chuckg - October Learn to Win

[chuckg]

Usually, it goes against good practice to bet on a favorite. The 4 horse was the 9/5 ML favorite.

Here are the last two lines and the result of the last race which he lost. The last race was a tandem with the 12 horse Brenda winning by a nose. (paying $22 no less)

Brenda was not in today's lineup.

I've attached my original workup of that race at the bottom.



I was looking for a similar horse to come from close behind and win today's race and did not find one. Also, I was looking for a competing early horse to wear down the 4 enough for one of the late horses or the router to close and did not find one. I was concerned about the 2 being that horse, but the running line does not show it.

In real life the 2 ran ahead of the 4 all the way until the last.

[chuckg]

$25 on 5 to Win/Place
$50 on 6 to Place

Hiding the favorites and taking the best early and best late.

[chuckg]

$25 to Win/Place on 5
$50 to Place on 8

The two earlies lose when they are in the same race. Taking the two best OTE closest to the pace that have shown the ability to gain into the stretch. Place betting based on ML odds.

[chuckg]

A blue star for the place horse?



Often the lead early that everyone in the park knows will not win manages to hang on for place.

Big payout was caused by the favorite taking all the money and this horse winning.



My initial impression when scrolling the race for the first time was that this was the horse.

It has the perfect running line positionally and the line jumped off the page at me. After adding lines for all horses I saw that the 2 ran those positions against the slowest pace of all and threw her out.

[Bill V.]

Nice Blue Star Place bet

That hit also gets you back into the bonus
Thank You for posting tthe winners past performance
You are very good Sartin Messenger once again

Good for you

[chuckg]

Place pools at Calder are way too generous today.

$8.60 to Place for the 8 horse.

Same way as race 1. All the money went to the horse that came in 4th.



And a 10 to 1 ML wins.

Second race in a row where the winner (9) was not one of my contenders. Line 4 would have been the winning line. But, who would use it when Line 1 shows he couldn't handle the pace of the two earlies and line 4 is even slower than that?

[pktruckdriver]

Congragulations of your 1st place finish this month, awesome job, and thanks for participating in the tourney to help teach others,this is what it's all about here, teaching and learning. Your Match-up skills are fantastic, and I would love to learn your decision making skills of winning Match-up handicapping plays, if you are willing to share them with me