How best to match just using raw/original times and the entire past performances?

[mufasa]

Originally Posted by RichieP

OK 1st call lead time of the #2 ?

I would think 23 and 1 or 2 5ths if made to go faster he is really dead meat.

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by mufasa

I would think 23 and 1 or 2 5ths if made to go faster he is really dead meat.

ok now the 1st call (4f) lead time?
The screens I show do NOT show the 1st fraction positions Robert. They show 1st call (4f) positions.

ok

[mufasa]

Originally Posted by RichieP

ok now the 1st call (4f) lead time?
The screens I show do NOT show the 1st fraction positions Robert. They show 1st call (4f) positions.

ok

Rich, I am getting the times from your page 1 entrie data for this race. They are showing for both the #2 and 7 horses the 23 + call times. Anyway since this is a route I think the #2 horse would like to do the route first call in 48 but the # 7 horse is going to force a 47 and 2 or 3. The # 8 horse can even get into the mix to force this 47 and change time as well.

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by mufasa

Rich, I am getting the times from your page 1 entrie data for this race. They are showing for both the #2 and 7 horses the 23 + call times. Anyway since this is a route I think the #2 horse would like to do the route first call in 48 but the # 7 horse is going to force a 47 and 2 or 3. The # 8 horse can even get into the mix to force this 47 and change time as well.

Perfect.
let's use your 47.2-47.3

Line 3 looks right for projecting 1st fraction and 1st call. last 2 are off tracks. line 3 lines up nice. Would you agree?

23.3 - 47.5 - these are tenths shown

ok here is screenshot of the 2 and our initial projections marked up on top.

If you are good to go now who is the 2nd call (6f) leader and what time?

[mufasa]

Originally Posted by RichieP

Perfect.
let's use your 47.2-47.3

Line 3 looks right for projecting 1st fraction and 1st call. last 2 are off tracks. line 3 lines up nice. Would you agree?

23.3 - 47.5 - these are tenths shown

ok here is screenshot of the 2 and our initial projections marked up on top.

If you are good to go now who is the 2nd call (6f) leader and what time?

Yes Rich as to time I am working with 5ths and convert the RDSS data as I analyze it.

I always thought that this race would have a projected pace of 1:13 and about 1 or 2 5ths because the #7 horse was going to make it so. The 1:13 and change definetly hurts the #2 leader and could IMO hurt the #7 in the 3rd fraction because in his last race a 1:13 and 3 was a problem. I am thinking and hopefully correct that a somewhat duel between the #2 horse and the #7 horse to the 1/2 mile call will produce the lower 1:13 figure. And yes Rich I would say that the #2's 3 PL is the line to us to figure if he can go all the way.

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by mufasa

I always thought that this race would have a projected pace of 1:13 and about 1 or 2 5ths because the #7 horse was going to make it so.

ok so if a different horse has now been projected leading at the 2nd call HOW is the race going to be WON.

Early
Other than Early

??

screen shot of the #7 who you project to lead at 2nd call. Let's use his last race 2nd call time of 113.7 (113.3 in fifths) as the time though I see your point about the horses pushing one another faster.

"Mu" I will be back after supper amigo. Races are calling man.

[mufasa]

Originally Posted by RichieP

ok so if a different horse has now been projected leading at the 2nd call HOW is the race going to be WON.

Early
Other than Early

??

screen shot of the #7 who you project to lead at 2nd call. Let's use his last race 2nd call time of 113.7 (113.3 in fifths) as the time though I see your point about the horses pushing one another faster.

"Mu" I will be back after supper amigo. Races are calling man.

OK Rich, I am working or should I say suppose to be working.

[mufasa]

Originally Posted by mufasa

OK Rich, I am working or should I say suppose to be working.

[quote]ok so if a different horse has now been projected leading at the 2nd call HOW is the race going to be WON.

Early
Other than Early

??

screen shot of the #7 who you project to lead at 2nd call. Let's use his last race 2nd call time of 113.7 (113.3 in fifths) as the time though I see your point about the horses pushing one another faster. [end of quote]

Rich, if the designated early horse can not go all the way then it is an OTE race.

I am thinking the #7 horse takes the lead away from the #2 horse by the half mile in something like 1:13.2/5ths which might be a little too fast but he is definitely not letting the #2 horse run the half in 1:14 and change. This is my basis for wining this race with now the # 10 horse because again the #7 horse has run too fast to put away the #2 horse. Even if the #7 horse were to run the half in his more seemingly comfortable 1:13 and 3/5ths the #10 horse with his solid power line and power move in his 5th pace line should blow right by him.

The #10 horse in his 5PL back ran a nice race against a 1:11.3/5ths with a first call time in the 8.3F race of 46.0 so he is a P that can stay comfortably close at today’s project numbers and pounce at the half to win the race. In addition as support the #10 horse in his 7th race back in the slop showed that he can stay close at today’s projected pace.

The only question that could remain for me would be conditioning, and forgive me for bringing this up, but his 2nd race back IMF and his last race of running within 3.5L to the half suggest some good form. I would consider the #10 horse without this form consideration but since it is there why not mention it.

Thanks,

Robert

[RichieP]

ok so we have the 2 horse setting the pace at first call and the 7 taking over by the 2nd call. So with different horses we know that THIS race will be WON by the FASTEST horse with an other than early style.

Here are Robert's POWER LINES for ALL the horses using the last line on the 7.

[RichieP]

Now watch this man. Since the red highlights FASTER pace of race then projected KEEP as final mix those competitive against the red.

Let's do the field FAST.

1- out
2- out
3- red but NOT competitve - out
4- red but NOT competitve - out
6- red and competitve - IN
7- out
8- out
9- red but NOT competitive - out
10- red and competitve - IN
11- red and competitve - IN

Here is what is left. The final question is simply this:

Who is the FASTEST horse and will be closest to the lead horse?