working races

[Bill V.]

NICE HIT

"Wow about 6 pts ahead of 2nd horse in TPR and
also big advantage in TE

As Dick Schmidt used to say on those big advantage
TPR horses

RUN TO THE WINDOWS"


Race 7 Esther's Classy Lass wins and pays $17.00

[Bill V.]

Chart

[Lt1]

Nice hit Bill. Hope you loaded up on her

[Bill V.]

Yes but to tell the truth its always nice to win 5.5 races
My hard work over all these years worked out. and that is a big part of the methodology, the satisfaction 0f making decisions, not charting "factors"

Sometimes I really need a Sartin Methodology win

Doc must have whispered in Esthers ear

Bill

[Appy]

That was terrific Bill!

[Segwin]

Very nice Bill!

[pilot]

Congrates Bill


Wayne

[dogkatcher]

Congratulations, nice pick.
I have a couple of questions about the pace line used.

Is it because of your 5.5 specialty awareness, that you went to line 2
instead of 1?

Line 2 seemed to be abnormally high for this horse, but her 2nd highest adj. speed
rating of 81 was also from a 5.5 race, perhaps giving support to the choice of line 2.

Did you disregard that her Early/Late graph was contrary to all her races
except when she ran in routes? I know you like to look at the graphs at times.

I didn't play or even handicap this race until reading this post. I ended up using line 1
as being current and appropriate and Esthers did finish 3rd on BL/BL and 4th of 5 on
the TPR chart.

Like you expressed, experience and hard work over the years has given you the insight to make the best decisions. May we all find our niche or specialty, wishing you
continued success, and thanks for all your guidance.

[Appy]

I'm certainly not on Bill's experience level, but line 2 would have been my choice in this instance because it is what I call "conditionally perfect". That means there will be fewer adjustments necessary. IMO the fewer adjustments made the more accurate the line.

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by dogkatcher

Congratulations, nice pick.
I have a couple of questions about the pace line used.

Is it because of your 5.5 specialty awareness, that you went to line 2
instead of 1?

Line 2 seemed to be abnormally high for this horse, but her 2nd highest adj. speed
rating of 81 was also from a 5.5 race, perhaps giving support to the choice of line 2.

Did you disregard that her Early/Late graph was contrary to all her races
except when she ran in routes? I know you like to look at the graphs at times.

I didn't play or even handicap this race until reading this post. I ended up using line 1
as being current and appropriate and Esthers did finish 3rd on BL/BL and 4th of 5 on
the TPR chart.

Like you expressed, experience and hard work over the years has given you the insight to make the best decisions. May we all find our niche or specialty, wishing you
continued success, and thanks for all your guidance.

Hello DogKatcher

I want to say its an honor to speak to you, as I am very impressed with your
skill using the Sartin Methodology

To answer your questions ,

Yes I used line 2. I feel that 5.5 races at Parx are not comparable to 7 furlong races.

I am glad you noticed that line 5 at 5.5 furlongs is also a plus pace line.
If you look at the total energy of both 5.5 races line 2 and 5 you will see
that line 2, seems much better than other distances is not that aberrant
than line 5.

My feeling about line 1 was it was a plus line but it put the horse on a 4 week rest.

a third reason I used line 2 is I saw my other contenders horse 1 4 and 5
all had big early sticks on the TPR screen and all three were deficient in LPR
according to my records.

I felt line 2 was the best of the last 3 at a comparable distance surface and competition level and that its late energy and preference to the 5.5 distance
made line 2 the line to use.


Thanks
Bill