Tampa Sunday 3rd Race

[tfm]

Originally Posted by RichieP

If I told you how many times in the last 3 days I ran 2nd big bro you nor anyone else would believe me.

I initially wanted to discuss this with you when reading your thread about The Hat's suggested method of play: spot bets at > 2:1.

I would believe you, as I typically go through the same thing. For example, out of my last 17 plays, I've had 4 winners and 6 seconds ---3 of them by photos. (In fact, I'm on a streak where I've lost > 10 photos in a row.)
All of the place prices were greater than $4, with more than half being over $6.

The problem here is that you're making good picks, your horses are running but you're not getting rewarded (assuming you're not playing exotics or to place)

This phenomenon was correlated nicely, by someone on another forum, to the about average hitter running into poor luck when his line drives are hit directly at someone. The argument being that once you reach a certain level of skill, the only luck you typically have is of the bad sort. Makes sense, too.

Two possible options, it seems to me.

1) just keep plugging away and make your selections even more airtight

2) play more exotics (like the masses); alot easier using 4 horses in an 8 horse field and hitting something, rather than banking on a single horse and getting skunked by bad luck.

[hdcper]

Nice job, Gentleman!

Hdcper

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by tfm

I initially wanted to discuss this with you when reading your thread about The Hat's suggested method of play: spot bets at > 2:1.

I would believe you, as I typically go through the same thing. For example, out of my last 17 plays, I've had 4 winners and 6 seconds ---3 of them by photos. (In fact, I'm on a streak where I've lost > 10 photos in a row.)
All of the place prices were greater than $4, with more than half being over $6.

Morning John
I spoke with Hat yesterday afternoon around 3. At that point(including carrying races over from Saturday) I was 3 wins from my last 17 win bets. The 14 losers ALL had run second.NEVER in 18 months since learning some matchup concepts had I had such a run on live horses. NEVER. Win prices were 9/2,2/1,5/1.

Jim's reply was to laugh out loud! He told me that it lasts for a day or 2 then goes away. Said there is no explanation for it.

He just told me to add up the win mutuals. When I did and told him he said while I was losing it was something that a 9 or 10 buck horse would get me back to level ground. He said "that's the advantage of 1 horse betting Rich.When you have a bad spell you don't get buried behind the 8 ball".

John I don't bet place. I know for some it is good strategy. For me it's kinda like kissing your sister man. It might feel good but deep down you know it's wrong.

Anyhow the streak is over thank goodness.Ended yesterday afternoon.

[Jonathan Steele]

Richie,

Hello. I would not complain too much. Instead, I would exploit your second place-itis in the exotics, specificially Trifectas and Superfectas.

Have a great day!

Jon

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by shoeless

Richie, wondered how you threw out the 7,I went to it's 2nd race back where it came off a 45.3.Jeff

Jeff,
Just seeing this now.Using 5ths of a second for evaluating here(My Rdss screen shot shows 10ths for clarity)

I used that same 2nd line back to evaluate. That pace of race was 22.2-45.3 and he lost BOTH positions and beaten lengths from 1c to 2c. What the Hat taught me about this has been written about months and months ago in the Hat Check. VERY negative sign.

TODAY'S pace I projected at 22.0-45.1 FASTER than what he faced. If he went backwards against slower what does he do today? He's dead meat big bro unless the entire field comes to a stop in the stretch.

[shoeless]

Richie,HMMM very interesting.Now that Im looking at his pp's I notice he is one of those one run horses that Hat and Doc would warn people not to play.I was looking from the stretch call to the finish on him.Can you direct me where to look for this in the hat check area?Thanks Jeff

[VoodooFan]

Originally Posted by RichieP

Jim's reply was to laugh out loud! He told me that it lasts for a day or 2 then goes away. Said there is no explanation for it.

He just told me to add up the win mutuals. When I did and told him he said while I was losing it was something that a 9 or 10 buck horse would get me back to level ground. He said "that's the advantage of 1 horse betting Rich.When you have a bad spell you don't get buried behind the 8 ball".

That's a good one. This should be in the psychology of The MatchUp. This should be re-instated in the future in HAT CHECK , somewhere. Never heard this perspective before.

Originally Posted by RichieP

John I don't bet place. I know for some it is good strategy. For me it's kinda like kissing your sister man. It might feel good but deep down you know it's wrong.

LOL.. 'Bout fell out my chair laughing my azz off!! I bet'cha THE HAT feels that way, also. Probably even MORE so.
Now that's funny stuff!! Gonna be laughin all day long on that one.

I believe Mr. Bradshaw's philosophy , whether agreed upon or not , is that if
you are backing a horse up 2nd , you are admitting you do not understand
the race for which you are handicapping.

VoodooFan

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by shoeless

Richie,HMMM very interesting.Now that Im looking at his pp's I notice he is one of those one run horses that Hat and Doc would warn people not to play.I was looking from the stretch call to the finish on him.Can you direct me where to look for this in the hat check area?Thanks Jeff

Big bro
Go to post #19 in the 8 month update thread ok? This was posted almost exactly a year ago.
========================================================
Quoting from that post here please:
"Beaten Lenghts:
I want to lay out the few areas where beaten lenghts ARE important to the Hat and CAN and SHOULD be used to evaluate both a horse and a potential SPOT PLAY situation.


2) When a horse loses BOTH position and beaten lenghts between the 1st and 2nd calls this is a strong indication THAT pace is one he can NOT handle."
========================================================


Here is a link to the thread Jeff ok? I hope this helps:
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthr...?t=1951&page=2

[tfm]

Originally Posted by VoodooFan

I believe Mr. Bradshaw's philosophy , whether agreed upon or not , is that if
you are backing a horse up 2nd , you are admitting you do not understand
the race for which you are handicapping.

VoodooFan

On face value, this make sense. Of course, it'd be beyond debate if the best horse always won the race. The problem, of course, is that the best LOSES more often than it wins. This is part of the game, and not really an issue if you're betting 4:1 shots or so. It does become an issue, however, if you bet longshots and a poor ride or bad luck gets you beat on a 30:1 shot.

I've been experimenting betting ONLY win lately, and will stay with it, no matter what. In the past I've played win only < 8:1 and win/place for odds
> 8:1. Surprisingly, my ROI for place was only nominally lower overall than that for win.

Some of us are just not very lucky people and there are just so many photos one can lose before (temporarily) losing confidence. Cashing a few $10+ place bets goes a long way sometimes.

Originally Posted by tfm

there are just so many photos one can lose before (temporarily) losing confidence. Cashing a few $10+ place bets goes a long way sometimes.

Extremely valid point in my opinion. We are not machines and the confidence thing you write of is very real.

Also place betting I am sure for some is also profitable in addition to the psych benefits of cashing tickets on live horses one has selected