Review of Jim Bradshaw's post on Matchup

[lone speed]

The Matchup teaching forum is closed now.....as I was reading through some of the old posts, this specific thread by Jim Bradshaw caught my attention....I cannot stress how important the thread is....Bradshaw's 25 words sentence says so much for those who want to grasp the importance of the early matchup....

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1737



" For every fifth of a second faster the horse has to run at the start, it costs two-fifths of a second at the finish.

So this statement according to Bradshaw was validated by Huey Mahl's physics proof...let's see if this statement by Bradshaw can be conceptualized in an equation that we can use to apply the Match up theory at its simplicity....

Let's give it a shot.....shall we....

start...where is the start of the race......

First call....

Where is the finish??? at the final time of the race.....

If horse has to run one-fifth faster at the first call, it will lose two fifths at the final time....

Let's use a front runner to make this simple...

22.0 45.0 and 1:10 for final time...0 0 0 0 beaten lengths at all calls.....


horse has to run 1st call in 21.4 what will happen in the matchup???

Well, according to Bradshaw and proven by Huey Mahl...

This will be the revised (virtual line) race fractions...

21.4 44.4 and a final time of 12....that's right...1:10 and two fifths...

We may not master Bradshaw's natural matchup abilities but we have the computer program and this simple equation to apply the matchup......

This equation will explain why certain horses that rank very well off a huge 3rd fraction but from slower %percent median and 2nd call fractions.....

and why final times will not be the main factors in a matchup....

two horses....

Horse A runs 22.0 45.0 and 1:10 for 6furlongs

Horse B runs 21.4 44.4 and 12 for 6 furlongs


In an isolated matchup, these two will run in a dead-heat at the finish line...

Looking forward to more contributions on this topic...



Good skills

[lone speed]

Let’s continue to analyze this statement by Jim “the Hat” Bradshaw because it has so much impact and it will change the way we look at matchups in races….In every race, there is a matchup so this can be apply to every single race.. but we do not have to apply “adjustments to every single race…The key is to know when……Now…this is a public forum….and I am well aware that Doc Sartin used to condemn those purveyors who copy his concepts and pace formulas and called them their own…..anyways….moving on…we will focus on the general concepts that Bradshaw already published in his matchup manual…..

This concept by Bradshaw is what the Greeks called a “Palindrome.”…..Now what the heck are we talking about?????,,,,This concept works forward and backwards…

This palindrome, called the Sator Square, consists of an sentence written in Latin: "Sator Arepo Tenet Opera Rotas" ("The sower Arepo holds works wheels").

Focus on the Latin words….it reads forward and backward……..

Bradshaw wrote:

For every fifth of a second faster the horse has to run at the start, it costs two-fifths of a second at the finish.

We already discussed what happens when a horse is forced to run a faster first fraction-the horse will lose two-fifths in his 3rd fraction….

Now…let’s focus what happens when a lone early or an early horse is allowed to run slower than he previously ran in his past races at the first call…

Example:

Horse AAA ran 21.3 44.3 110.3 0 0 0 0 beaten lengths at all points of calls….

So what happens in today’s matchup when there are no contenders that can run under 22.0 for the first fraction and stay up close or fight with Horse AAA????

The jockey (most of time---one may want to research this stat but I can assure you that most of the public will not focus on this concept so most of the time, this Horse AAA will be overlooked in the wagering pool since most are focus on the final times that they can see in print in the past performances or the “assigned” speed figures. Most will not do the legwork or put in the time required to analyze the matchups…..Yes, I am aware that there are those who use expensive speed figures like Thorograph….They will get their niche of races where the early matchups does not come into play…)

The jockey on Horse AAA can slow down the first fraction to about 21.4 or only one tick slower for the first fraction to conserve energy for the final fraction----what happens……

More likely, this will be the likely outcome…

Previous race of Horse AAA 21.3 44.3 110.3 0 0 0 0 at all points of call

In today’s race Horse AAA 21.4 44.4 110.1 If this horse is allow to run a slower first fraction, then he can run a final time of 110.1 and not the 13 that the public sees….

This is the power of Bradshaw’s 25 words statement…..If one applies the matchup concept…one can catch the higher mutuels or be on the right horse…


Sartin used to lecture about betting the 3rd or even the 4th ranked V/DC horses on the readouts….or on Bottom Line readouts….Now what if we go back and look at some of those races, what can we can find out about those 3rd or 4th rank horses on V/DC horses……?

That some of these horses were #1 on E/ep but ranked lower in the V/DC readouts due to their slower 3rd fractions…..

