Saturday 3/23 -GG 5th

[vderdak]

#4 horse to win

[PeteC]

Vderdak and Lone Speed come through by calling the 4 horse to win.

The 5 was in perfect position but (as Capcondo mentioned) it does not like to pass horse very often. The 7 never got into it.

Hey Lone Speed, calling a winner in a race that "is not your cup of tea" eh?

Thanks to all for participating! Let's keep putting up races of all shapes and sizes guys...

[vderdak]

Thanks Pete!!!!!!!

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by sureshotlink

Let's hope the betting public does not look to far past the 7 horse last 2 routes. The pace line I am using to rate this horse is line 5.With the first 2 lines being non-comparable this is acceptable per the pace line manual. When extracting the 3rd fraction from the last route line its apparent the 7 horse is still in form and should run back to one of its better efforts.

My play will be the 7 horse with 4,5 underneath.

Success to all!

Paul
Los Angeles,ca

I can't agree with line 5 being acceptable per the Paceline Manual.
I don't recall seeing anywhere in the Paceline Manual where it says to use any line you want because the last two lines don't qualify on distance and surface. What the Paceline Manual does say is, if the last two lines do not qualify on distance and surface, go back ONE LINE to line 3. If that line qualifies then THAT IS YOUR LINE. Nowhere in the Paceline Manual does it say to bypass two good lines (or even one good line) in favor of some other line further down the PP's.

Lines 3, 4 and 5 are all at the same or similar distance and are all on the same surface at the same track.
If line 5 were such a predictive line, then why did this horse not win in line 4 or 3?
I think line 3 would be the more appropriate line to use.

[For The Lead]

I made a thread on this race in the teaching section. For those of you who are interested, here is a link to that thread. http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9065

[lone speed]

Originally Posted by For The Lead

I can't agree with line 5 being acceptable per the Paceline Manual.
I don't recall seeing anywhere in the Paceline Manual where it says to use any line you want because the last two lines don't qualify on distance and surface. What the Paceline Manual does say is, if the last two lines do not qualify on distance and surface, go back ONE LINE to line 3. If that line qualifies then THAT IS YOUR LINE. Nowhere in the Paceline Manual does it say to bypass two good lines (or even one good line) in favor of some other line further down the PP's.

Lines 3, 4 and 5 are all at the same or similar distance and are all on the same surface at the same track.
If line 5 were such a predictive line, then why did this horse not win in line 4 or 3?
I think line 3 would be the more appropriate line to use.

FTL....

Many good points....Thanks for your teaching....


Pete...

Thanks for the race....the only reason that I made that comment about these kind of races is that these are some of the lowest claiming races...I have no problems looking at these types, it's not my preference.....

The saving grace is that the purse in this race is double the claiming value of the horses entered.....The claiming price of $4,000 with a total purse value of $8,400...At these claiming levels, some trainers will use the races as a workout to keep their horses fit versus working in the morning...

Let's take a look at #4 Aiming Fluid..It's last published workout was on Feb.3 at 4F in 48.6




Regarding the #7 horse, Bill V. inquired about some post race comments:so I will volunteer my humble opinion on my analysis on the #7 horse..



This horse was coming off two route races and slower pace fractions than the pace that it will face today....more than likely, it will flatten out in the stretch running faster fractions than what it was ,"most recently" accustomed to.....In his last paceline, it chased fractions of 25.2 50 and 1:15.1 , it literally cantered in the early pace when you look at the raw fractions before fading in the end of the race...

Today's race is a sprint race at 5.5 furlongs....think as a trainer...is this how you want to bring your horse up to today's race?.....maybe if the route fractions were like 22.3 46.1 and 111 and this horse raced up close to those fractions...otherwise, this horse is considered "Shortening Up" in distance where it will more than likely face faster internal fractions and force to use up early energy and lose late energy in the late part of the race......This one in today's matchup has to run faster than 25.2 (it will face an expected pace of 22.4) for the first fraction and faster than 50 (it will face and expected 2nd call fraction of 46.1) for the 2nd fraction...

Another viewpoint: just focusing on numbers (Beyer's/Trackmaster's)....From a peak of 81 from paceline #5, it just keeps tailing downward to its last paceline of 67...this horse is declining and probably needs a break from racing....

Focusing on energy numbers or Phase 1 numbers...in the last 3 or 4 races, it keeps declining...



Many thanks again.....to everyone who posted their comments and picks.....

Good skills

[PeteC]

Thanks LS and FTL. Combining your responses was very insightful to me. In this race, my eye focused initially on the Aim, Swiss and Our tandem in which Aim and Swiss dueled before Our passed them at the finish. My first instinct was to look for a tandem repeat today.

FTL's response corrected my assumption that the 3 would add even more pace pressure today insuring an OTE winner.

LS's response also helped me see how Aim might reverse the tandem today (training/racing patterns on Aim and the 7 horse). Capcondo's comment about Our not liking to pass horse also rang in my ear (along with its 1-16, now make that 17 record, with 6 second-places, which I know FTL noticed). In addition, your thoughts on the 7 horse make a lot of sense.

Thanks guys. With all the different perspectives it's hard not to benefit.