Good ex Hit R2 TDN 8-12 - Pace and Cap

Lt1 · 08-12-2023, 01:19 PM

Despite a small field of 6 caught this nice ex in R2 @TDN.
My picks
TDN 8-12
Sat, Aug 12 at 11:59 AM

TRK GOOD
R1 2-3-1-4
R2 5-2-7-1 LS6
R3 6-5-4-2 LS3 WEAK MDNS 4 FTS
R4 5-2-1-6
R5 6-2-1-7 LS1 2 YR OLDS
R6 6-1-4-3 LS8
R7 6-1-2-8 2YR OLDS
R8 6-7-1-9
R9 1-7-9-5
GOOD LUCK
Tim
The winning ticket.
Aug 12 12:36:31 Complete Thistledown 2 Exacta $2.00 2,5,7/1,2,5,7 $18.00 $75.00 $57.00
Winning Combo
7[$10.00],2[$11.80]
Screen Shots
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Name: Screenshot (587).jpg
Views: 96
Size: 142.5 KB

Name: Screenshot (588).jpg
Views: 99
Size: 143.0 KB

The winner tiered 2 BL/BL & 3 RX, the place horse tiered 4th on both. Keeping records is a big help when making bets.
Tim

57viking · 08-13-2023, 07:50 AM

Tim, why did you demote the 6 ?

Jim

Lt1 · 08-13-2023, 08:43 AM

Hi Jim. It had a recency defect, a running line defect, its' %med was too low to win @dist. wrong running style and it was a 7yr going up in class after a loss.
Tim

57viking · 08-13-2023, 09:11 PM

Thanks Tim ……I struggle to degrade horses that are in the top tiers using their latest line. I need to look more at my model for that surface/ distance.

Lt1 · 08-13-2023, 11:52 PM

Anytime Jim. Once you get the confidence upgrading or downgrading a horse it becomes second nature. You will get bit once in awhile but as long as you are right more then you are wrong it's ok.
Tim

08-12-2023, 01:19 PM	#1
Lt1 Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Valley Stream NY Posts: 9,163	Good ex Hit R2 TDN 8-12 Despite a small field of 6 caught this nice ex in R2 @TDN. My picks TDN 8-12 Sat, Aug 12 at 11:59 AM TRK GOOD R1 2-3-1-4 R2 5-2-7-1 LS6 R3 6-5-4-2 LS3 WEAK MDNS 4 FTS R4 5-2-1-6 R5 6-2-1-7 LS1 2 YR OLDS R6 6-1-4-3 LS8 R7 6-1-2-8 2YR OLDS R8 6-7-1-9 R9 1-7-9-5 GOOD LUCK Tim The winning ticket. Aug 12 12:36:31 Complete Thistledown 2 Exacta $2.00 2,5,7/1,2,5,7 $18.00 $75.00 $57.00 Winning Combo 7[$10.00],2[$11.80] Screen Shots The winner tiered 2 BL/BL & 3 RX, the place horse tiered 4th on both. Keeping records is a big help when making bets. Tim __________________ Trust but verify

08-13-2023, 08:43 AM	#3
Lt1 Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Valley Stream NY Posts: 9,163	Hi Jim. It had a recency defect, a running line defect, its' %med was too low to win @dist. wrong running style and it was a 7yr going up in class after a loss. Tim __________________ Trust but verify

08-13-2023, 11:52 PM	#5
Lt1 Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Valley Stream NY Posts: 9,163	Anytime Jim. Once you get the confidence upgrading or downgrading a horse it becomes second nature. You will get bit once in awhile but as long as you are right more then you are wrong it's ok. Tim __________________ Trust but verify

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08-13-2023, 07:50 AM	#2
57viking Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2020 Location: Vermont Posts: 134	Tim, why did you demote the 6 ? Jim

08-13-2023, 09:11 PM	#4
57viking Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2020 Location: Vermont Posts: 134	Thanks Tim ……I struggle to degrade horses that are in the top tiers using their latest line. I need to look more at my model for that surface/ distance.