Disclaimer….this is a concept that one must be patient to apply, it will not solve all of one’s wants in this endeavor…it is just another arsenal of the Sartin/(Bradshaw) methodology…..

[Capcondo]

Thanks for posting what pace can do in the matchup Lone Speed.

Here is an example from last Sunday at the Fair Grounds. I'm sorry I don't have a printout of the horse's PP. I have attached the charts from Cheetah Pants's first race (Dec 14th) and the race last week which was the third race. The second race was in the slop. It was not a bad race but I decided to use the maiden win on Dec. 14th to evaluate the horse.





In the maiden win on Dec 14th, Cheetah pants had the following running line:

Splits: 21.4 45.4 59.0 1:13.2
Position and Lengths: 2 hd 1 hd 1 1.5L 1 5.5L

What attracted me to the horse was the lack of early speed among the other entrants and Cheetah Pants ability to fight at the first two calls.

In the win last Sunday, the running line looked like this:

Splits: 22.1 46.0 58.1 1:11.2
Position and Lengths: 1 1L 1 4L 1 2.5L 1 .5L

So, Cheetah Pants didn't have to run as fast as in the maiden win and didn't have to fight. Using a 1/5 second at the first call being worth 2/5 second in the final time, the final time would then be 1:12.3. This is 6/5 of a second slower than she actually ran on Feb. 10th.

Two things to consider here. Fighting through the first two calls expended a great deal of energy in her maiden win. She didn't have to expend this energy in the race last Sunday since she was loose on the lead. Also, the maiden win was her first race. These factors account for the 6/5 second difference IMHO.

When I analyze situations like this, I follow Hat's and Richie's advice and never consider final time unless it is very slow or the horse did not run well. I don't carry my analysis past the stretch call.

The effects of a horse fighting at any stage of the race are covered in the 8 month update in the Hat Check Section. Well worth reading over and over again.

BTW, after analyzing the race and selecting her, I didn't put a dime on her. She paid $25.60

Next time.

[lone speed]

Capcondo...

Thanks for putting up the race and example...

Great point about reviewing and reviewing the 8 month update post by Richie..

On a side note...when I was studying form cycles and patterns of development from Thorograph.. I came across maidens that jump up ten lengths from their first maiden win....one example was Valiant Nature trained by Ron Mcanally....I believe it was from a two year mile turf maiden win right into the Hollywood Furturity stakes win....

I do not use Thorograph to attack the races....but I am well aware of form cycles...it is best sum up as an art of interpretations....each users will come up with a different analysis of the same sheets..

[Dorianmode]

Just a quick note for those that either did not know "The Hat", or never had the pleasure of his wisdom in person, or watch him "work", (if you could call it that). He would sit with the Form in front of him, and look, (eyeball the horses). I never saw him use a computer, (he may have, I don't know). After a few minutes, he would look up, and say "this one, and that one". How did he do it ? The answer is, he was a track coach. And just as was posted here in the other posts, he understood, intimately, the expendature of energy in running a race. First, for all the kids he used to coach, then he translated it to horses. BTW, Huey's classic book, is still available on Amazon, (Race is Pace). If you can't afford it, it's a bit "pricey", email me, I'll share my copy.

Also in Follow Up # 2 and 3, Huey did a presentation of what would be a profitable set of data, (results) for a handicapper, under various win percentages and payoff results. It's VERY valuable, if you have never read it. It changed my entire outlook on racing, back when. He was a consultant to many professional gaming/wagering people and organizations. I have put all the numbers and formulas Huey presents in those Follow Ups into a spread sheet, and put it into a gmail account we can share. Ted and Barb and Rich Mathie are going to look at it, preview it, and maybe suggest a few alterations, and as soon as that is done, I will give access to the shared account to everyone, or just convert it into an Excel sheet and post it here. You can do the numbers from the Follow Ups, yourself, but they are a bit onerous/cumbersome to put together. If anyone doesn't want to wait, send me a note, I'll share it now, as part of the preview.

[Bill V.]

Mr Bradshaw WORKED very hard

He did not just start out by eye ball scan. I did learn from Jim
and he did just use the form but he was very firm in his lessons that
I use a computer
If you had read the original Match Up manual (red)
you would have known he spent many long hours
entering lines into Sartin Methodology programs, after all going to the races
when he began in the early 80's for him involved driving or flying hundreds of miles He had plenty of time to PRACTICE
His biggest way to learn was to chart horses

This is from the Paceline Manual