Modeling Inner Vs. Outer Turf courses

[derrick24948]

I was wondering folks thoughts on modeling turf courses. Do you make a separate model for both inner and outer turf courses for both sprints and routes? That is 4 models for turf at a given track.

My thought is you'd have to, given the tighter turns on the inner course.

Some tracks this doesn't really matter. For example, Cnl runs sprints on the outer course and routes on the inner, so just two models. But Woodbine seems to alternate both courses for both routes and sprints. It's tough to get enough races to make a meaningful model.

Extra question for those that use a model: how many races do you like to have in your model before using it for your final decision making? 10? 20?

[Lt1]

Hi Derrick. Excellent questions. You are correct you must keep separate models for the inner & outer turf courses by each distance run on them. I'll go with as little as 2 races in my models[smaller bets] After I 5 races I go with my normal bet size.
Tim

[Lt1]

I should have added that since I usually have a model from the prior meet I don't need to see many races to feel comfortable. Over the yrs I have found that unless there was a new suface put in or some extreme weather the tracks I play don't vary much meet to meet.
Tim

[derrick24948]

Thanks for the info and wisdom, Tim. I appreciate it! That's an interesting point that tracks don't seem to vary too much. I've just started to experiment with incorporating modeling into my play. I've been gun-shy of altering my contender ranking much without 15+ races in each model.

[Lt1]

Derrick until you are comfortable take the safe approach. Nobody ever lost money passing a race. Same goes for wagering only bet what you are comfortable with[and can afford to lose].
Tim

[dadams6357]

In regards to models...I have found that a lil as four past lines will do.
I am not sure of keeping a long term amount of data for todays race.
I feel that the most recent data may be the most relevant.

Don