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RDSS Racing Decision Support System – The Modern Sartin Methodology |
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08-14-2008, 11:39 PM | #1 |
Avid Student
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Lone Star Park (50 miles)
Posts: 50
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What do you consider "comparable" class?
When today's class is say 76, how low would you go to consider comparable? Or is it better to consider looking at the 2'nd call pace?
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Good luck and good handicapping! |
08-15-2008, 05:42 AM | #2 | |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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a few things I look at
Quote:
I use the race class rating, but I don't have a rule like that Every race I have to consider a few things I don't have any limit as a rule I use them to rate each horse Basically I'm looking at the best of the last three or 4 races. I am looking for the highest adjusted speed rating near or over 80 And against the highest race class the variables are The race class number is not a Sartin Methodology number So I just use it as a equalizer the apv and CR numbers a a part of my thinking Lets say the race class is 76 Having looked at these numbers for a few years, I know this is a so-so race probably a mid range claiming race The horse I am looking at has a 80 speed rating in a 78 race class The race before it had a 78 speed rating same distance and track but it was a maiden win and the race class was 72 Now here is the thing The horse is in the top 5 APV and top 3 Class ratings Its APV was 101.1 So in this race I want the other horse to be near the 76 Race Class from TM Ok now the next horse has two lines line 1 has a 75 Speed rating It was this horses maiden claimer win The race class was a 67 The other 2 lines ,as well as the other races in the horses past performance all had upper 60's speed ratings while running in 65 -68 race ratings This horse had a very low APV and Class rating like 60.6 The thing I'm looking at here is I'm not going to go very deep for a pace line long post short I try to use the RC number to judge each horse I find that if the speed rating is near or over 80 or very close to the fastest horses in the race I try to use lines from races close to the race rating from TM Thanks GS Bill |
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08-15-2008, 08:54 AM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 300
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bill post
When Bill speaks all should listen, Bill and froggy have helped me the most with the method he is telling you about. It works! IT WORKS VERY WELL.
Thanks Bill the storm |
08-15-2008, 10:24 AM | #4 |
Avid Student
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Lone Star Park (50 miles)
Posts: 50
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Bill - Are you saying that for higher classed horses you will go a little deeper for pacelines? Is that Sartin or did you pick that up through expierence?
Here is one that gets me I notice using best of last three that I almost always have some high odds horse in top 3 while one of fav's out of top 5. Should this concern me or possibly be more demanding of these horses. I have just started charting or modeling my tracks (very time consuming). But I have alrady noticed a few things but still too early. In the last 2 days have hit 12 of 36 tri's on (play money). Hope it continues. Always read all your post. Thanks for your help and work at this site.
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Good luck and good handicapping! |
08-15-2008, 12:28 PM | #5 |
Avid Student
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Lone Star Park (50 miles)
Posts: 50
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Here is an example
Which paceline in following example and why?
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08-15-2008, 01:16 PM | #6 | |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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me
Quote:
Thank you very much for asking me I kind of do favor the top apv and CR horse I will go back a little bit and help these horses I picked this up reading about apv and class from the follow ups -early ones! I kind of fell into looking at races this way.. I am very honored that I can look at any race from any track thanks to a gift from Trackmaster Every time I see races posted here on pace and cap I almost always do the race myself or at least look at the BLBL readouts and line selection from the poster When folks post screens from Rdss I easily can see where the Red yellow and green box horses are. After time I noticed that the horse with these colors were doing well . So I started to focus on them when I did races If i can just add, The numbers should mean something to you not what they mean to me... anyway in the above example Everything depends on the APV and CR of this horse and the other horses in the race I like the last line 77 speed rating I see the 90 race class for the second line \ Now I see the 82 from line 3 at Lonestar This is where the class and apv would help me If this was what I say to myself a good strong horse I would use line 3 If the readouts showed this horse to be average or poor I would use line 1 What reasons do I have to help or take the last race as the line for your example horse This is what I try to do Thank you so much for your interest GS Bill Last edited by Bill V.; 08-15-2008 at 01:25 PM. Reason: posting this while driving and worried about getting everything done so I can get to Saratoga Many mistakes |
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08-15-2008, 01:34 PM | #7 |
Avid Student
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Lone Star Park (50 miles)
Posts: 50
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So you are not strict with best of last 3. Very interesting! I have read most of FU's starting with about 70, would I be well served by reading earlier, also. What other reading would you suggest - read Brohamer and Pizzola.
Here is the race showed earlier:
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Good luck and good handicapping! |
08-15-2008, 01:54 PM | #8 | |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Would you help me
Quote:
I have said it before but it is tattooed on my heart but i got everything from learning and listening to people who worked to make me a winner I have a desire to share that with the next guy thats who I am GS Bill |
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