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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ... |
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01-08-2022, 11:44 AM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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Turf choices just for turning on your RDSS program
I have been doing some research about handicapping in general and ran across this bit of information. It applies to turf racing which generally runs late at most distances. I look at any turf race and before I pass judgement on the best of last three line chosen by the computer I go to the Primary screen and see who the top 3 LPR horses are and record that in the margin of my notes.
Yesterday and a day or two back I found this information. Fun fact of the day (1/7/22) at FG. Turf races were 2-4-6-8. Before any handicapping the top 3 LPR from the Primary screen were as follows: R2 6-5-7, 6 wins at 3.5 R4 1-7-6, horses finish 7-1-6, winner at 4.7 R6 3-5-10, 3 wins at 2.8 R8 7-6-2, horses finish 6-7-2, winner at 1.6 AT SA 3 of the first 4 races, the top 3 LPR had winner 3 times before capping. At TAM 2 playable races 1 top 3 LPR at 7/1 Yesterday at FG 4 turf races all 4 won by one of the top 3 LPR with one sweep, 1 win place, 1 win show and 1 win with 5/2 being the highest price This could be just a short term anomaly, so anyone else who can track this should chime in. It could be a great starting point for better turf results. Bill |
01-08-2022, 11:47 AM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,151
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Thanks for sharing
Jeff |
01-09-2022, 11:21 AM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada
Posts: 2,539
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Bill,
It would have to be a short term thing. Just for fun I tracked all turf races yesterday in North America for top 3 LPR before handicapping, betting $20 on each plus ties. It may have worked on the 7th but not the 8th. Still short term but it would be too easy for this to hold up over time. Bill Lysters Turf Test Jan 8 2022 FG 2 (3,10,2) OUT -$60 FG 4 (3,7,9) OUT -$60 FG 6 (1,7,2) OUT -$60 FG 8 (3,10,4) OUT -$60 GP 6 (9,2,4) WIN +$10 GP 8 (2,5,3) WIN +$174 GP 9 (9,7,13) OUT -$60 HOU 3 (1,3,4,5) WIN +$63 SA 1 (6,4,2) OUT -$60 SA 3 (6,1,8) WIN -$28 SA 5 (10,2,6,5) OUT -$80 SA 7 (8.5.9) OUT -$60 SA 9 (12,11,3) OUT -$60 TAM 1 (7,5,2) WIN +$54 TAM 5 (5,3,7) WIN +$6 TAM 7 (1,4,8) OUT -$60 TAM 10 (5,9,4) OUT -$60 Hit 6/17 Return -$401 Pook |
01-09-2022, 12:07 PM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
|
Pook,
I have to agree. I went back and did several races and what you show held true. However, some patterns appear that might be worthwhile looking into. I did not cap any maiden races with more than 2 FTS. I am looking at the VDC info. Ideally you'd want your contenders to be gaining from 1F-2C-FIN, with the exception being early horses, but earlies should be within say 2.0-3.0 at 1F, if not they are out. If a close up early loses .1 or.2 at 2C it needs to make that up by the FIN number, else out. A really sustained horse may not gain or even lose a little at 2C, but must have a big FIN and a low overall VDC to be considered. You will occasionally find a 0-0-0 horse with a VDC at 4.0 +/-, that 4.0 is a real red sign, have not seen any win lately. In general you can eliminate any horse with a VDC 4.0 or greater, but look at the context of the other horses before doing so. Thanks for your followup. Good to share info with you. Bill |
01-09-2022, 12:59 PM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 3,489
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For me, a warning sign is when I predict nearly all of the horses to be at or near a similar pace. This is especially true if I show a lot of, say, SP horses and no E or L. I am still working through what to do in these situations.
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01-09-2022, 01:01 PM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,163
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Weather can also be a factor. Based on past observations at Bel if they get no rain in the later part of June into July the turf courses become like cement
and the late horses are at a distinct disadvantage. Didn't track it this yr. Tim
__________________
Trust but verify |
01-09-2022, 01:05 PM | #7 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 3,489
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Good observation, Tim. I think this is true at Lone Star, too. In Texas, we get a lot of wild weather in the spring and in June it starts getting hot and dry. The turf course often becomes more early. One year, we had no rain from Memorial Day to Labor Day and 81 days over 100 degrees.
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01-09-2022, 02:39 PM | #8 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 307
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Quote:
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01-09-2022, 05:58 PM | #9 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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Thanks Dan, its always good to get some "old" new info.
I will check it out. |
01-11-2022, 05:02 PM | #10 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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Hey Dan,
Just wondering if you got anything more specific from Howard, especially about the inclusion of HIDDEN factor and its interrelationship, if any, to the LPR. The Primary screen shows the values of the various factors, so there is a basis to make comparisons of what we might call real numbers as opposed to just the rankings 1-2-3-4. The primary screen allows a little more perspective on how close is close or how good is good, when a horse is ranked above another. Thanks, |
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