no one on the lead - Pace and Cap

simon · 02-17-2008, 06:27 PM

Hi

I think I read somewhere here something about races
non maiden were no horse had a lead at any call in its last 3 races

I have looked for them but this is the first on I found
I kind of had to cheat The 5 did have the lead early in its pp's
but that was before a 500 day layoff This is its third race after
the layoff. In its two races since its been back it has not had the lead

I won this race today from Santa Anita
I saw the 6 as being a lone early. Even if another horse found itself
on the lead someplace the horse is not used to
I figured the six would relax just enough to stay close and
use its energy late
It worked out great as the 6 went wire to wire
Only paid $5.60 but I bet the 6-2 60/40 so I did good

Rich can you comment about these races were no horse has the lead but some one is gonna get the lead

Thanks
RK

RichieP · 02-17-2008, 06:41 PM

Ragin

Straight up you are asking me my opinion and it involves a race type that is by FAR my biggest weakness matching horses. Races where there is NO clearly defined pace setter. Frankly I am NOT good nor the person to ask man ok?

Maybe Don sees this race type in his comfort zone and could comment. Or one of our other matchers.

I will send the regular pp's to Jim in a day or so and ask HIM to give you some feedback Ragin ok? Promiso

Btw heck of a good job doing things YOUR way!

Richie

Neil S. · 02-17-2008, 09:21 PM

Rich:

I remember "The Hat" stating that in races such as these find the horse that is a presser that races positionally closest to the fastest pace. These horses generally find themselves on the lead and they "freak out" as they are not accustomed to doing this. These horses should be tossed and horses who have demonstrated an ability to race well against this type of pace become the plays. I would be curious if applying this to the race in question would have gotten the winner.

Neil

don p · 02-17-2008, 10:06 PM

race 5 santa anita feb 15 a good example of this ....no horse in the race has ever been in front so what i do is look for first call positioning either closest to the front or furtherback with upto 3 beaten lenghts...what i find is #1great seige who sat 4 beaten 11/2 and the nent lowest beaten lenghts was #5 phantom strike....now i just look a sprints...the horse art hous has a 5beaten 7 in his sprint but due to the fct that he didn't get the lead in a route does not make him a lead horse here...my pace horse becomes the #1....and

don p · 02-17-2008, 10:12 PM

my ttwo paceline contenders are #1 and #5.....they paraded to the wire....also i knew that if the #1 got the lead he would be hard pressed to hold of the #5 because the #5 can pass horses and if the #5 got the lead it was over...he paid15.40 wire to wire.....i said feb 15 it was the 5th feb 17

RichieP · 02-18-2008, 08:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by don p

race 5 santa anita feb 15 a good example of this ....no horse in the race has ever been in front so what i do is look for first call positioning either closest to the front or furtherback with upto 3 beaten lenghts...what i find is #1great seige who sat 4 beaten 11/2 and the nent lowest beaten lenghts was #5 phantom strike....now i just look a sprints...the horse art hous has a 5beaten 7 in his sprint but due to the fct that he didn't get the lead in a route does not make him a lead horse here...my pace horse becomes the #1....and

Hi Don
I just looked for the race and I don't see either of the horses you mention in the 5th race or any other race on 2/15 at SA.

Different day maybe? Thanks

don p · 02-18-2008, 09:09 PM

Sorry It Was Feb 17 Race 5

**Thanks Don.** - Richie

VoodooFan · 02-18-2008, 10:56 PM

Interesting way of using beaten lengths with position/projecting.

VoodooFan

don p · 02-19-2008, 10:25 AM

to voodoo.....be very careful..only in"ugly" paceless races...

MIKE1121 · 02-20-2008, 02:45 PM

Races which have no clear leader, I believe my hit rate using pace is somewhere like 2 for 137. It just dawned on me that I am trying to use Pace to handicap a PACELESS race.Maybe this is the reason for my low hit rate... Don't use a screw driver to pound in a nail.... need the right tool for the right job.

Mike.

02-17-2008, 06:41 PM	#2
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	Ragin Straight up you are asking me my opinion and it involves a race type that is by FAR my biggest weakness matching horses. Races where there is NO clearly defined pace setter. Frankly I am NOT good nor the person to ask man ok? Maybe Don sees this race type in his comfort zone and could comment. Or one of our other matchers. I will send the regular pp's to Jim in a day or so and ask HIM to give you some feedback Ragin ok? Promiso Btw heck of a good job doing things YOUR way! Richie __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

02-18-2008, 09:09 PM	#7
don p AlwNW2X Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 27	Sorry It Was Feb 17 Race 5 Thanks Don. - Richie Last edited by RichieP; 02-18-2008 at 09:27 PM.

02-17-2008, 06:27 PM	#1
simon Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 153	no one on the lead Hi I think I read somewhere here something about races non maiden were no horse had a lead at any call in its last 3 races I have looked for them but this is the first on I found I kind of had to cheat The 5 did have the lead early in its pp's but that was before a 500 day layoff This is its third race after the layoff. In its two races since its been back it has not had the lead I won this race today from Santa Anita I saw the 6 as being a lone early. Even if another horse found itself on the lead someplace the horse is not used to I figured the six would relax just enough to stay close and use its energy late It worked out great as the 6 went wire to wire Only paid $5.60 but I bet the 6-2 60/40 so I did good Rich can you comment about these races were no horse has the lead but some one is gonna get the lead Thanks RK Attached Images __________________ Doc and Jim

02-17-2008, 09:21 PM	#3
Neil S. Grade 1 Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Pembroke Pines, FL Posts: 170	Rich: I remember "The Hat" stating that in races such as these find the horse that is a presser that races positionally closest to the fastest pace. These horses generally find themselves on the lead and they "freak out" as they are not accustomed to doing this. These horses should be tossed and horses who have demonstrated an ability to race well against this type of pace become the plays. I would be curious if applying this to the race in question would have gotten the winner. Neil

02-17-2008, 10:06 PM	#4
don p AlwNW2X Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 27	race 5 santa anita feb 15 a good example of this ....no horse in the race has ever been in front so what i do is look for first call positioning either closest to the front or furtherback with upto 3 beaten lenghts...what i find is #1great seige who sat 4 beaten 11/2 and the nent lowest beaten lenghts was #5 phantom strike....now i just look a sprints...the horse art hous has a 5beaten 7 in his sprint but due to the fct that he didn't get the lead in a route does not make him a lead horse here...my pace horse becomes the #1....and

02-17-2008, 10:12 PM	#5
don p AlwNW2X Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 27	my ttwo paceline contenders are #1 and #5.....they paraded to the wire....also i knew that if the #1 got the lead he would be hard pressed to hold of the #5 because the #5 can pass horses and if the #5 got the lead it was over...he paid15.40 wire to wire.....i said feb 15 it was the 5th feb 17

02-18-2008, 10:56 PM	#8
VoodooFan True Disciple of Voodoo Join Date: May 2006 Location: EarthQuake country( cali , baby) Posts: 349	Interesting way of using beaten lengths with position/projecting. VoodooFan

02-19-2008, 10:25 AM	#9
don p AlwNW2X Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 27	to voodoo.....be very careful..only in"ugly" paceless races...

02-20-2008, 02:45 PM	#10
MIKE1121 Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 131	Races which have no clear leader, I believe my hit rate using pace is somewhere like 2 for 137. It just dawned on me that I am trying to use Pace to handicap a PACELESS race.Maybe this is the reason for my low hit rate... Don't use a screw driver to pound in a nail.... need the right tool for the right job. Mike.