E/L change by distance

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Tim Y

fairly close

Seems like a "broad" approach considering in this race you are looking at bottom level 3 year old maiden fillies and the next race upper level older male winners. (same dist/surface)

[Tim Y]

Originally Posted by For The Lead

Seems like a "broad" approach considering in this race you are looking at bottom level 3 year old maiden fillies and the next race upper level older male winners. (same dist/surface)

It is all about RELATIVITY within the Field you are evaluationg and maiden races are ALL ABOUT developing speed. Babies RARELY have any stamina to speak of.

[Tim Y]

Here is a great example of e/l relativity.

7th race - Fort Erie - July 12, 2009

Pgm Horse Jockey Win Place Show
1 T Que Eldridge K. Lindsay 19.60 7.10 5.00
3 Better Than Enough Gerry Olguin 3.00 2.70
6 Service Act Daniel J. David 6.00
Also ran: 4 - Joey D. , 8 - Judith's Aidan , 5 - I Boogie , 7 - One Short
Scratched horses: Rojo Diablo

CHECK out how the RELATIVELY more positive e/l numbers played out in this race

[Tim Y]

10th race - Fort Erie - July 12, 2009

Pgm Horse Jockey Win Place Show
8 Seafields Rui M. Pimentel 9.50 4.40 3.00
9 Approved by Nick Roderick Dacosta 3.50 2.60
11 Manderlay Steven Ronald Bahen 5.00
Also ran: 1 - Flashy J R , 3 - Pacino , 7 - Patrolster , 6 - Vany's Parlour , 4 - Catsintherain , 5 - Fiscal Range , 2 - Turbo Train
Scratched horses: Deed of Freedom , Joey's Smokin Gun

See where in this maiden race, where you can accept HIGHER e/l's than normal races by up to 25 to 40%, the SAME relativity showed up again.

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Tim Y

It is all about RELATIVITY within the Field you are evaluationg and maiden races are ALL ABOUT developing speed. Babies RARELY have any stamina to speak of.

I think we are getting to the same destination using different avenues. I just prefer to "narrow" the model to reflect more closely the type of race I have in front of me.

[Tim Y]

Originally Posted by For The Lead

I think we are getting to the same destination using different avenues. I just prefer to "narrow" the model to reflect more closely the type of race I have in front of me.

Same idea but this works form the early side unilaterally with the RARE exception of the come from behind horse having faced and overcome the same, or faster fractions than the earlier ones, THE ONLY time that the closers take over consistently.