Preakness Stakes Marathon (?)

[Bill Lyster]

Top three and fifth from Derby go here with Divining Rod, Tale of Verve off maiden win and the local Bodhisatva.

Danzig Moon, 5th in Derby, improved in Derby closing to within 3.25 lengths at the mile mark before slightly fading, like Oxbox did a couple back, although Oxbow got within about a half length before fading, then went on to wire the Preakness field. I would also note that Oxbow had a top 5 mile time before the Preakness and was only about .36 second off the best mile time. Firing Line and Dortmund have run in the mid to high 134s and mid 135s to Danzig's 137.1 best so there is a lot of improving to do on that front.

Divining Rod improved in its last and should track about 4th in this field.

Tale of Verve is trained by Dallas Stewart who seems to understand what it takes to get a horse ready for these TC races. Couldn't get in the Derby but in the last two Derbys his horse finished 2nd at balloon odds that defied RDSS and almost every other handicapping system, so I will have an exacta with this horse to save my large face.

The top 11 mile times come from the top three Derby finishers, all of whom have shown pressing and leading ability. #12 is Danzig Moon, .63 seconds slower than #11, who benefits first from an unexpected speed duel from the top three, but is probably good enough to be in a box trifecta with the other Derby runners.

If for some reason the local horse gets a slow early lead and is ignored by the more seasoned types waiting for a pace collapse or one of the top three engages the slow pace setter it could set up for an unlikely finish. I really think the cruising speed of the top three will have the local gasping by the 6 furlong mark.

The Hat Marathon method (even tho this is 1/16th short of a true marathon) of best mile times combined with positioning strongly favors the top 3 from the derby and I would hope for a reversal of the tandem from the Derby for a little price. Might have to play the super to make any $$ this time around.

Good luck

[Hoof 11]

I'm amazed that Danzig Moon is even running in the Preakness, i had read that the plan was to run him in the Derby and the Queens Plate. I guess that has changed, but you would think he would have an easier time in the Queens Plate then the Preakness, or maybe Casse plans on the full monty for this horse, but then again, what do i know.....

[Bill Lyster]

Well, from my point of view Casse has just been getting his feet wet, what with expanding his stable to Santa Anita and other US locales with pretty noticeable success. IN the process he is proving that his stock has to be contended with at every venue, not just at home. With all due respect most Canadian horses do not run to the same class in the U.S. as they have up north.

My guess is that a U.S. Grade 1 would look better on the resume than a C Gr 1 and the best chance, with any improvement, in my mind is The Preakness. Besides, isn't the QP in mid June (after the Belmont) so a race now makes sense and then you can get 4-5 weeks rest in between. Course a quality performance in Baltimore is going to squelch the QP odds more than a little, don't you think?

I think he can hit the board Saturday but probably not in the top slot, but who knows, my record is not exactly sterling here.

[Bill Lyster]

Runners, mile times and running positions. Look how far down the list you have to go to find someone other than Derby top three!

[Hoof 11]

I agree about the Canadian horses, it’s been awhile since we’ve had a true contender in the Derby. I thought Uncaptured was the next one during his two year old campaign, but he ended up being pretty mediocre as a 3 year old.

Casse stated that he is expecting a better performance from Danzig Moon this weekend, he’s the type of horse that keeps improving with every start. I would imagine that a ITM finish would have an impact on Danzig’s odds in the Plate (July 5th), and could possibly dethrone Ami’s Flatter as the ML Favorite, but there are 4 or 5 horses that have a good shot in my opinion. It will be interesting to see how he runs this weekend, i thought he ran a respectable race in the Derby.

Good luck with your Preakness picks, i dig reading your posts, i always feel like i learned something after one of your assessments.

[Bill Lyster]

Mr. Z's best race was the 12/20/14 Grade 1 at Los Al where he, Firing Line and Dortmund finished a nose apart. In several slower and much slower races since then he has not finished as well. The Los Al race was run very close to the lead and since then several have beat him to the lead. He might compromise one of the top three out of the win, but he cannot win it unless a different horse shows up Saturday.

With Divining Rod having run 3-3-3 at Keeneland, that would make 5 on or near the lead and might help Danzig Moon's chances of a top 3 finish or even the Dallas Stewart horse Tale of Verve.

...that is it for now.