Arlington - June 4th - Page 2 - Pace and Cap

pilot · 06-04-2011, 03:38 PM

Thanks for posting Richie

BJennet · 06-05-2011, 11:17 PM

Thanks for posting this card Richie. I was actually thinking of requesting this track, since, as I'm sure you know, it has one of the lowest % of winning favorites. Also, having described the CA and NY circuits as the best tracks for using the Sartin primary factors, I would describe this as one of the worst, if not the worst, and I rarely play here for that reason. I was hoping that E/L 2.0, which works well at tracks with cheaper races, such as comprise a fair part of the card here, might give a better showing. And although this was a typically bad day for the Sartin Methodology at ARL, E/L 2.0 did do somewhat better. One of the conclusions that I've drawn about the difficulties of this track, is that it features an unusually high percentage of horses with 'gray areas' in what seem on the surface to be 'plain vanilla' races. I'd be interested in hearing from anyone who does well here about their approach to this track and its anomalies.

Cheers,

B Jennet

benzer · 06-07-2011, 07:18 PM

I've only wagered AP a few times recently (used to a lot when I lived near that track). The Sartin methodology does work there, some days are just better than others.

I had a day in May where I had the winner in the top 2 bl/bl 8 of 11, 9 of 11 top 3. Another day not so good 3 winners out of 7 races.

My line selections are pretty much standard best of the last three comparable, keeping an eye out to not use a line that may be a anomaly or a race where the horse really did not participate other than being there.

I did wager on the card that Richie posted (Thanks Richie) but I did not download the card I just went with what was posted. I did not consider wagering the turf races because I've never tried using best of all turf lines showing. I pick lines the same for all races.

As it turned out I only wagered one race on the card, the 2nd. As posted the readout showed 8 3 1 10 on bl/bl. The 10 being a binder improver. Since the odds were so high on the 8 & 10 and I didn't trust that the 3 would lose I went with the other pools as the Doc has talked about.

Bets: 8 & 10 place & show. Results: 3 10 8. The 10 pays 23.80 & 9.00 the 8 pays 5.80 to show. With just $2 wagers a person would have picked up over $30 profit. Since I made my money for the day I just watched the rest of the races at AP, I was mainly working CD that day.

Anyway I find races with lower class and gray areas can be profitable but sometimes you have to look deeper than the win pool. Of course with to many gray areas I just pass.

Maybe someone else will post about AP I have not been there in person for quite awhile. I was there before it burnt down and I was there wagering from tents while it was rebuilt. The place used to be a real first class operation, even keeping an employee in the bathroom full time to make sure you had what you needed and everything was clean.

BJennet · 06-10-2011, 01:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by benzer

I've only wagered AP a few times recently (used to a lot when I lived near that track). The Sartin methodology does work there, some days are just better than others.

I had a day in May where I had the winner in the top 2 bl/bl 8 of 11, 9 of 11 top 3. Another day not so good 3 winners out of 7 races.

My line selections are pretty much standard best of the last three comparable, keeping an eye out to not use a line that may be a anomaly or a race where the horse really did not participate other than being there.

I did wager on the card that Richie posted (Thanks Richie) but I did not download the card I just went with what was posted. I did not consider wagering the turf races because I've never tried using best of all turf lines showing. I pick lines the same for all races.

As it turned out I only wagered one race on the card, the 2nd. As posted the readout showed 8 3 1 10 on bl/bl. The 10 being a binder improver. Since the odds were so high on the 8 & 10 and I didn't trust that the 3 would lose I went with the other pools as the Doc has talked about.

Bets: 8 & 10 place & show. Results: 3 10 8. The 10 pays 23.80 & 9.00 the 8 pays 5.80 to show. With just $2 wagers a person would have picked up over $30 profit. Since I made my money for the day I just watched the rest of the races at AP, I was mainly working CD that day.

Anyway I find races with lower class and gray areas can be profitable but sometimes you have to look deeper than the win pool. Of course with to many gray areas I just pass.

Maybe someone else will post about AP I have not been there in person for quite awhile. I was there before it burnt down and I was there wagering from tents while it was rebuilt. The place used to be a real first class operation, even keeping an employee in the bathroom full time to make sure you had what you needed and everything was clean.

