The most important thing in my handicapping

[dlivery]

Good skill

There is one thing I have noticed with your line selection and also my line selection it has become the norm not to have to look past the last or.... back one line if the last line was not got good.

Any time I have gone past the last line there really is a reason to this.

Keep this thread going as we all can learn and earn as we go down this
wonderfull RDSS journey

Lawrence

[Latekick]

Tim ( Lt1) and Bill. Thank you very much. It is a good feeling when you see your hard work start paying off and you understand WHY it is working.
I do owe this site and the both of you lots of credit for education along my journey that i continue to take each and every day of learning and refining. Bill what you do for this website and all of the incredible post you have were definitely a huge part when i first started studying the method and have helped me take steps all in the right direction to get where i am today.
And Tim, for being one of my mentors and taking me one step further in understanding the way to model and helping me to take my next step in learning. Thank you. When learning and reviewing meets hard work and dedication, good things happen. In no way shape or form am i where i want to be. I am becoming very successful and have a great understanding of each race now, but we can always improve and when things get tough is when the most learning can be done. My journey has only just begun.

Thanks for the kind words.

[Latekick]

Originally Posted by dlivery

Good skill

There is one thing I have noticed with your line selection and also my line selection it has become the norm not to have to look past the last or.... back one line if the last line was not got good.

Any time I have gone past the last line there really is a reason to this.

Keep this thread going as we all can learn and earn as we go down this
wonderfull RDSS journey

Lawrence

I am a firm believer in best of last 3 comparable, my line selection is very specific to me and what i have learned about myself and the way i choose lines. I use the same line selection and thought process for every single race and every so many repetitions it becomes automatic. Find what works for you, and stick with it.
And you are right, hopefully this thread continues on. I was originally going to post my other two pick 4s i have hit in these 7 days of April, however i want to see what this thread turns into. I may just post future races as i did with the Fairgrounds post a few weeks back. We ll see. I enjoy getting feedback and answering questions, so this should be a good thing to keep going.
Have a great day of racing

[mowens33]

Latekick, I admire you dedication and drive you have in becoming a better handicapper, reviewing your past sections weather good or bad is easier said than done!
Sounds like you on the right track!!
Keep working your process! I’m sure along the way you will learn (can never stop learning) things you hadn’t thought of before which will only improve on what your working today.
Enjoyed the read!
Thanks, Mike

[poweshow]

Originally Posted by Latekick

I am a firm believer in best of last 3 comparable

Does this mean you choose the best, most comparable race in the last three lines
OR
Does this mean you choose the best of the most comparable races in the last ten races (within reason)?

I believe it means #1, but I just want to see if you're going back further than that...


By the way, Tremendous job on your selections. At least from what others in this thread are alluding to, you were once in the same spot that I currently am with my handicapping, so hopefully I can follow the same trajectory.

[Latekick]

Originally Posted by poweshow

Does this mean you choose the best, most comparable race in the last three lines
OR
Does this mean you choose the best of the most comparable races in the last ten races (within reason)?

I believe it means #1, but I just want to see if you're going back further than that...


By the way, Tremendous job on your selections. At least from what others in this thread are alluding to, you were once in the same spot that I currently am with my handicapping, so hopefully I can follow the same trajectory.

Poweshow, it means most comparable of the last 3 lines. It is rare i will ever go back 4 lines. The only times i do so i have found i tend to only do it in situations where the horses last two races were on sloppy or muddy tracks, then i will use the 3rd and 4th back line to choose from, but like i said 95% of the time my lines come from the last 3 races.
Let me point out a few things that i struggled with when i was in your position starting out. When selecting a line that was 3 races back, or 4 back, do not do this blindly. If the horse finished 8th by 10 and then 5th by 9 lengths its last two races, you should not go 3 lines back to the horses best career performance. I struggled with blindly selecting lines like these and it got me into trouble. If your going to go 3-4 races back, make sure the horses last race or second race back is a good effort.

Thanks for the kind words. I am probably the newest guy when it comes to this websites knowledgable members, although i have been studying the methodology intensely for the past 4 years, there are some guys here that have been doing it before i was even born 20 years ago!
one thing i can say is as you begin this journey of learning yourself and how to use RDSS in your own way, i suggest preparing your mind that just because RDSS is a tremendous program on its own, you will only get out what you put in. Last night i downloaded 2 cards from the same day, and had the results charts all ready to go. Just because the races weren't live and i couldn't bet my money, doesn't mean i cannot educate myself. I suggest you start your 20 race cycles and for every cycle focus on IMPROVING one thing every cycle, while also staying consistent. whatever it is you do when it comes to line selection, or selections, make sure you are consistent. I hope you get off to a great start and hope i can help in any way.

[Mark]

Congratulations for your skill and perseverance. I have never won a Pick-5 or Pick 4 for that matter. I have never bet one. I have a hard enough time winning one in a row.
That said remember Doc's warnings about becoming rigid in your rule making. I personally don't subscribe to use "Last Line, unless.." or "Best of the last 3 comparable" paceline selection routines. There is a reason that they publish up to 10 lines for each horse and it will often tell you the horse's story as well as what his trainer has tried to do to improve him.
In areas of the country where the horse populations at the track are stable and the field sizes are relatively small more restrictive paceline strategies are can be useful. But in others where shippers appear as well as horses off layoff or with a race or two off an extended layoff, the last few lines rarely tell the whole story except that the horse is getting conditioning that will allow him to run back to his previous good efforts.
Seasons of the year will often bring in new horses as trainers shift their stock from track to track as well as bring them from the farm.
With your dedication and work ethic, I am sure that when these things occur you will study and digest the information presented.
I can only refer you to the greatest handicapper of my lifetime, Jim Bradshaw, in his 5 step approach and his work with Richie P on the Hat Check blog. Look at all the 10 past performance lines and determine which line represents the likely horse's effort today given the projected pace and the horse's running style. Each race is unique. One size does not fit all!

