Final thoughts on exacta charting - Pace and Cap

omar · 08-22-2023, 08:51 PM

When playing a race I always look for a race with at least 8 horses because I want a decent price. I did not play this race or any races today for that matter.
Here’s how you get to the 3 horse who paid $39 in the first at Indianapolis Horseshoe. Very ez.
First you look at the favorite and if you feel he’s the winner then move on to another race. Here it’s the 5. Obviously the 1&2 are going to be the lowest exactas because they’re the 2nd & third choices, but looking at the 3, he’s a $36 # at 18-1 while the 8 is a $35 # at 8-1. Now with a ten point difference in odds between those two, my focus is going to be on the 3 horse.
Next look at the difference in exactas between the 5 and 1 & the 5 & 2. Five bucks in both cases is too close when considering the 5 is 1-1, the 1 is 2-1 and the 2 is 7/2. Even the 2 is almost double the 1 but the exacta prices don’t reflect that. That tells me the 5 should not win. The difference between the 1&2 is only $4 and 1-5 vs 2-5 is only $2. Again too close in my opinion. I would favor the 2 over the 1. So the 3 is the winner right? Not so fast. Remember the 3 horse, let’s check the exactas with him. With him and the 8 across, the 5 is the lowest exacta. In my opinion if the 1 or 2 were the likely winner of the race then their exacta should be close to the #5 but they weren’t. So I would either play the 3 to win or win/place. In the exotics I would use the 5-2-1-8 around the 3 horse, depot how conservative or aggressive you want to be.
See results and screenshots below.
A word of caution. If you’re going to watch the board then watch it because if you check the horse in the pp’s you might throw yourself off a good bet. Don’t worry about the age, class, distance, surface or track condition either. The board is the board, period!
Omar

http://paceandcap.com/forums/attachm...1&d=1692751766

http://paceandcap.com/forums/attachm...1&d=1692751766

http://paceandcap.com/forums/attachm...1&d=1692751766

pilot · 08-23-2023, 06:17 PM

Very nice Omar, thanks for posting.

Wayne

omar · 08-23-2023, 07:17 PM

That’s what I’m here for, to teach and help.

dadams6357 · 08-23-2023, 09:31 PM

Omar
Any books you would recommend for the board watching.
I only know of 1 but that was based on Inefficiencies in the Win place and show pools.

Thanks
Don

omar · 08-24-2023, 06:01 AM

Only Albert Illich’s how to pick winners for the proportionate odds daily double method. All my exacta charting I figured out back in 1978-79 on my own. The only quantifiable thing in horse racing is the tote board, consistentcy, in my opinion. Everything else is smoke and mirrors and guesswork. I gave you a blueprint to work from starting with update and finishing with this post. Takes practice. You’ll have to recognize the board patterns for faves, medium price horses and real longshots.
Other than my work I no of no other books on the subject.
Omar

08-22-2023, 08:51 PM	#1
omar Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 377	Final thoughts on exacta charting When playing a race I always look for a race with at least 8 horses because I want a decent price. I did not play this race or any races today for that matter. Here’s how you get to the 3 horse who paid $39 in the first at Indianapolis Horseshoe. Very ez. First you look at the favorite and if you feel he’s the winner then move on to another race. Here it’s the 5. Obviously the 1&2 are going to be the lowest exactas because they’re the 2nd & third choices, but looking at the 3, he’s a $36 # at 18-1 while the 8 is a $35 # at 8-1. Now with a ten point difference in odds between those two, my focus is going to be on the 3 horse. Next look at the difference in exactas between the 5 and 1 & the 5 & 2. Five bucks in both cases is too close when considering the 5 is 1-1, the 1 is 2-1 and the 2 is 7/2. Even the 2 is almost double the 1 but the exacta prices don’t reflect that. That tells me the 5 should not win. The difference between the 1&2 is only $4 and 1-5 vs 2-5 is only $2. Again too close in my opinion. I would favor the 2 over the 1. So the 3 is the winner right? Not so fast. Remember the 3 horse, let’s check the exactas with him. With him and the 8 across, the 5 is the lowest exacta. In my opinion if the 1 or 2 were the likely winner of the race then their exacta should be close to the #5 but they weren’t. So I would either play the 3 to win or win/place. In the exotics I would use the 5-2-1-8 around the 3 horse, depot how conservative or aggressive you want to be. See results and screenshots below. A word of caution. If you’re going to watch the board then watch it because if you check the horse in the pp’s you might throw yourself off a good bet. Don’t worry about the age, class, distance, surface or track condition either. The board is the board, period! Omar http://paceandcap.com/forums/attachm...1&d=1692751766 http://paceandcap.com/forums/attachm...1&d=1692751766 http://paceandcap.com/forums/attachm...1&d=1692751766 Attached Images

Similar Threads
Thread	Thread Starter	Forum	Replies	Last Post
Charting the exacta board	omar	General Discussion	9	08-10-2023 07:55 PM
Random Thoughts	vderdak	General Discussion	16	03-04-2013 10:49 PM
Final Fraction Time Analysis-What Is Best?	BrandonG	Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum	2	11-05-2012 04:36 AM
E/L Screen 2.0 black box results opening week at EVD	RichieP	RDSS2 / FAQ's	45	05-03-2011 11:25 AM

08-23-2023, 06:17 PM	#2
pilot Grade 2 Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 92	Very nice Omar, thanks for posting. Wayne

08-23-2023, 07:17 PM	#3
omar Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 377	That’s what I’m here for, to teach and help.

08-23-2023, 09:31 PM	#4
dadams6357 Grade 2 Join Date: Mar 2015 Location: Downers Grove, Il Posts: 78	Omar Any books you would recommend for the board watching. I only know of 1 but that was based on Inefficiencies in the Win place and show pools. Thanks Don

08-24-2023, 06:01 AM	#5
omar Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 377	Only Albert Illich’s how to pick winners for the proportionate odds daily double method. All my exacta charting I figured out back in 1978-79 on my own. The only quantifiable thing in horse racing is the tote board, consistentcy, in my opinion. Everything else is smoke and mirrors and guesswork. I gave you a blueprint to work from starting with update and finishing with this post. Takes practice. You’ll have to recognize the board patterns for faves, medium price horses and real longshots. Other than my work I no of no other books on the subject. Omar