Hi benzer,

Appreciate the post, but I don't see anything here relevant to the anomalies of AP. I'm glad you had a win there the other day, but I'm sure you realize that the results of a day, a week, or even a month are meaningless in terms of their significance. As far as playing, it's looks like in Race 2 you were ignoring Doc's good advice, by not playing high-odds horses that are ranked #2 and #3 on the BL/BL to win - that's how wagercapping works. You wouldn't have won this day, or the majority of the times you make such a bet, but the big wins more than make up for the losses. But you did follow some of Doc's bad advice, or just your own inclinations, in betting place and show - sucker bets more than 95% of the time. Since I know so many people play this way as a hedge, I'll try to do a separate post on this when I can. For the moment, I would direct anyone who's interested to Dick Mitchell's 'Commonsense Betting', in which he lays out the fallacies in public reasoning behind place and show betting. Jeff Platt, for my money the smartest handicapper now active, has also discussed this subject at length, and although, I don't think he has anything up on his website at the moment about it, I'm sure anyone who drops him a line about it, will get at least a quick response from him, as I always have.

Cheers,

B Jennet

Bill V. · 06-10-2011, 07:46 AM

hello B Jennet

I feel that benzer made a bet that Doc would have
Doc was for Place and Show betting
Not so much betting the win horse to place or show
but bettting the horse to place and show when it shows all the
readouts of a win horse (top 3 VDC)
Doc used all the pools.
I would say a exacta box of his to 3 VDC horses would have also been included here
Im sure there are many better ways to bet than what Doc suggested.
and Doc also bet longer odds horses across the board.
I read benzers post this way ,
Benzer followed docs guide lines and made his own decision based on the 3horse strong possiblitiy of winning and it paid
off

Thanks
Bill V.
Austin TX

rmath · 06-10-2011, 10:41 AM

BJBennet,
You stated that New Pace did better than RDSS (sartin) but if you look at the top 4 Vdc and compare them to New Pace you get about the same results.
Vdc had 7 wins and 4 exactas
New Pace had 6 wins and 4 exactas.
I know that the results for one day do not really prove anything ,but I felt your statement was a little harsh regarding RDSS.
rmath

BJennet · 06-10-2011, 03:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rmath

BJBennet,
You stated that New Pace did better than RDSS (sartin) but if you look at the top 4 Vdc and compare them to New Pace you get about the same results.
Vdc had 7 wins and 4 exactas
New Pace had 6 wins and 4 exactas.
I know that the results for one day do not really prove anything ,but I felt your statement was a little harsh regarding RDSS.
rmath

Hi rmath,

I was using the using BL/BL as the benchmark for comparison, since Ted has frequently described that as the key readout, and it offers the advantage of projecting probabilities. By this measure RDSS was 5/10 on wins, E/L 2.0 - 6/10. As far as exactas go, RDSS was 3/10, and E/L 2.0 -5/10.

If we're going to be continuing to be making these kind of comparisons, which I think is useful in identifying strengths and weaknesses, then I believe that VDC, which you used here, is questionable due to the high frequency of ties. If we look at the AP R. 3 here, which I assume you chalked up as a win for RDSS, we end up with 6 horses in the top three, including ties. Using 6 horses in a race with 7 betting interests, isn't really 'picking' a race. I assume the same reasoning applies to R.4, as well. If we're going to be picking the top 4 as a basis for comparison, I think VDC presents problems.

As far as being tough on RDSS, all I said was that, in my experience over the years, it has never as worked as well at AP as it does at other tracks. That's not much of a criticism of RDSS. That I didn't get any response from anyone who does well at this track (I think my question implied some long-range experience), may speak for itself.