[Latekick]

Originally Posted by Mark

Congratulations for your skill and perseverance. I have never won a Pick-5 or Pick 4 for that matter. I have never bet one. I have a hard enough time winning one in a row.
That said remember Doc's warnings about becoming rigid in your rule making. I personally don't subscribe to use "Last Line, unless.." or "Best of the last 3 comparable" paceline selection routines. There is a reason that they publish up to 10 lines for each horse and it will often tell you the horse's story as well as what his trainer has tried to do to improve him.
In areas of the country where the horse populations at the track are stable and the field sizes are relatively small more restrictive paceline strategies are can be useful. But in others where shippers appear as well as horses off layoff or with a race or two off an extended layoff, the last few lines rarely tell the whole story except that the horse is getting conditioning that will allow him to run back to his previous good efforts.
Seasons of the year will often bring in new horses as trainers shift their stock from track to track as well as bring them from the farm.
With your dedication and work ethic, I am sure that when these things occur you will study and digest the information presented.
I can only refer you to the greatest handicapper of my lifetime, Jim Bradshaw, in his 5 step approach and his work with Richie P on the Hat Check blog. Look at all the 10 past performance lines and determine which line represents the likely horse's effort today given the projected pace and the horse's running style. Each race is unique. One size does not fit all!

Very true and thank you for your response.
I have not allowed myself to be restricted to rigid rules when it comes to lines. As i said, my line selection is repetition based off of what has worked for me and what i have studied works for me. Its basic guidelines from Doc that i studied within my own handicapping and now its just automatic. I can't explain it completely. Dont get too far away from the guidelines, but also dont restrict yourself to rigid rules. Find a balance in your line selection, and stay consistent.

[Latekick]

Originally Posted by Latekick

Very true and thank you for your response.
I have not allowed myself to be restricted to rigid rules when it comes to lines. As i said, my line selection is repetition based off of what has worked for me and what i have studied works for me. Its basic guidelines from Doc that i studied within my own handicapping and now its just automatic. I can't explain it completely. Dont get too far away from the guidelines, but also dont restrict yourself to rigid rules. Find a balance in your line selection, and stay consistent.

Let me also add quickly,
One area i found i was struggling in my handicapping when i did the intense 6 month study, was i was missing lots of layoff horses at good prices. So, i fixed it. I began reviewing every single race that a layoff horse won. What i found, FOR ME, ( i remind you all of this is relative to my own line selection, every piece of the puzzle counts and some pieces for you may be different than mine which sometimes results in different results) is that if i forgive the last race 2 races before the horse went to the sidelines, and then select my line from there. Now, i do not do this blindly, i make sure the horse is working regularly. It is not 100% to work overtime, what in this game is? But i have found that with my line selection and adding this quirk, it will payoff more times then it won't. Ill try to see if i can get some examples and try to post here.

[mowens33]

Originally Posted by Mark

Congratulations for your skill and perseverance. I have never won a Pick-5 or Pick 4 for that matter. I have never bet one. I have a hard enough time winning one in a row.
That said remember Doc's warnings about becoming rigid in your rule making. I personally don't subscribe to use "Last Line, unless.." or "Best of the last 3 comparable" paceline selection routines. There is a reason that they publish up to 10 lines for each horse and it will often tell you the horse's story as well as what his trainer has tried to do to improve him.
In areas of the country where the horse populations at the track are stable and the field sizes are relatively small more restrictive paceline strategies are can be useful. But in others where shippers appear as well as horses off layoff or with a race or two off an extended layoff, the last few lines rarely tell the whole story except that the horse is getting conditioning that will allow him to run back to his previous good efforts.
Seasons of the year will often bring in new horses as trainers shift their stock from track to track as well as bring them from the farm.
With your dedication and work ethic, I am sure that when these things occur you will study and digest the information presented.
I can only refer you to the greatest handicapper of my lifetime, Jim Bradshaw, in his 5 step approach and his work with Richie P on the Hat Check blog. Look at all the 10 past performance lines and determine which line represents the likely horse's effort today given the projected pace and the horse's running style. Each race is unique. One size does not fit all!

Mark, I for one also do not adhere to the last 3 Comparable. Don’t get me wrong looking at the most recent races is key (especially the last race) when determining how the horse may run today. So after I go though my ESP progression and determining what horse’s will contend for the lead and what that pace pressure or lack of will affect the early, then moving to the EP/P and then to the SP/S.
If that leads me to the 1 of the last 3 comparable that’s great because in most cases, it’s more recent. But if I see a line that is more to my liking on what I have predicted to be todays POR I have no issue using it.
Using this method, I have good success with pick 3’s, 4’s, (pick 5’s are hard and forget about pick 6). The reason being is with the power of RDSS and the ESP progression that I estimate I have the winner in my top 3 which includes low price favorites about 70% and 80% to 85% from my contenders list.
The one thig a have noticed is that using this method I’m good at picking winner but I still struggle with perfecta and Tri combinations, which I like to bet a little too much!
Latekick, like I said I admire your dedication, so keep doing what you’re doing!!
Nothing I like better than seeing Pace and Cap members making money!!!
Thanks again, Mike