Practice race from "The Hat"

[emilio840]

#1 E (This horse needs to Lead)
#2 S
#4 E
#5 S
#6 EP
#7 P
#8 E (This horse needs to lead)


The Main Tandem horses are #6 and #8. (the fastest)


You can throw out all the other horses and match #6 and #8.

Or you can do it the other way. #1 and #8 both are need to lead horses. They will both do battle up to the half. All the others will be to slow except the #6. The #6 should win the race.

emilio

[Houndog]

This is another good example. I will give it a try. My initial impression is we have alot of early types in this Match-Up, also a horse or 2 that are NL type of early horses.

#1 Early horse
#3 Looks like a presser to me with these horses.
#4 Early also NL type of horse.
#5 Sustained for me in this Match-Up
#6 E/P a versatile horse
#7 Presser (does not seem fast enough)
#8 Early

I am projecting a pace of around 47.3-112.4-139.3. I suspect the race to be won by an Early or E/P type. Which Early horses can I eliminate that will not get the lead today?

To me by virtue of his versatility how this horse can win on or near the lead, and considering the projected pace I would go with #6 as my win contender.

I see several of the other Early horses trying to expend to much Energy trying to stay with each other. For that reason if I was looking to hook #6 in an exacta I would use #5

[admin]

Here is my work

For running styles

1.E
2.SP
4.E
5.E
6.both E and SP
7.EP
8.E
for times I figure 23.4 47.2 112.4 139.3

Tandams are too tricky for this guy they are a big problem
for me and the edited PP are even more messing me up
I am stuggling big time

I figure the 6 and the 2 would be good win bets

[forecast]

Hi Rich,

I love these posts that you are quarterbacking, they're just great. My simple analysis:

The 1 horse can set a pace and finish with a final time that only the 6 horse can match on several occaisions. I would choose the 1 and 6, and if I had to split hairs and select 1 horse, I would choose the 1 horse.

Thanks to you and The Hat for trying to increase our proficiency. All the best.

Forecast

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by forecast

Hi Rich,

I love these posts that you are quarterbacking, they're just great. My simple analysis:

The 1 horse can set a pace and finish with a final time that only the 6 horse can match on several occaisions. I would choose the 1 and 6, and if I had to split hairs and select 1 horse, I would choose the 1 horse.

Thanks to you and The Hat for trying to increase our proficiency. All the best.

Forecast

Thanx for jumping in here. Doing this helps me with my proficiency too Forecast.

Last night was the worst matching I did in the 2 and a half weeks since Jim outlined a "spot play" game plan for me. I have posted up on that in another thread.

I went 1 for 5 at the Meadowlands ( betting 1 horse) and that winner only paid me $ 4.40 after being bet down from 2/1 at 2 mtp.

But I stuck to my plan,wagered Belmont today and went 2 for 3 with win prices of $ 15.60 and $ 9.60.

This race is a goodie. I will leave it here for a couple more days and the put up the result chart. Then Jim will explain a few things about the race the way he did with me when he had me work it.

I forget sometime who the heck I am talking to when we chat on the phone. He is very very softspoken but cool at the same time. He spends quite a bit of time with me and I have to give back out of pure respect.

I run EVERYTHING by him before I post up here to get his ok. He is an excellent teacher. I just pass HIS instructions and ideas "down the line".

Thanx again for jumping in Forecast
Rich

[gj100]

My analysis of this race has the 1,4 with the early lead with the 6 pressing.
6 closes for the win. My exacta bet would be 6/1345.
Looking forward to the results.

[forecast]

Originally Posted by RichieP

Thanx for jumping in here. Doing this helps me with my proficiency too Forecast.

Last night was the worst matching I did in the 2 and a half weeks since Jim outlined a "spot play" game plan for me. I have posted up on that in another thread.

I went 1 for 5 at the Meadowlands ( betting 1 horse) and that winner only paid me $ 4.40 after being bet down from 2/1 at 2 mtp.

But I stuck to my plan,wagered Belmont today and went 2 for 3 with win prices of $ 15.60 and $ 9.60.

This race is a goodie. I will leave it here for a couple more days and the put up the result chart. Then Jim will explain a few things about the race the way he did with me when he had me work it.

I forget sometime who the heck I am talking to when we chat on the phone. He is very very softspoken but cool at the same time. He spends quite a bit of time with me and I have to give back out of pure respect.

I run EVERYTHING by him before I post up here to get his ok. He is an excellent teacher. I just pass HIS instructions and ideas "down the line".

Thanx again for jumping in Forecast
Rich

Hi Rich,

Keep your chin up, the hard work will pay off. What you're attempting to do - get rid of software, speed/pace figures, mainstream handicapping, etc. - and handicap directly (and only) from the past performances is a very difficult and attractive proposition. Imagine being able to walk into ANY racing establishment in North America, purchase the pp's, and win consistently with only the tools in your mind! Now that is something worth working for.

Believe in your teacher, believe in yourself, and work your ass off. You are obviously a very bright and talented handicapper. You will get what you're after.

All the best.

Forecast

[admin]

Originally Posted by forecast

Hi Rich,

Keep your chin up, the hard work will pay off. What you're attempting to do - get rid of software, speed/pace figures, mainstream handicapping, etc. - and handicap directly (and only) from the past performances is a very difficult and attractive proposition. Imagine being able to walk into ANY racing establishment in North America, purchase the pp's, and win consistently with only the tools in your mind! Now that is something worth working for.

Believe in your teacher, believe in yourself, and work your ass off. You are obviously a very bright and talented handicapper. You will get what you're after.

All the best.

Forecast

wow Forecast
very well said I can never thank Rich and Jim enough
for there teaching and patience and for all they give for our group

Bill

[Bill Lyster]

1 E lead or nothing
3 SP
4 E
5 s
6 EP
7 EP
8 E lead at all costs; pace of race line 5 22.4-47-112.3-143

8 takes lead and beats off the rest of the early types, probably gets pressured by one or more of the e-e/p's, #6 (line2) pounces in stretch to win easily, #5 from way off for 2nd or 3rd

6 Win
8 Place
5 Show

[RichieP]

Here is the result chart of the race. A LOT of folks have the race nailed!
Jim will come on tomorrow and post up a few thoughts about the race. He is off to the casino today for some wagering

Rich