Need Help Finding the Win Bet

[CaptDon100]

Here is the race, Thanks Apply, it is good to see how you did the race. Looking at this race NOW. I have the 6 on top, and at 3/1, 132 days since last race.
The 6 should not be on top

[Ted Craven]

Further to my comments above, please consider the following line selections and contender identifications:









There are 4 Early horses in this 7 horse race, and 3 of those are arguably Fighters (they are inclined to go head to head for the lead). Question #1: do the Early horses suffer ANY compromises? (YES).

Question #2: Have any of the 3 horses returning after 100+ days off shown they've been able to win first back off such a layoff? (NO). Are they compromised? (YES) In other words, are there any negatives to mitigate that they will perform just as well as they did in their chosen pacelines? (YES - plus the traditional stats, see FTL's writings, about percentage of Winners returning after > 90 days off).

Question #3: Does the #5 horse have an excuse for his last race poor performance? (YES - 'bumped start, 2 path', per the Trip notes; also it was a route). Forgive that last race, especially as he's returning in 17 days (trainer thinks he's fit). Then try using any of his other previous 7 races (though the 2nd race will do) - you will find that he stays in 3rd position on the BL Odds line = a contender at good odds. He closed very well in the Nov 22 Tandem against the #7 and #1 horse. Allow that that Tandem may reverse. 10-1 odds is excellent insurance against the possibility that it doesn't.

The Early horses can ALL match each others' Fraction 1 times, causing some of them to try to exert more energy to attain their preferred lead position than they can spare (and especially the #3 and #6 who are still getting back into shape).

The OTE horse who runs positionally closest to the fastest pace is the #5. It IS a contender. For all the foregoing reasons, I make the #6 a not-for-win contender - PLUS, it will only pay us 5/2 or 2-1 if it wins despite the drawbacks it faces.

Thus, regardless of whether you make the #1 and #7 non-win contenders due to the Earlies getting wiped out, the #5 is your primary OTE horse and deserves to be one of your 2 win bets (some might say the ONLY Win bet).

For your consideration ...

Ted

[Segwin]

Ted, didn't you make a video once of how you went about the process of paceline and contender selection?

[Appy]

Oh man, Ted that is an outstanding breakdown process example.
Don has got to love that one. I know I do.

When you separate the entries into contender categories (tiers?) I presume you do that by secondary=itm and non=no line?

Great thread you got going here, Don!

[Segwin]

For The Lead has two threads that you should read as well Don (if you haven't already) and they are located in this forum.

Just Follow the Guidelines is one and Picking Contenders and Paceline's is another one.

[CaptDon100]

Thanks Ted This is great.
1.

There are 4 Early horses in this 7 horse race, and 3 of those are arguably Fighters

Are you getting that from the RS screen or the Original Screen, where you highlighted the Fractions. By the way, those highlighted numbers in that screen
do they have a track variant on them, is it raw numbers, that will be different
from track to track.

2.

Have any of the 3 horses returning after 100+ days off shown they've been able to win first back off such a layoff? (NO). Are they compromised? (YES) In other words, are there any negatives to mitigate that they will perform just as well as they did in their chosen pacelines?

Yes, I didn't follow FTL 90 days and I know that?

3.

The Early horses can ALL match each others' Fraction 1 times, causing some of them to try to exert more energy to attain their preferred lead position than they can spare (and especially the #3 and #6 who are still getting back into shape).

The 3 and 6 are still getting back in shape, is it because there last line, that is their 1st line back and they could not finish

[HTML][The OTE horse who runs positionally closest to the fastest pace is the #5. It IS a contender. For all the foregoing reasons, I make the #6 a not-for-win contender - PLUS, it will only pay us 5/2 or 2-1 if it wins despite the drawbacks it faces.
/HTML]
I understand this, If it was a snake it would of bit me

Also, how do you tag a non contender, I use the ITM for that

Thanks for all for taking the time to post and thanks Ted

[Segwin]

Originally Posted by CaptDon100

Also, how do you tag a non contender, I use the ITM for that

Do not check Win or ITM to get a Non-Contender status. ITM checked gives Secondary Contender status.

[Bill V.]

Hi Ted

Looking at your screen shot

Since the 3 and 6 are Secondary contenders
and the 2 is a Non contender

Is RDSS just calculating the 1 5 7 and 8
as the only 4 horse's in the contenders BLBL ?

In Validator If you hid the 3 6 and 2
Validator's BLBL would calculate the
race with just those horse ( 1 5 7 8 )

I don't have the card or know your config settings si I can't try this myself,
But if you just did not enter a line for horse
3, 6 and 2 would the BLBL be the same
as what you show here?

[borodin]

I'll give this race a try as well.

#1 P with the flexibility to run E Since its last race is off a layoff, I can expect it to improve today and can use a previous pace line. The second line back is okay.

#2 S. Off 141 days, workouts are okay, but its one win is off of a slower pace than today's is projected to be. Non contender. Last line is as good as any.

#3 E to EP. I don't like the horse doing well in the debut, then quitting on a slower pace, and now off 108 days, with no recent workouts. It needs to be left in, because it will probably be a pace factor. It's last line is acceptable.

#4 is scratched

#5 S. Last race can be excused, because it got bumped (trip) and was at a mile. If you saw the replay, the horse inside of it came out on it at the break, and it cost the horse a few lengths. I'll use the second pace line.

#6 E if a contender. Never got involved last time and then off 131 days. On a similar layoff, it ran back-pack the entire race. Workouts are slow. I don't see why it would be a pace factor today. Using last race.

#7 E. Pace factor. Use last line.

#8 S (at sprint). Last race was first off of over 6 months. Workouts are dull, suggesting that it isn't ready for prime time yet. Will use the last line.

Here's the raw shot of the horses' pace lines:



Next is to find the probable pace of the race. #7 is fastest to the quarter with a 22.0. #1 and #3 are both 45.8 to the half. Highlighting those lines gives us this:

The first thing I notice is that there will be three horses on mainly equal terms at the half mile: #1, #3, and #7. #1 can run as a presser, so we'll change to its third paceline back. We now have this:



Looking at this matchup, we can easily eliminate #2 and #8, neither of which gained any significant ground against the same pace. #6 did face a faster pace, but there's still the issue of it being off four months, and its competitive races have been run as E or EP. It goes to secondary status. It looks like #7 will survive the early pace matchup better than 3, so 7 goes to secondary and 3 to non-contender. Since there are two more-or-less evenly-matched early horses (plus a presser who might cause them to extend further), I'm looking for something OTE (other than early pace).

After categorizing the horses, we have this screen:



#2 is off-screen as a non-contender

#1 will get first run at the leaders, but notice that it was beaten 8 lengths at the finish, admittedly in a fast time. #5 made up some decent ground from the second call to the finish. If #1 gets sucked into the early duel, #5 will be the lone decent OTE horse.

Looking at the BL/BL screen, we see:



BL/BL rates them about equal.

With #1 at 5-1 and #5 at 10-1, there's probably room to play them both. As it happened, they finished 1/2.

[CaptDon100]

Thanks Segwin