|
Google Site Search | Get RDSS | Sartin Library | RDSS FAQs | Conduct | Register | Site FAQ | Members List | Today's Posts | Search |
General Discussion General Horse Racing Discussion |
|
Thread Tools | Display Modes |
06-18-2016, 12:51 PM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 154
|
Good source for Woodbine info
If you are not aware of it, the Woodbine web site has a daily feature called "Jim Bannon Journals". Bannon is a public handicapper and I have no idea if his picks are any better or worse than any other public handicapper.
But his daily journal also includes a short write up on each horse running that day. This will often provide more detail about the horse and its connections than can be found in the PPs, or point out details that may not jump out from the PPs. Go to the web site at http://www.woodbineentertainment.com...s/Default.aspx In the banner across the top, click on "BETTING", then on "Handicapping Resources" and then on "Jim Bannon Journals" |
06-19-2016, 10:43 AM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: CAMBRIDGE,MA
Posts: 1,035
|
Mike, Thanks for the information!
Mike |
06-19-2016, 11:33 PM | #3 |
AlwNW3X
Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: The Confederacy, alas, but temporarily.
Posts: 34
|
I've known about the Bannon Journals for a while now, and its mention gets me thinking about my experience today with Gulfstream and Woodbine.
... Several times during the card at WO today I found that the RDSS conclusions the software and I came to were right, based on the available evidence and the algorithms RDSS computes. What the past performances, algorithms and educated intuition CAN'T tell you is whether the 20-1 longshot with no chance on paper makes it into the Place, busting up your exacta, or the horse wins and demolishes your 2 horse win strategy by winning and thereby causing your 3rd choice, which you didn't bet, into the second hole! I found this happening several times today and I admit it was frustrating. I spend a lot of time on each card, cross-checking my own conclusions and those of RDSS by also employing the MPH Pro service from Trackmaster. Generally my paceline selection (plural for MPH Pro) is 85% or more accurate the first time. The other thing RDSS can't tell you is what transpired so as to render one of those miraculous reversals of form. You know, the 40% trainer using only hay, oats and water... One of the most unsettling (read: pissed me off) events of the day was the 10th at Woodbine. My personal betting matrix included the 8, 7 and 2 (in that order) partly due to their deceleration factors as indicated in the BL/BL screen. So when the 7, Via Nevada, won, and paid $43.60 keying a decent P4 payoff, I had committed a cardinal sin in the setup to that wager. I trusted a tout. An online tout I respect presented a reasonable P4 sequence. I played it with only a cursory check of his selections. Wrong move. He omitted the 2 from his 5 horses (3,4,5,6,10) in the 10th. Based on my choice of pacelines, RDSS rated the 4,5,6&10 as non-contenders. Oh hell. The tout didn't know that, but I did, and I didn't check with RDSS or really look at the 10th until after my ticket was in and it was over. It was only a $12 lesson, but the worst part was abandoning my studied and methodical modus operandi. I felt like an idiot. So my lesson learned was to eschew trusting touts - or taking flyers, which is what I did - without analyzing it on my own. I missed a very modest $234 twenty cent payout by not doing the work and trusting myself as well as the software with which I am getting more comfortable. In a postscript, I haven't had much success with CBY. Has anyone here? I'd like to support their lower vig, but not at the expense of the bankroll without at least occasional replenishments...I'll stick to GP, WO and maybe AP. And then SAR in a couple weeks. Relevant screen shots attached. As for the pacelines of this particular race, they are RDSS' Best Perceptor selections unaltered by me. Kevin |
06-21-2016, 03:02 PM | #4 |
RDSS Student
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Grapevine, Texas
Posts: 51
|
Hi Kevin, thanks for your feedback on MPH Pro on this and prior threads. I couldn't help but notice #2 Viva Nevada was the leading Turn Time horse, a concept featured in Brohamer's book. And a fine bet considering the odds.
Brian |
06-21-2016, 03:44 PM | #5 |
AlwNW3X
Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: The Confederacy, alas, but temporarily.
Posts: 34
|
Brian, I felt like a complete idiot for my myopia! I will pay closer attention to everything, and never, never, never again go with a tout as a flyer. "Trust, but verify."
Kevin |
06-21-2016, 05:27 PM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Woodbine
Posts: 761
|
The "Turn TIme" readout is really only effective in 5.5F races, or around that distance, i would tread lightly with other distances using that readout. FTL had a good thread on the topic, you'll have to dig it up.
|
06-21-2016, 06:30 PM | #7 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Woodbine
Posts: 761
|
Quote:
The 2 Viva Nevada had everything go for it, she was the top “Total Energy” horse in the field, had good early works followed up consistent conditioning, dropping in class, she’s a decliner who runs peak efforts off the shelf, best late horse in the field, 3rd in class. When you have a horse that has the best “Late Energy” rating, the best “Deceleration” rating accompanied with the best “Hidden Energy” rating accompanied with the best “True Speed” rating, in a route race, YOU POUNCE ON SAID HORSE. When looking at Maiden races at Woodbine, there is one angle that you cannot ignore. Look for horses that have come within 1 length or less of winning in their last 10 lines, you will be amazed at how many of those horses go onto win. Go through every horse in the field and mark down the ones that have come within exactly one length or less of winning down on a piece of paper, if any of those horses are a top “Total Energy “ horse, and/or the horse is a clocker today, you have a likely contender. Looking at race 10 last Sunday there was one horse in the field that fit that billing..... |
|
06-21-2016, 06:55 PM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: the great race place
Posts: 205
|
Are you down with OPP?
No! not referring to the 80's rap group Naughty by Nature. The OPP I'm referring to is " OTHER PEOPLE PICKS"
All of us at pace and cap work to dang hard at this game to wager one red penny on some tout selections. We have at our disposal the best handicapping program out on the market to date! Take full advantage of it guy's and Gal's, Know i do!! Success to all, Paul Link Los Angeles, CA |
06-21-2016, 07:41 PM | #9 |
AlwNW3X
Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: The Confederacy, alas, but temporarily.
Posts: 34
|
Hoof, thank you very much for the legit "tip". I will review tomorrow's card! I also found this: http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8383 !
|
06-21-2016, 08:50 PM | #10 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Woodbine
Posts: 761
|
Quote:
Post #3 from FTL sums it up, thanks for posting the link, i am lazy that way. Tomorrow's card..... June 22 Race 4 and 8 are Maiden Races, here are the angle plays i was referring to. R4 - 4-6-8-9 R8 - 4-6 |
|
|
|
Similar Threads | ||||
Thread | Thread Starter | Forum | Replies | Last Post |
pedigree info | tleusin | Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum | 1 | 03-12-2010 08:49 PM |
Test - if paceline is too good to be true | Bill Lyster | RDSS | 3 | 05-29-2009 10:27 AM |
Combining Beyer Info and Pace Info | Bill Lyster | General Discussion | 5 | 04-22-2009 07:33 PM |
Am I good enough ? | Bill V. | Classic Sartin Programs - Support, Discussion | 10 | 03-27-2009 07:01 AM |