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08-12-2023, 09:57 AM | #1 |
AlwNW1X
Join Date: May 2021
Posts: 15
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Field Size
What are folks' thoughts on a minimum field size before you'll wager?
I see many differing opinions on the topic and I go back and forth myself. There's roi vs. profit to consider. I.e. larger fields likely have a higher roi, but if there's a positive return in 6 or 7 horse races, then the overall profit could be higher (given more opportunity). For example: I'm following Woodbine, Saratoga, and Colonial (my home track) right now. Sar and Cl are showing solid profits and in any field 6+ runners (though 8+ is the highest roi), while Woodbine shows a loss for any field less than 8. At woodbine I'm showing a solid positive return at 8+ runners. |
08-12-2023, 01:24 PM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,162
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I have no problem playing 6 horse fields if the prices are right on the horses I like. Just hit
a $75 ex at TDN[R2] in a 6 horse field[see races of interest]. The winner pd $10.00 and the place horse $11.80]. Your record keeping answers your question on what to play where. Tim
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08-12-2023, 05:27 PM | #3 |
Grade 2
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: Downers Grove, Il
Posts: 78
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Yes I agree with the Wizard on this one.
Don |
08-12-2023, 07:09 PM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,162
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Just to add a little more on the subject there were 2 other ok exactas in 6 horse fields at TDN today. The race 6 ex pd $256.40[I didn't get this one].and R8 43.20[did get this one. The r6-r8 P3 had field sizes of 6,7,6 pd $126.80. So folks it can be done but you must pick your spots. Look for fields where you feel the fav is weak or down right false and go for it.
Tim
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08-14-2023, 07:14 PM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,162
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If anyone has a chance check out the payoffs at FL today[8-14] where none of the races had more then 6 horses. I posted 2 winning races in the races of interest section.
Tim
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08-15-2023, 11:36 AM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 606
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For those who believe that betting should be based on large sample sizes, math, and probabilities, I would suggest the following decision rules for field size:
1. Pass on vertical bets when field size is 7 or fewer. With 42 or fewer exacta combinations, the chance of finding +EV bets is substantially reduced. 2. Pass on vertical bets when you cannot toss AT LEAST 20% of the runners, preferable 30%. Good luck. |
08-16-2023, 09:12 AM | #7 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada
Posts: 2,539
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There are no rules.
At Finger Lakes yesterday (Aug 15th) in the third race an opportunity presented itself with a lone early. The 2 horse had only three opponents. He was the longest shot. He led all the way and held on for $10.80. Easier for him than having seven opponents.
Pook |
08-16-2023, 11:02 AM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,162
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Nice work Mike. The race 2-3 DD came back $36.20 & the r-3-4 dd came back $43.60. Pretty good for fields of 6 ,4 & 6 horses.
Tim
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08-16-2023, 04:10 PM | #9 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 3,489
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There was a 4 horse race at Saratoga today that paid $36.00 on a $1 exacta with the odds on favorite running last. No pace meltdown, traffic, lost jockey or anything odd. I didn't have a data file, so I don't know if this was pickable, but it goes to show that field size doesn't always prevent an overlay.
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08-18-2023, 04:04 PM | #10 |
turf historian
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 6,455
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Helps the price to spraed the wagers around, but 6 is the least I would back, BUT then at some tracks (Mahoning Downs) that works well.
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