The Hat" said; "You must use what's there. Sometimes you can even predict what a horse will do.

Much of this comes from analysis and not a black box approach and everything on auto-pilot. While I can get winners on the fly and do , my best results come from detailed analysis. Old Arkie Girl (Pat) once said I tear a race apart and that's true given time.

Bill you seem to have a long way, best of luck in the future.

Success is in the details,

Mitch44

[Bill Lyster]

Mitch,

I agree with all that you said, I am fully subscribed to your analytical approach.

Many thanks,

[Mitch44]

It's not unusual to find horses with mixed distances or surfaces. Many times their forced to run at inappropriate dis.'s and surfaces, even class for that matter because the way the Racing Secretary cards races. A sharp horse doesn't make any money sitting in the barn, while those lesser placings pay the bills.

With trainer fees today a horse needs to make about $24,000 a year just to break even. Many thousands do not and inept trainers and owners hinder their own ability to break even.

Place yourself as the trainer and determine why its in todays race based on the conditions of the race. Get off auto-pilot and take over the controls, be a pilot not a co-pilot.

Lastly, one is better off with quality handicapping rather than quantity.

If I can be of help Bill, contact me.

Mitch44

[buffaloxp]

in gulfstream park,trainer fees a $90 a day + vet bill, a horse needs make $35000 a yesr to break even, is a very tough game

raymond

[MJS6916]

Originally Posted by rmath

Bill, Your findings in post 6, that 84% of all winners have all four ratings ( VDC-CSR-PL & BPP ) are identical to mine and mine cover over 8,000 races in the past 7 years.
My latest group of 800+ races I used the settings of 100DTV and The programs setting of + or- 15.( I used these settings after talking to Mitch) and I found no change in the % of contenders that won.
The reason I use 100% is because the CSR is more accurate being a compounded rating taken from the last 4 races.
(In my testing I found that there was a 7% increase in the winners in the top 5 CSR using this setting.)
I applaud you for your research, I know how much time it takes.

Rmath

From all I've gathered now, this means the 100%DTV works better for CSR

but the 50%DTV produces a better VDC output?

If applying the entire DTV works for one (TS/CSR), why wouldn't it for the other (VDC)?
The results Richie found in CSR would tell me applying the full variant change versus the 50%
should put out more accurate readouts across the board; not just with TS or CSR.

Mike

[Mitch44]

WOW!!! Ray I new it was high but not that high. The costs have really gone up. Another reason why I guess we have all these short fields, most owners can't afford it as not many horses can win that each year.

Casino money has helped, but tracks keep folding. This is the last year for Arlington Park. CNL has problems with cash flow as Jocks aren't getting paid and are refusing to ride. I guess their hanging on by their nails.

Mitch44

[Mitch44]

Just for clarity my recommendations have always been to use 50% of variant. This also is a Sartin guideline. I've never said use 100%. Its a user prerogative and like Sartin said; "Given a chance to make an adjustment, users will take it."

As I said my setting are the recommended settings that come with the program. I don't use CSR within the program. Its a decent Factor for sure, I'm more of a precision type bettor I guess and make some of my own adjustments based on research.

Richie M was using 100% and -25 & +25 if I recall. He changed it to -15 & +15 but kept the use 100% of variant.

The Variant setting will effect the CSR rating and there is some difference if you used 100% or 50 %. All Speed Rating's apply some sort of Variant adjustment. It'll make a difference in a SR if you use 100% verses 50%. How much of a difference? That can't be said because it greatly depends on the Variant. If its -1 or +1 its nothing but if its -25 or +25 it can be very meaningful.

CSR is also effected by which tracks you play and the season or time of year you play. Winter tracks have higher Variants because the weather frequently changes more in winter. There even was a big difference in Poly tracks at one time because they were all made with difference materials. Many have gone by the wayside and those in use today generally are made of the same stuff. I forget which one, but its fibers were greatly effected by the summer heat.

For those using the CSR, I would tell you to keep using it. Unless you can come up with something better. I also don't particularity like the way its weighted. I.e. Over weighted for last race, I view this like using the last line always for a pace line. There are many reasons not to use that line.

Mike I hope your well. To answer your question, with a Pace rating everything is dependent on one line. The CSR uses 4 lines and will tend to smooth out or nullify one bad line. Make a mistake with a paceline and all your readouts are skewed, one bad line of 4 in CSR gets you that 84% winners in top four. Big note: with the last line so heavenly weighted in CSR it also distorts the rating. In other words if the last line was always correct you would get more than that 84%.

I would never recommend users not use the CSR, for the overwhelming majority its a step up. But not for me. I don't use or do many things, and if I listed them all you would wonder how I get the results that I do. Some things like a model, track profile or last line are only important if you believe they are.

Mitch44

[MJS6916]

Originally Posted by Mitch44

For those using the CSR, I would tell you to keep using it. Unless you can come up with something better. I also don't particularity like the way its weighted. I.e. Over weighted for last race, I view this like using the last line always for a pace line. There are many reasons not to use that line.

Mike I hope your well. To answer your question, [B]with a Pace rating everything is dependent on one line. The CSR uses 4 lines and will tend to smooth out or nullify one bad line.

Mitch44

Thank you Mitch44, I’m doing very well.

Mike

[MJS6916]

Mitch44,

I hope you’re doing well too.
(should have said that before)

Mike

[Mitch44]

I am Mike,thanks.

Mitch44