Penn Race 2 1/10/2012 - Pace and Cap

Aldens_dad · 01-10-2013, 04:37 PM

My new years resolution was to Bet smart in 2013 with that being said I have not made a bet in 2013!!! I have been using RDSS for almost a year and have had success but its been intermittent. Maybe the issue is not selecting the right lines or just not knowing enough about horse racing. I have been reading the teaching files and thought what a great way to get a little help or feedback on my selections.

I am having problems posting my screenshots but heres the scenario. This is a 5K claiming race where it looks like there is one early horse that could wire this field. But according to the segments screen this horse is not even a contender. I am talking about horse #1

Aldens_dad · 01-10-2013, 04:51 PM

Rebooted computer and screenshots loaded fine. I have comments on each screenshot trying to explain what I was thinking and what left me scratching my head.

rmath · 01-10-2013, 05:37 PM

The #1 #4 & #8 are scratched.
Rerun the race and post again.
I am running Pen tonight also.
rmath

Bill V. · 01-10-2013, 06:59 PM

Here is the winner and the Result

The winner came back to its plus races form and sat just behind the 5 horse

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Name: here is the winner.PNG
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For The Lead · 01-11-2013, 04:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aldens_dad

My new years resolution was to Bet smart in 2013 with that being said I have not made a bet in 2013!!! I have been using RDSS for almost a year and have had success but its been intermittent. Maybe the issue is not selecting the right lines or just not knowing enough about horse racing. I have been reading the teaching files and thought what a great way to get a little help or feedback on my selections.

I am having problems posting my screenshots but heres the scenario. This is a 5K claiming race where it looks like there is one early horse that could wire this field. But according to the segments screen this horse is not even a contender. I am talking about horse #1

Without getting involved in reviewing the entire race and in spite of the fact that the #1 horse was scratched, I'll just address the two horses you centered on, the #1 and #12.

Take a look at the first call history of each horse.
Do you really think the #12 horse is going to be 14 lengths in front of the #1 horse at the first call, especially when you consider the post they are breaking from and that there are other horses in between them that will also try for the lead?

You already made the point of "class", so I don't have to expand on that.

With regard to "RC" (race class), the race class assigned to each race is based on "strength of field", not claiming price or condition. This is a Trackmaster calculation.

As you review every horse, you should make a visual inspection of how the horse runs and change the "RS" label. Do NOT accept what the program provides unless you agree. Do you own work in this regard. In this case, the #12 horse is a "P" with "1" Quirin Speed point. On the other hand, the #1 is an "E" with "7" Quirin Speed Points. Again, do you really think the #12 is going to be 14 lengths in front of the #12?
This "visual" inspection, by you, is more important than the E/L sticks when it comes to where you can expect each horse to be positionally.Many horses expend their energy early, but DO NOT RUN EARLY.

Finally, the #12 horse had just one win from 19 starts last year and is just 3 for 31 lifetime, while the #1 had 3 wins from just 11 starts last year and is 3 for 14 lifetime. This simply tells you the #1 wins more often on a percentage basis than the #12. Horses that do not win very often are usually bad bets.

Aldens_dad · 01-11-2013, 10:31 AM

I see what your saying FTL and I didn't have time to rework this race with the scratches but I did have the winner in my top 6 and he was the last one to go before I had my top 5.

Looking at the 12 horse again there is no way he will be 14 lengths ahead of anybody at the first call. I have to realize that the program is not always right and just go with the visual evidence that is presented to me in the program.

I understand what your saying about RC and strength of horses not just conditions of the race.

I really do appreciate everyone's time for posting.

01-10-2013, 04:51 PM	#2
Aldens_dad Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 102	Screenshots for above race Rebooted computer and screenshots loaded fine. I have comments on each screenshot trying to explain what I was thinking and what left me scratching my head. Attached Images

01-10-2013, 05:37 PM	#3
rmath Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 1,676	Aldens Dad The #1 #4 & #8 are scratched. Rerun the race and post again. I am running Pen tonight also. rmath

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01-10-2013, 04:37 PM	#1
Aldens_dad Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 102	Penn Race 2 1/10/2012 My new years resolution was to Bet smart in 2013 with that being said I have not made a bet in 2013!!! I have been using RDSS for almost a year and have had success but its been intermittent. Maybe the issue is not selecting the right lines or just not knowing enough about horse racing. I have been reading the teaching files and thought what a great way to get a little help or feedback on my selections. I am having problems posting my screenshots but heres the scenario. This is a 5K claiming race where it looks like there is one early horse that could wire this field. But according to the segments screen this horse is not even a contender. I am talking about horse #1

01-10-2013, 06:59 PM	#4
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	Pass Here is the winner and the Result The winner came back to its plus races form and sat just behind the 5 horse

01-11-2013, 10:31 AM	#6
Aldens_dad Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 102	I see what your saying FTL and I didn't have time to rework this race with the scratches but I did have the winner in my top 6 and he was the last one to go before I had my top 5. Looking at the 12 horse again there is no way he will be 14 lengths ahead of anybody at the first call. I have to realize that the program is not always right and just go with the visual evidence that is presented to me in the program. I understand what your saying about RC and strength of horses not just conditions of the race. I really do appreciate everyone's time for posting.