run styles

[DontSayDont]

I am debating whether or not I want to go along with Bris's running styles. If anyone is hdcping FL today, I would appreciate it if you would supply your own run styles to the horses in the second race. Bris has 5 'E' horses, 1 'EP' and 2 "P'. I have 1 E/EP, 4 EP, 1 P and 2 NF. To me this could make a big difference on how the race "might" be run.

Thanks in advance.

[Bill V.]

Hi DSD

I have highlighted the far right last two columns
These are the RDSS ESP and my choice of visual running styles

[atkinsrr]

To don't say don't: Bris Running styles are usually close to what a particular horse may be in todays match up...but RDSS in my opinion is just a little more accurate. I say this because all of the terminology that you see on Bris from their Multi Caps program such as E EP SP S were all copied from the Sartin Methodology years ago and they will label a horse (for example) an e/p..and the horse will always be an e/p...but maybe the horse by RDSS standards in todays match up may not be an e/p...he or she may be a "p" depending on what type of runners are in todays race....at least this is how I see it...comments please....

[Because I Can Jim]

DSD,
I know nothing about Bris.
I don't use the running styles RDSS provided right out of the box. Just like Bill, I make a choice of visual running styles and go with that because that comes from the computer I carry around with me all day - the space between my ears - which allows for mental adjustments where as the plastic boxes are rule written and do not change.
Which brings me to what atkinsrr said about "maybe the horse by RDSS standards in todays match up may not be an e/p...he or she may be a "p" depending on what type of runners are in todays race". Even though visually I assign a horse a running style, I am not locked into it like the plastic box. If my analysis of the race calls for it, I will mentally adjust the running style. For example, just like atkinsrr said, an EP will most likely be an EP if there is only one or two Es in the race, but, what if there are a three or four need to lead Es in the race? Will the EP remain an EP? Most likely not. It will either get pushed back a little to what would visually look like a P or it will just plain flat out quit and the what would it look like on a past performance chart?.

DSD, it does make a big difference in how the race might be run. Always, go with what "YOU" know or feel.

Jim

[Ted Craven]

I'm having fun checking the site and working races on my tablet as I (slowly) hop from airport to airport on my way home ...

Here's my take on Running Styles:



The #1, #2 and #7 are all Earlies (they need the lead or will fight for the lead to win their race - they don't pass horses, so they're Early (to me). They're also all too slow, so they cannot win - they cannot even come close or hinder the valid Early (Fighter) - the #3.

The race is between the #3 and the #4 (again).

IMO .

cheers, and good luck!

Ted

[Bill V.]

Hey Ted
Did you include the 5 in your exacta dutch ?

$42.00 to place
may the 4 horse be with you !

[atkinsrr]

right Jim...you always go with what "you" know or feel...and that gets back to one of the most important things that "Doc" always told us....KEEP RECORDS and the more races that you work the better you get...none of us do exactly the same thing all the time...we are all different in our ways of thinks...but in the end it's the hard work and record keeping that makes us profitable...along with desire, determination, focus and all of that mental stuff............

[Mark]

The is a huge difference between Visual Running Styles and the Energy Distribution of ESP. The former is best assigned by visual inspection of a horses past performances.
RDSS2 makes an attempt to assign these via a computer based algorithm and it doesn't always get it right. So you must review each horse's PPs and confirm or reassign
the correct Running Style. These are as follows:
F - NTL Early horse that will not run if it doesn't get the lead. Usually this means gate to wire.
E - An Early horse that will generally run in the lead by the 1st call. It wants the lead and if it breaks poorly will make every effort to get the lead which
will often cost it energy causing it to fade in the stretch.
EP - I subscribe to Jim Bradshaw's definition within a 1/2 length of the lead at the first call. Doesn't necessarily want the lead but wants to run "laying on the Leader".
P - We generally think of a Presser that a horse that lays within a couple lengths of the leader, however there a cases when a couple horses hook up on the lead and put 3, 4 or 5 lengths on a pressing horse. More commonly the Presser will lay 2nd to 4th and anywhere between 1 and 3 lengths behind the leader. I will always look at the Velocity - POH screen to verify as a Presser has to have a substantial second fraction over the E horses to make up the ground loss in the first fraction.
SP - These horses in my view, lay 5th, 6th or 7th and to be competitive in the race must make a strong move in the second fraction. If they don't make up the early ground loss by the 2nd call their moderate final fraction will not carry them by the tiring speed and pressers. I differentiate between a SP and an S by that 2nd fraction move.
S - These horses run generally in the last 3 positions in a field at the first call and have modest fractions until the final fraction when their velocity will be higher than the other
running styles because they never went very fast and they decelerate more slowly.
ESP on the other hand is determined by dividing the 2nd call velocity by the final fraction. The higher this ratio the more sustained the paceline is.
Here is a Velocity _ POH screenshot that shows the ESP and Running Style side by side:

[DontSayDont]

Great replies everyone. Certainly gave me something more to think about. As for the race itself at the first 2 calls from Results Chart: Horse #, Beaten Lengths 1^st Call, RS at 1^st Call (in this race), Beaten Lengths 2^nd Call and RS at 2^nd Call. +sign = ½ +hd

1^st Call RS............... 2^nd Call RS
H1: 1/Hd E ..............1/ ½ ..E
H2: 2/Hd E ..............3/ ½+ E
H3: 3/ Nk E............. 2/ ½+ E
H4: 4/2... EP............ 4/ 2 ½ EP...(Winner)
H5: 7/4 ½ P .............6/ 4 ½ P......(Place)
H6: 5/2 ¾ EP/P....... 5/ 4 ....P......(Show)
H7: 6/3 ¾ P/S......... 7/ 5 ½ P/S
H8: 8/8 ½ S............. 8/ 8 ½ S

What I haven’t figured out is how far back to go to get the RS. In this race the #2 horse has had 4 races this year and has broken last or 2^nd to last in each race and finished those races the same way. True last year she shows a race won wire to wire and 3 other races where she was close up at first and/or 2^nd call.

She does show improvement in her speed rating in the 4 races this year from: 63-68-68-75. Is that reason enough to go back to last year for her RS? Am I incorrect in giving her a NF? The reason this becomes important as she broke well and was part of the reason for the pace setter’s (#1, #2 and #3) demise by the time they had gone ½ mile. Pace in this race was 22.44 and 46.70. The pars I have are 22.72 and 46.77. Taken from times run this year.

Thanks again for all the replies.

[Mark]

Running Style is determined by the position of the horse at the first call in its wins and very close finishes. It can be speed based but generally a horse run over his head will try initially but if the pace is too fast it will give up and fade. LOOK AT THE HORSE'S POSITION AND BEATEN LENGTHS IN HIS PAST PERFORMANCE RACES AT THE 1ST CALL OF ITS RACES THAT IT WON OR RAN VERY, VERY CLOSE,
THAT IS HIS RUNNING STYLE!!
Model the pacelines you pick, that is what will be predictive. The Sartin group found that Result chart modeling was useless. It is after the fact.
You need to delve into the Sartin library and read for about a month before you waste a bunch of time and money on things that have been disproven 30 years ago.
You have to establish a information base of good reliable information and most everything from Doc Sartin and Jim Bradshaw is honest and well meant.

GOOD LUCK