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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race'

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Old 03-12-2020, 12:51 PM   #11
barryt
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Hi Mitch
Thanx for the useful reply. Yes it is hard to apply and sometimes it does not work but when it does it yields box car prices e.g like #11 in Tam derby.
As an aside the #11 was also TANDEm to the race favourite #7 when the 11 last raced in NOV.so here the adjustment was easy and validated.( but one race doesn’t a season make.)
Another instance where I may use projections is for 2TS. Does Sartin have any recommendation here.
Marc Cramer did lots of study on this which showed an average increase of 15, yes 15, in SR from race 1 to race 2. I cap this at 20 for TPR and distribute it equally between EPR and FFR unless some thing indicates otherwise. I also let the FTS odds be a guide as to wether to credit the 20 or not.
I’d appreciate your, and Bills, comment on this.
Many times there are 3 yrold 2TS coming off long layoffs of 6 months or so then I either give them the grow up points or the 2TS pointsNot both
As an aside would RDSS allow one to make these adjustments?
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Old 03-12-2020, 02:48 PM   #12
Mitch44
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Hi barryt:

Your right that when it works the payoffs are good.

Sartin has no recommendation for 2nd time starters and never got into that kind of stuff.

In fact Sartin never believed in Pars which Qurin stuff was based on and most all Speed Ratings are based on, nor the maturity factor as well, however it is a valid concept. The problem is all horses don't mature at the same rate. Some are precocious while others may mature late or not till their 5 or even 6 yr.'s of age, even when trained by the best.This is why it doesn't work on a consistent basis. If used as a nothing burger one will lose their butt.

Sartin is also correct about Pars and their flaws etc. Sartin's concept of Pars were the horses within the race or Matchup determine Pars. He is correct that Pars people purchase are old and outdated by the time people get them (no immediacy here).That also begs the question if its the same horse. He also is correct that horses don't run to pars but run by the matchup of the race. Sartin was correct also that one of the biggest problems with Pars is that their taken from the POR (pace of the race) rather than by the winners of the race.(POH)

The match up is within the RDSS program based on his belief of Pars. Its much more recent, more accurate than matchers can do by eyeball scans etc. and most matchers don't take it into the 3rd FR,so their essentially speed handicappers.

Taking it into the 3rd FR is best done by the computer program. The 2 for 1 formula just isn't accurate. I.e. for every unit of pace used early will cost the horse 2 unit in the 3rd. FR., the big reason for this is that horses don't all decelerate at the same rate. Therefore its a hap hazard approach at best.

I use odds also for FTS.

I would not use Cramer's adjustments as they seem way out of line and especially with TPR. TPR is based on 1 point per length. Speed Rating are much more and more like 1.5 per length for sprints and 1 per lg. for routes. So for 15 sprint 22.5 & 20 sprint 30 lg.'s A route 15 is 15 lg.s and a 20 SR is 20 lg.'s For a horse to make up those kind beaten lengths in TPR are just unreasonable from race to race. Seldom will you see a horse make up more than 10 lengths, in fact the majority of TPR winners come from the top 3 and horses with a deficit of 10 will seldom be in the top 3. And if ranked 4th or worse you better be getting some odds to make the risk rewarding. Keep records of TPR and you'll see this.

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Old 03-12-2020, 06:04 PM   #13
Bill V.
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Top 5

Hello Mitch

10 points is a very wide spread. In PMTR the cutoff is within 5 points.
If the top horse has a 180 TPR, horses horses with less than a 175 are highly suspect. I only keep horses that are in the top 3 EPR or LPR or both, and within 5 of the top TPR horses
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Old 03-12-2020, 08:29 PM   #14
Mitch44
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I agree Bill but have seen where horses between 5 & 10 of the top figure wins. These are mostly from the matchup and improving horses. Specifically when at least 3 E horses with very high % Med that get into a speed duel. With two E horses many times they don't get into a speed duel because one may not be in form.

These horses tend to show high deceleration and it allows even pace horses and S types to catch the dying speed. Beaten lengths say they should not win but they do. And if the top TPR etc. are out of form their closer and more competitive than appears.

I see more of these types of races at the minor tracks. Horses with sharp deceleration get regulated to the minors because at major tracks they tend to hold their speed longer.

My point to barryt was to keep records and he'll see the top 3 generally win most of the races , it really drops after the top 5 as far as winning ability. Rather than ranks RDSS users or pace cappers should look more at gaps than rankings.

A point of SR and a length in TPR are not the same also. Over 10 lg. especially 15 & 20 are way out of line. I agree that beyond the top 2 LPR seldom win, those are excellent guidelines from PMTR. IMO those guidelines don't allow for even pace horses who generally never meet that criteria and Total Energy horses, although most times they are similar.