Cheers,

B Jennet

BJennet · 06-10-2011, 04:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bill V.

hello B Jennet

I feel that benzer made a bet that Doc would have
Doc was for Place and Show betting
Not so much betting the win horse to place or show
but bettting the horse to place and show when it shows all the
readouts of a win horse (top 3 VDC)
Doc used all the pools.
I would say a exacta box of his to 3 VDC horses would have also been included here
Im sure there are many better ways to bet than what Doc suggested.
and Doc also bet longer odds horses across the board.
I read benzers post this way ,
Benzer followed docs guide lines and made his own decision based on the 3horse strong possiblitiy of winning and it paid
off

Thanks
Bill V.
Austin TX

Hi Bill,

I'm going to do a separate longer post on the negative impact of place and show betting, but I am aware that Doc was a proponent of these bets.

Re this one race though, don't simple wagercapping rules imply a win bet on any double-digit horse in the top 3 BL/BL? And as you say, at those odds, why not at least a 3-horse exacta box or, the way I usually play, the favorite on top of the two high-odds horses? The box would have produced a 10-1 profit, and the exacta key, a 30-1 profit. benzer's betting scheme returned 7/2. Obviously people are free to bet as they wish, and I'm happy this poster made money in this race, but in the long term, anyone who plays this way is leaving a great deal of money on the table.

Cheers,

B Jennet

rmath · 06-10-2011, 05:16 PM

I was aware that there are ties in using VDC ,but I have always used it ever since Doc first made it available. In races where there are ties below the top 2
I usually use the odds to separate any ties in the third and fourth places.
I also always get my plays down to 5 or less horses.I do appreciate your response, and I knew at the time I was opening myself up for criticism.
Good luck in all your handicapping.

benzer · 06-11-2011, 08:52 PM

Hi BJBennet,

I would have posted sooner but I had a once a year family reunion to attend. Family is always first.

I don't bet exactas. Only win and sometimes place and show, also doubles and pick 3's. Depends on how I feel the race is going to run and where I think I can justify my risk of investment.

In your post you said the Sartin methodology did not work at AP. All I did was point out that it does.

Recent:

AP 6/8: 6 of 10 top 2 BL/BL including 3 double digit winners.

AP 6/10: 5 of 9 top 2 BL/BL including a 69.20 winner and a daily double of $222, and $512 and a pick 3 for $870

I'm not a database handicapper, I check a couple of recent cards to see if the track is running good to my line selections and if so I go for it.

Background:

I realize there are many good experienced handicappers here, but I'm not new to the game. Been doing this since I was 18 and am about to turn 50. I have a Uncle that is 80 that owned and trained horses that taught me how to read the conditions, so I have a little bit of experience.

Supported myself for 2 years wagering only the daily double, driving 40 miles + to the Chicago circuit, Arlington, Hawthorn and Sportsmans.

When it comes to wagering a person has to find their comfort level. Which depends on what you're after. Myself I have a goal, earn XXX amount and then quit for the day. It does not matter when I reach my goal, if it is in race 1, I'm done.

Everybody has their own way of doing this, but once you find what works for you, that is where you have to be regardless of any book.

06-05-2011, 11:17 PM	#12
BJennet Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 311	The Chicago Way Thanks for posting this card Richie. I was actually thinking of requesting this track, since, as I'm sure you know, it has one of the lowest % of winning favorites. Also, having described the CA and NY circuits as the best tracks for using the Sartin primary factors, I would describe this as one of the worst, if not the worst, and I rarely play here for that reason. I was hoping that E/L 2.0, which works well at tracks with cheaper races, such as comprise a fair part of the card here, might give a better showing. And although this was a typically bad day for the Sartin Methodology at ARL, E/L 2.0 did do somewhat better. One of the conclusions that I've drawn about the difficulties of this track, is that it features an unusually high percentage of horses with 'gray areas' in what seem on the surface to be 'plain vanilla' races. I'd be interested in hearing from anyone who does well here about their approach to this track and its anomalies. Cheers, B Jennet

06-10-2011, 07:46 AM	#15
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	disagree hello B Jennet I feel that benzer made a bet that Doc would have Doc was for Place and Show betting Not so much betting the win horse to place or show but bettting the horse to place and show when it shows all the readouts of a win horse (top 3 VDC) Doc used all the pools. I would say a exacta box of his to 3 VDC horses would have also been included here Im sure there are many better ways to bet than what Doc suggested. and Doc also bet longer odds horses across the board. I read benzers post this way , Benzer followed docs guide lines and made his own decision based on the 3horse strong possiblitiy of winning and it paid off Thanks Bill V. Austin TX Last edited by Bill V.; 06-10-2011 at 07:49 AM.

