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05-03-2006, 01:53 AM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 467
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Question About Pace Designation
Here is a horse who ran in race #10 at Hollywood on 4/30.
I have four screen shots. In the first screen you can see he won his last three races. In the second screen he appears to be a sustained horse, and at the very best a presser. In the fourth screen under esp his designation is early. I guess I don't understand what I'm reading here. Under esp on F4 where it says early does that mean he's an early runner or does it mean something else? If it does mean he's an early runner, then I guess I have to change my definition of early. And the numbers to the right of that are 8.6, 9.1 and 14.1. I don't understand what those numbers mean either. Any clarification appreciated. Thanks, Steve |
05-03-2006, 08:30 AM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,854
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Energy vs Positional ESP and Early/Late
Steve,
You have hit upon the classic dichotomy of two camps of 'pace' handicapping. Your initial description of sustained, presser is based upon running position observation, where the Sartin Methodology emphacizes energy distribution style. First a definition of terms presented on the Past Performances F4 Energy screen (and on the Energy Generator and BL/BL analysis screens under ESP). ESP (Energy Disbursement Style) ESP is a label given to a range of %Median values, which in turn is the ratio of velocities (fps) in the 1st two calls to the Total Energy (sum of velocities in all 3 calls). So %Median measures how much a horses energy is expended to the critical 2nd call point. The ESP designations are EAR (Early), E/P (Early Presser), PRE (Presser), S/P (Sustained Presser), SUS (Sustained), LAT (Late). EAR then, indicates a high percentage of the Total Energy disbursed by the 2nd call point, and each subsequent designation describes a range from one point to the next, down to LAT where the horse disburses a relatively low amount of its energy to the 2nd call. If you want to know the ranges, do this: take one race, on a sheet of paper (or in a spreadsheet), make 6 columns for the 6 ranges, look at the F4 screen for the horses, write the %Median figure in one of the 6 ranges until you get a lot of numbers. Mark the high and low numbers in each column and you'll get the idea. As an aside, each range boundary is naturally separated by only .10, so just because an ESP says E/P and the horse is typically EAR, does not necessarily mean it is running atypically: check how close to EAR it is. This is the energy based ESP concept. You will find many a horse whose energy ESP style is contrary to its positional ESP style. I believe Tom Brohamer in his book Modern Pace Handicapping described ESP from a positional point of view (which was a pact made with Doc Sartin, in my opinion, not to publish all the jewels of the Methodology...). That said, in some races (e.g. sprints), at some tracks, a horse with poor position at the top of the stretch, despite energy ESP which matches a profile of winners, may not be a good bet at all. Please keep records of energy style ESP, or %Median ranges for the tracks and distances you analyze. Early/Late Difference (E/L) This number is shown on the F4 Energy screen of a horse's Past Performances in the 2 columns to the right of ESP, and on the Early/Late analysis screen of the race contenders. It is the surplus of EPR over LPR. On the E/L difference screen, if negative, this indicates more LPR than EPR (typical route style), and the sticks or graph lines visually indicate Early vs Late. Consider this not only a corollary to ESP, but more importantly, an image of HOW Early or Late or evenly a horse disburses its energy. If you consult Richie's Spec models posted from time to time, you will see he also tracks rank of early or late in any matchup. In other words, sometimes it matters to know who is the most Early, or most Late (either to include or exclude, depending on your recent model). In some cases (not all), the earliest E/L horse (despite low energy) may gain a dominating postition which others may not catch. Or he may get caught, but may finish in the money. For a corollary to this (i.e. to get more evidence), consult the '4. Matchup Showing Beaten Lengths' screen. For an understanding of the concept of EPR, LPR, CPR you can read Pace Makes the Race. Hope this helps. Ted P.S. If you (or anyone) needs a copy of Pace Makes the Race by Sartin, Schmidt, Hambleton, Pizzola, just email me: ted@ArtofPace.com.
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RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ Last edited by Ted Craven; 05-03-2006 at 10:21 AM. |
05-03-2006, 12:51 PM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 1,258
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Great Explanation
Ted, as good as explanation I have heard thus far about the differences between Energy Expenditure ESP and Visual (positional) ESP, which although different are both valid.
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