Problem RACES Presque Isle Downs 6-23-15

[Latekick]

Heres my first problem race. I don't usually use the last line for every horse but it just so happens that every usable line in this race was the last race, heres my BL/BL
The winner was the 2. He was 5th Bl/BL and 4th VDC behind 3 horses tied for first.

[Latekick]

Unfortunately its not letting me post the screenshot because it says it is too big and I'm not so good with the new mac so i can't downsize it.
But its the 8th at PID today and the winner was 5th BLBL and 4 VDC. I used last line for all horses.

[tleusin]

I looked at the race. I downloaded PID today even tho I usually pass that track.
The horses I got were the 2,5,7,8. The 2 and 7 were the 2nd line. Both were dropping in value so their 2nd line was usable.
I am no good at screenshots myself.

[Latekick]

I am not sure what i did wrong in this race. I also sent this problem race in an email to another person i work races with and he says he also had the 2 near the top. For me he was 4th VDC and 5th BLBL
What am i missing

[Bill V.]

Today race 8 6/23/15

I don't see a 7 or a 8

I hope I am looking at the right race
I think something is wrong
If I use rdss2 in val 4 mode the 2 off the last line gets a 83
adjusted speed rating This puts it on top

However if I do the race with the dos version of validator the same line
1 for horse 2 gets only a 78 speed rating
on RDSS2 the last line puts the winner on top
on Val4 the last line gets me the 2 ranked 4th and or 5th on VDC

             PID0623 8 5.5 D CL 3+  $19,000 CP=$25,000 8:20PM               3/7
JOCK/TRAIN       R   W   P   S   W%        R  W  P  S  EARNINGS   W%      EPS  R
MARTINEZ, WILL  68  13  11   6   19 LIFE   8  2  1  0    25,325   25    3,166  4
STEFFEE, JED     6   1   1   1   17 CURR   3  1  1  0    12,951   33    4,317  2
                                    PAST   5  1  0  0    12,375   20    2,475  5
ML= 9/2                             D-SP   8  2  1  0    25,328   25    3,166  5
  2 D J SOUL SISTA           AGE=4  OFF-D
 COMMENT:
                      EQUALIZED, NORMALIZED AND ADJUSTED
L DAYSTRK RCODISTSd 1STC  2NDC  FINC   BL1   BL2   BLS   BLF  SR  ESP     L PI
1[  16PID 5FT 6.5D  22.9  45.8 104.6  0.15  1.50  0.15  3.00  78          1    ]
2[  34PID 6FT 5.5D  23.2  47.1 105.3  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  77          2    ]
3   88OP  3FT 6.0D  0.0   0.0   0.0
4  285PID 8FT 6.0D  22.8  45.8 104.6  0.00  0.00  1.80  9.80  71          4
5  309PID 1FT 6.0D  23.2  46.2 105.6  0.15  0.00  0.00  0.00  76          5
6  334PID 4FT 5.5D  22.5  46.4 105.2  0.20  0.20  0.70  3.80  74          6
7  350PID 2FT 6.0D  23.4  46.5 104.6  0.00  0.50  1.70 11.40  70          7
8  366PID 8FT 5.5D  22.3  46.2 105.1  7.10 11.60  6.60  7.50  71          8

[Latekick]

Bill, once again you are another to say that in the race the #2 DJ SOUL SISTA came out on top. That is indeed the right race. I had the last line for all horses and it was 5th and 4th V/DC on my reds. IS there something wrong with my program?

[Latekick]

Screenshot

[Latekick]

When fav is hidden

[Ted Craven]

I get about the same BL order as you do (my DTV ranges may be different = -15 +15).



However, one question I would always ASK is - can anyone challenge the Early horse? #2 is the Early horse (indeed, a Fighter). The #5 is the only other Early horse, but as the Projected Pace tools shows, cannot touch the likely times of the #2. Thus - the #2 will slow down and CONSERVE its energy for later disbursement against the likely Closers. Thus, the pace will not be as fast, and today's Total Energies and SRs will not be as high.

Will the Closers over take the #2? Maybe. But if it is unchallenged (as is likely), there is a chance it can hold. We don't KNOW if this will happen, but at 5-1 this is a ripe and recurring scenario for betting on (or somehow including) an unchallenged Early horse.

I might suggest you always consider the above generic analysis of the likely Early battle, when determining if there is ANY value to mentally rejigging the BL Line score.

FWIW.





Ted

[Latekick]

Hey Ted thanks for the reply. Now that you say that i do notice what you are talking about and i did a small study on this a few weeks back on horses that were not in MY top 3 VDC that won. Usually they would win because of EXTREME pace and running style advantages. In this case it happened again, the #2 was the only E horse in the race and there wasn't even an EP in the race. So he had an extreme advantage and i should have noticed that. Thanks for pointing that out