How you doing Bill? Well I hope and best of health.

Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 03-12-2020 at 08:32 PM.
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Old 03-13-2020, 01:01 AM   #15
barryt
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Tex Mitch
I didn’t understand every thing but I certainly got the drift.
My point is yes the top 3 TPRs win most of the races but by adding grow up points or 2TS points an otherwise also ran could jump up into the top 3
As it happens I have a perfect example o illustrate this in Friday’s card at OP
R7 the 1 & 4 both raced at SAR in JulyAug with 84. &83 ratings and both tried graded stakes. The 4 continued racing and earned a 95 SR in Feb. The 1 stopped racing in SEp. Now are we going to use it’s July pace line of July SR 84 TPR of 177 that makes it an also ran or bring it up to equal that of of the 4 SR 95 TPR 190which makes it a prime contender?
This is what I wrestle with and most of the time I do the upgrade and get say 8-1 on a 3-1 horse.
With the upgrade I have
#1 E 121 that’s 1 EPR,2 FFR, & 1 TPR I’m using Bris figures throughout.
#4 P 132
#6 P x12
It’s very close as 1 and 4 tied EPR and 1 was 2 better in TPR that both 4&6
Well see what happens, yesterday FFR was king.

Last edited by barryt; 03-13-2020 at 01:03 AM.
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Old 03-13-2020, 01:19 AM   #16
barryt
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TPRs as in PMTR are approx double speed figure as thy are based on 100 for EPR and 100 for FFR. I realize that the methodology has come along way since 1991 and the computer programs can easily compute compound pace figures that are more representative of the matchup. I’m just trying to get back to where I was and needed to know if I should adjust for grow up. The answer says I shouldn’t ,but I’m not convinced. Where I have to adjust ,I’ll just tread lightly at the windows TIL I get some data.
Tx for your efforts
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Old 03-13-2020, 10:00 AM   #17
Mitch44
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I believe you got it barryt, Glad you understand the difference with the SR verses TPR in RDSS which was what I thought you were doing.

In using Bris pace ratings for TPR, the Speed Rating and beaten lengths also differ. Regardless of distance Bris uses 2 points for each beaten length. Their SR are 1.5 for sprints and 1 for routes regardless of distance. Therefore there is less projecting and its more accurate with Bris pace than with Sartin TPR within RDSS.

Sartin and RDSS uses different adjustments for BL according to the distance being measures Or in other words the adjustment used for 4 F and 2F in TPR for a 6 F race is different than a 7F race where the increments are 4F and 3 F. Point is very much less accurate to project growth in RDSS than within BRIS.

As I said I do it and employ it. I always do it with Bris ratings. What I think you should do is forget about projecting SR to TPR as it compounds the problem. Just project the growth in Speed Ratings, than use that as a guide to whether or not their competitive by SR to the rest of the field. If so there is no need to convert to a Bris TPR. IMO converting to a TPR just compounds the possible error. I never convert to TPR just to a SR.

I looked at your race of todays 7th @ OP and IMO no. Here's why: #1 your using a 5.5 line to project to 6F. How is that done? Also in that line he was decelerating and once that starts no ones knows how accurate a 6F race will be. I.e, it may increase rapidly that last 1/2 F or may be able to hold it. Its a crapshoot. Once deceleration starts it generally doesn't improve. The line your using for the 4 is taken from a 6.5 line. This stuff works best when using similar lines and surfaces.

With that said, this is a tough race as 3 other horses have ran SR's in the 90's and a couple others in high 80's when breaking their maiden recently which means they could be anything and jump and win if they were not all out in those Md. wins. Something only the connections are aware of.

Getting very good odds on the #1 is critical considering the field and also the 1 is coming off a very long layoff of 181 days. That could be from injury or planned to allow it to mature.

Here my other analysis. you don't have to project the #1 horse. He has proven the distance and didn't decelerate that much in the race of 10 Aug. at 6.5F. The last part he decelerated rapidly. But look at the internal times of that race. At the stretch call he was 5 lg. off so I would day he ran this in 110 or 110.2 Same as that of the 4 at the same calendar period but also in a race with much faster internal, FR.'s than what the 4 did. So I would say he's a better horse.

The trainer for the 1 horse is very capable off a layoff, a plus. His workouts say ready. Prior to layoff he was given longer and slower workouts in prep for his route try. The only ? today is what odds you'll get. If you get the M/L odds of 8-1 I would bet it otherwise pass.

No need to project the 1 horse. When projecting consider like dis.'s and surfaces. Project using SR as a comparative and forget about converting to TPR.

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Old 03-13-2020, 01:34 PM   #18
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barryt


The 7 scratched.


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