06-10-2011, 10:41 AM	#16
rmath Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 1,676	Ap 6/4 BJBennet, You stated that New Pace did better than RDSS (sartin) but if you look at the top 4 Vdc and compare them to New Pace you get about the same results. Vdc had 7 wins and 4 exactas New Pace had 6 wins and 4 exactas. I know that the results for one day do not really prove anything ,but I felt your statement was a little harsh regarding RDSS. rmath

06-10-2011, 05:16 PM	#19
rmath Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 1,676	Bjb I was aware that there are ties in using VDC ,but I have always used it ever since Doc first made it available. In races where there are ties below the top 2 I usually use the odds to separate any ties in the third and fourth places. I also always get my plays down to 5 or less horses.I do appreciate your response, and I knew at the time I was opening myself up for criticism. Good luck in all your handicapping.

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06-04-2011, 03:38 PM	#11
pilot Grade 2 Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 92	Thanks for posting Richie

06-07-2011, 07:18 PM	#13
benzer AlwNW3X Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 49	I've only wagered AP a few times recently (used to a lot when I lived near that track). The Sartin methodology does work there, some days are just better than others. I had a day in May where I had the winner in the top 2 bl/bl 8 of 11, 9 of 11 top 3. Another day not so good 3 winners out of 7 races. My line selections are pretty much standard best of the last three comparable, keeping an eye out to not use a line that may be a anomaly or a race where the horse really did not participate other than being there. I did wager on the card that Richie posted (Thanks Richie) but I did not download the card I just went with what was posted. I did not consider wagering the turf races because I've never tried using best of all turf lines showing. I pick lines the same for all races. As it turned out I only wagered one race on the card, the 2nd. As posted the readout showed 8 3 1 10 on bl/bl. The 10 being a binder improver. Since the odds were so high on the 8 & 10 and I didn't trust that the 3 would lose I went with the other pools as the Doc has talked about. Bets: 8 & 10 place & show. Results: 3 10 8. The 10 pays 23.80 & 9.00 the 8 pays 5.80 to show. With just $2 wagers a person would have picked up over $30 profit. Since I made my money for the day I just watched the rest of the races at AP, I was mainly working CD that day. Anyway I find races with lower class and gray areas can be profitable but sometimes you have to look deeper than the win pool. Of course with to many gray areas I just pass. Maybe someone else will post about AP I have not been there in person for quite awhile. I was there before it burnt down and I was there wagering from tents while it was rebuilt. The place used to be a real first class operation, even keeping an employee in the bathroom full time to make sure you had what you needed and everything was clean.

06-11-2011, 08:52 PM	#20
benzer AlwNW3X Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 49	Hi BJBennet, I would have posted sooner but I had a once a year family reunion to attend. Family is always first. I don't bet exactas. Only win and sometimes place and show, also doubles and pick 3's. Depends on how I feel the race is going to run and where I think I can justify my risk of investment. In your post you said the Sartin methodology did not work at AP. All I did was point out that it does. Recent: AP 6/8: 6 of 10 top 2 BL/BL including 3 double digit winners. AP 6/10: 5 of 9 top 2 BL/BL including a 69.20 winner and a daily double of $222, and $512 and a pick 3 for $870 I'm not a database handicapper, I check a couple of recent cards to see if the track is running good to my line selections and if so I go for it. Background: I realize there are many good experienced handicappers here, but I'm not new to the game. Been doing this since I was 18 and am about to turn 50. I have a Uncle that is 80 that owned and trained horses that taught me how to read the conditions, so I have a little bit of experience. Supported myself for 2 years wagering only the daily double, driving 40 miles + to the Chicago circuit, Arlington, Hawthorn and Sportsmans. When it comes to wagering a person has to find their comfort level. Which depends on what you're after. Myself I have a goal, earn XXX amount and then quit for the day. It does not matter when I reach my goal, if it is in race 1, I'm done. Everybody has their own way of doing this, but once you find what works for you, that is where you have to be regardless of any book.